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The Covid-19 Threat
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Note: posting politics outside of the Attic is against UHH rules. Users that bring politics into this discussion will have their accounts banned from replying in this topic. Repeated violations will lead to account suspension.
 
Oct 9, 2020 08:09:33   #
JohnSwanda Loc: San Francisco
 
David Taylor wrote:
Why are these headers and footers only on this post?


It seems Admin has started doing it on threads in Chit Chat like this one which threaten to turn political.

Reply
Oct 9, 2020 09:57:31   #
DarthMicrowave
 
srt101fan wrote:
I am very interested in opinions that challenge my viewpoint.

How you judge the severity of the threat is a critical starting point for any discussion of the need for and value of countermeasures. I personally believe that the covid-19 threat is to be taken very seriously, especially by old folks like me, and that it is a much greater concern than the flu. I base this on my understanding of the following differences between covid-19 and the flu:

(a) Covid-19 is much more contagious than the flu
(b) Covid-19 is much deadlier than the flu
(c) Covid-19 survivors may have serious long-term health complications whereas flu patients generally don't
(d) We have vaccines for the flu but, at this time, none for covid-19

So, if you don't agree with my position and underlying rationale regarding the severity of the covid-19 pandemic, would you please tell me why you disagree?
I am very interested in opinions that challenge my... (show quote)


Appreciate good discourse in this (or almost any) topic these days...often hard to come by for some reason.
In response, I'd say I mostly agree with your overall position regarding people in your age range.
However, I think this IS a huge issue. Age matters and there isn't a 'one size fits all' answer. So to address your bullet points:

a - I don't know how we could know which is more contagious at this point. I suspect that Covid-19 is more contagious, but I also don't have a reason to think the stats are comparable. We've never done testing like this. Are there tons of people who would test positive if we did the same for the Flu? If companies made testing for the flu a prerequisite for entry to the office, would we find far more 'cases' that would otherwise go unnoticed. I suspect so.

b - Covid-19 is clearly more deadly than the Flu...for the elderly. Every reliable statistic I've seen that stratifies by age shows the opposite is true for the young. So I don't agree with your statement in general, only as it relates to older individuals (and possibly those with comorbidities).

c - I don't disagree with your comment on long-term effects. I've seen instances of 'long haulers' related to Covid that I have never heard of concerning flu. Whether long-term means a few weeks, month or years...I've never heard it used for the flu, so I imagine this is a phenomenon only related to Covid-19.

d - I'm not sure how to address the vaccine piece of this topic as it relates to the overall threat. First, they are very different viruses regarding how they mutate and how we are developing the respective vaccines. The mutations (and possible combinations of mutations) in the Flu are far greater than in Covid. I'm under the impression that the immunity for Sars-CoV2 will be similar to Sars-CoV1. Which appears to last quite a long time - 23 years so far. I wouldn't even really use the word immunity as it relates to the Flu vaccine (at least not in the same way). It may give protection, but they appear to be radically different.

So my conclusion is this, people should weigh the risks and determine what's right for them. If everyone is simply given the facts, I believe more people will be appropriately concerned - without mandates (like Sweden has shown).

As far as why this has been so hard to work through and so political, I suggest you watch this video (it's very long though): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P3SkTBfGzU&feature=emb_logo
There's also a transcript of it here: https://rationalground.com/governor-desantis-roundtable-experts-advocate-for-normal-life-for-young-people/
I recognize it's being done by a governor (so there's clearly a political party involved). But research the panel of scientists (from Stanford, Oxford, Harvard) who also mention other leading epidemiologists who have been more or less silenced for dissenting views. That's not how science works and is certainly why there is distrust in the public.

Reply
Oct 9, 2020 16:01:31   #
srt101fan
 
robertjerl wrote:
CDC figures on flu for last several years. Note CDC does not keep stats on flu they just take state numbers and "guesstimate" - in fact they don't record adult deaths from flu at all.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Here is the CDC guesstimate for total deaths in the 2017-2018 flu season in the US. Their preliminary number was 61,000 in the above link.
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

And this is with long term use of vaccines, established treatments etc. Not to mention how many people have antibodies etc from previous years.

