larryepage wrote:
Based on my experience in the semiconductor industry, I've been convinced that the only (or at least the primary) reason that we have ever had half-frame cameras is that it is approximately four times as easy and one quarter as expensive to make IC chips of half the size. The industry would have had a much tougher time getting to where it is today if they had jumped in feet-first trying to build cameras around full-frame sensors. But the DX sensors were easier to make by a couple of miles, yet could be dropped into the familiar existing camera form factor with very little indigestion along the way.
We were spoiled to have come up during an era when costs of doing things were less and expectations of company performance were a lot lower. And there were no options for "taking pictures." So we were able to have 120 film in multiple flavors, 35mm, 16mm, InstaMatic, film discs, and several others without even talking about the professional and specialty formats. In today's shrinking market and unforgiving financial expectations, this level of variety and choice is not sustainable. So any format options are going to have to demonstrate that they will pull in customers that otherwise would not play the game.
My guess is that half-frame format is nearing the end of its days. It was introduced as a manufacturing compromise, and with full-frame sensors of 61MP now commonplace, it doesn't makes more sense to just reprogram customers to crop to a 30MP DX image than to continue to maintain one or multiple assembly lines to make cameras for a small group of customers and maintain the additional finished goods and parts inventory. I prepared for this day by buying a second D500 a few years ago. By the way...I do not shoot wildlife unless a rare opportunity arises, and the same is true of birds in flight. I just really like shooting my D500 when there is no reason to pull out the D850.
To answer the question that you are wanting to confront me with...M43 is a whole different story. It offers something saleable...meaningful and observable miniaturization and weight saving. It will stay. But I fully expect rationalization between M43 and one inch format. I'm not as comfortable talking about that, but my thought is that at some point the compact camera market is going to be surrendered the rest of the way to our pocket multipurpose devices.
So in the end, there will be two surviving formats, if we're lucky. Full-frame and one of the compact formats.
I'd love to be working for Nikon and sitting in on the meetings to see if my take on this is right or wrong. Maybe even contributing a little. Unfortunately, I don't, and you don't, and the people that feed the rumor mills don't. So we'll just have to wait and see.
Based on my experience in the semiconductor indust... (
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What you're saying is 100% technically true, but there are practical reasons why crop sensor cameras make more sense for certain genres of photography - particularly in wildlife - birding, macro and nature. Now if the Z8 turns out to be a Z500 embedded in a FF body by setting 1.5 crop mode that's fine too - having the best of both in one body is certainly a plus. But I think there are many in those genres who don't care about FF and don't want to pay a premium for that ability. For example, if the Z8 turns out to be $3700 at intro for example, and a "Z500" equivalent turns out to be $2000 at intro, someone like me isn't going to pay the $1700 premium for that privilege. As another example, the D850 did not kill D500 sales even though the D850 was almost a D500 in disguise in crop mode. The D500 had the slight edge in performance for sports/action/wildlife. I think it will boil down to pricing and perception in the end. We'll see pretty soon this year.