Covid-19 cases up to yesterday = 7.6 million and 213K deaths.

So the flu seems to be much more contagious - but! - What if we took precautions every year at the start of flu season - no shut downs, just masks, sanitation etc in addition to the vaccines which vary in effectiveness from year to year CDC says flu vaccine average 40-60% effectiveness with a few years doing better when their pre flu season guess as to which strain to churn out vaccines for prove to be really good and as low as the 20's when they guess wrong.

I seem to remember several years ago the flu vaccine they put out in late summer/early fall was only about 20-22% and they actually rushed a different vaccine into production and started giving those shots in I believe it was Jan. I know Kaiser gave me two different vaccines a few months apart - I have asthma and so they have me Red Flagged for flu and pneumonia shots on a priority basis. Years ago I actually got e-mails on my Kaiser site when I didn't get one. That was some time ago, now each year the first time I see "flu vaccine" signs at my local Kaiser Clinic I get one. Since I have regular podiatry visits every 10 weeks I usually get my flu shot in the podiatrist's office. I go in for my regular foot checkup (diabetic - Kaiser pretty much insists my feet get checked regularly) and one of the nurses sticks her head in the exam room and asks if I have gotten my flu shot yet - then a few minutes later she is back and gives it to me. Even the Pharmacy gives them. Walk in and by the door is a table with a nurse or two or even a PA and a sign "Flu Shots". Scan my Kaiser ID card, get the shot and pick up the Rx at the same time.
CDC figures on flu for last several years. Note C... (show quote)


Confusing statistics! How can anyone make sense out of this. However, I still believe covid is a much bigger threat than the seasonal flu. Hard to forget the images of make-shift morgues in New York....

I would like to see data plotted on a graph that shows number of infected people in a given age group that had no symptoms, how many got over it easily, how many had lingering health issues, how many were hospitalized and how many died. I know, that's asking for too much!

Reply
 
 
Oct 9, 2020 16:36:42   #
robertjerl Loc: Corona, California
 
srt101fan wrote:
Confusing statistics! How can anyone make sense out of this. However, I still believe covid is a much bigger threat than the seasonal flu. Hard to forget the images of make-shift morgues in New York....

I would like to see data plotted on a graph that shows number of infected people in a given age group that had no symptoms, how many got over it easily, how many had lingering health issues, how many were hospitalized and how many died. I know, that's asking for too much!


You asked about how contagious not death rate, I was commenting on how contagious and the death figures are just part of the two posts.

In a given flu season a lot more people are ID'd with the flu than have been ID'd with Covid so far. Could be a matter of testing or it could be the facts.

Fewer % of those infected seem to die of flu than of Covid. But more people seem to get the flu. And how many people get a disease is the criteria for contagious, not the number of deaths.

As to the refrigerated trucks at the hospitals to hold bodies, that can and does happen in many places and times - hospital morgues are not like in TV and the movies with rows of drawers to hold many bodies - they have room for very few bodies since most go on to the ME/Coroner or a funeral home fairly quickly. It is just it happened to several hospitals at once and due to the news flow it got shown a lot. If it had been a one time, one location incident that over loaded local morgues for a few days it probably would not have made the news that there were refrigerated trucks used for the over flow or to transport the bodies to another morgue.

Reply
Oct 9, 2020 18:10:57   #
srt101fan
 
robertjerl wrote:
You asked about how contagious not death rate, I was commenting on how contagious and the death figures are just part of the two posts.

In a given flu season a lot more people are ID'd with the flu than have been ID'd with Covid so far. Could be a matter of testing or it could be the facts.

Fewer % of those infected seem to die of flu than of Covid. But more people seem to get the flu. And how many people get a disease is the criteria for contagious, not the number of deaths.

As to the refrigerated trucks at the hospitals to hold bodies, that can and does happen in many places and times - hospital morgues are not like in TV and the movies with rows of drawers to hold many bodies - they have room for very few bodies since most go on to the ME/Coroner or a funeral home fairly quickly. It is just it happened to several hospitals at once and due to the news flow it got shown a lot. If it had been a one time, one location incident that over loaded local morgues for a few days it probably would not have made the news that there were refrigerated trucks used for the over flow or to transport the bodies to another morgue.
You asked about how contagious not death rate, I w... (show quote)


My reference to "how can anyone make sense of this" was meant as a general expression of frustration - not taking issue with anything you said.

A complicating factor in assessing the severity of the covid health threat is defining how seriously it affects an infected individual. And that effect can apparently range from no effect, to mild symptoms, to serious illness, to hospitalization, to death. It seems to me the seasonal flu is not quite as varied in its effect on the human body.

Reply
Oct 9, 2020 18:21:50   #
Bill_de Loc: US
 
Has anything new and newsworthy come out about Covid-19 in the past month?
It seems that everything I read (here and in the media), as well as what I see on TV news is just a rehash of the previous day/week/month.

---

Reply
Oct 9, 2020 18:41:46   #
srt101fan
 
DarthMicrowave wrote:
Appreciate good discourse in this (or almost any) topic these days...often hard to come by for some reason.
In response, I'd say I mostly agree with your overall position regarding people in your age range.
However, I think this IS a huge issue. Age koomatters and there isn't a 'one size fits all' answer. So to address your bullet points:

a - I don't know how we could know which is more contagious at this point. I suspect that Covid-19 is more contagious, but I also don't have a reason to think the stats are comparable. We've never done testing like this. Are there tons of people who would test positive if we did the same for the Flu? If companies made testing for the flu a prerequisite for entry to the office, would we find far more 'cases' that would otherwise go unnoticed. I suspect so.

b - Covid-19 is clearly more deadly than the Flu...for the elderly. Every reliable statistic I've seen that stratifies by age shows the opposite is true for the young. So I don't agree with your statement in general, only as it relates to older individuals (and possibly those with comorbidities).

c - I don't disagree with your comment on long-term effects. I've seen instances of 'long haulers' related to Covid that I have never heard of concerning flu. Whether long-term means a few weeks, month or years...I've never heard it used for the flu, so I imagine this is a phenomenon only related to Covid-19.

d - I'm not sure how to address the vaccine piece of this topic as it relates to the overall threat. First, they are very different viruses regarding how they mutate and how we are developing the respective vaccines. The mutations (and possible combinations of mutations) in the Flu are far greater than in Covid. I'm under the impression that the immunity for Sars-CoV2 will be similar to Sars-CoV1. Which appears to last quite a long time - 23 years so far. I wouldn't even really use the word immunity as it relates to the Flu vaccine (at least not in the same way). It may give protection, but they appear to be radically different.

So my conclusion is this, people should weigh the risks and determine what's right for them. If everyone is simply given the facts, I believe more people will be appropriately concerned - without mandates (like Sweden has shown).

As far as why this has been so hard to work through and so political, I suggest you watch this video (it's very long though): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P3SkTBfGzU&feature=emb_logo
There's also a transcript of it here: https://rationalground.com/governor-desantis-roundtable-experts-advocate-for-normal-life-for-young-people/
I recognize it's being done by a governor (so there's clearly a political party involved). But research the panel of scientists (from Stanford, Oxford, Harvard) who also mention other leading epidemiologists who have been more or less silenced for dissenting views. That's not how science works and is certainly why there is distrust in the public.
Appreciate good discourse in this (or almost any) ... (show quote)


Thank you for your thoughtful post responding to the specific factors I used to gauge the relative severity of covid and flu. You raise some good points. And I will look at the Desantis roundtable discussion, thanks for the links.

Oh yeah, Sweden, what really is the bottom line on their approach and experience....🤔

Reply
 
 
Oct 9, 2020 22:14:58   #
robertjerl Loc: Corona, California
 
Bill_de wrote:
Has anything new and newsworthy come out about Covid-19 in the past month?
It seems that everything I read (here and in the media), as well as what I see on TV news is just a rehash of the previous day/week/month.

---


The news is finally talking about how even with a lot of new cases in the new wave the numbers/% going to the hospital, on ventilators and dyeing seems to be down. (Let us hope it stays that way.) So either this virus is following the standard pattern and mutating to a less deadly strain or they are making very rapid progress in treatment to keep it from getting bad.

Once long ago I read an article that stated over 600 viruses around the world were known to cause what we call the "common cold". (And everyone of them was once something much worse long ago.) Any given area only has a small % of them with some areas where you find a lot of immigrants from different parts of the world having more because they came with the people. You catch one of them, get over it but still have the antibodies etc. After a while you get fewer and fewer colds unless someone brings in a new virus from elsewhere. But move to a place far enough away that the local virus strains are different you start catching colds again.

I also read that the bases in Antarctica the only colds are newly arrived people or someone who catches one from them. Then until someone brings in a new virus or someone goes out to a place with viruses they haven't had before they don't have colds. In general the place is just too cold for a large community of local viruses to thrive.

Reply
Oct 9, 2020 22:48:47   #
srt101fan
 
robertjerl wrote:
The news is finally talking about how even with a lot of new cases in the new wave the numbers/% going to the hospital, on ventilators and dyeing seems to be down. (Let us hope it stays that way.) So either this virus is following the standard pattern and mutating to a less deadly strain or they are making very rapid progress in treatment to keep it from getting bad.

Once long ago I read an article that stated over 600 viruses around the world were known to cause what we call the "common cold". (And everyone of them was once something much worse long ago.) Any given area only has a small % of them with some areas where you find a lot of immigrants from different parts of the world having more because they came with the people. You catch one of them, get over it but still have the antibodies etc. After a while you get fewer and fewer colds unless someone brings in a new virus from elsewhere. But move to a place far enough away that the local virus strains are different you start catching colds again.

I also read that the bases in Antarctica the only colds are newly arrived people or someone who catches one from them. Then until someone brings in a new virus or someone goes out to a place with viruses they haven't had before they don't have colds. In general the place is just too cold for a large community of local viruses to thrive.
The news is finally talking about how even with a ... (show quote)


Interesting....

Reply
Oct 10, 2020 04:18:25   #
David Taylor
 
JohnSwanda wrote:
It seems Admin has started doing it on threads in Chit Chat like this one which threaten to turn political.


Ok, thanks. First one I've noticed.

Reply
Oct 10, 2020 06:54:55   #
Bill_de Loc: US
 
robertjerl wrote:
The news is finally talking about how even with a lot of new cases in the new wave the numbers/% going to the hospital, on ventilators and dyeing seems to be down. (Let us hope it stays that way.) So either this virus is following the standard pattern and mutating to a less deadly strain or they are making very rapid progress in treatment to keep it from getting bad.

Once long ago I read an article that stated over 600 viruses around the world were known to cause what we call the "common cold". (And everyone of them was once something much worse long ago.) Any given area only has a small % of them with some areas where you find a lot of immigrants from different parts of the world having more because they came with the people. You catch one of them, get over it but still have the antibodies etc. After a while you get fewer and fewer colds unless someone brings in a new virus from elsewhere. But move to a place far enough away that the local virus strains are different you start catching colds again.

I also read that the bases in Antarctica the only colds are newly arrived people or someone who catches one from them. Then until someone brings in a new virus or someone goes out to a place with viruses they haven't had before they don't have colds. In general the place is just too cold for a large community of local viruses to thrive.
The news is finally talking about how even with a ... (show quote)


Thanks Robert

---

Reply
 
 
Oct 10, 2020 14:04:57   #
robertjerl Loc: Corona, California
 
Bill_de wrote:
Thanks Robert

---


You are welcome. The fact that different viruses in different places cause "colds" is also why people on vacation or a business trip often get a cold. They met new viruses they had no anti-bodies for. That guy that sneezed in line to pay for gas at the truck stop on the interstate, the class of school kids on a field trip in the National Park or those guys from the Paris Office at the corporate convention. Remember, one or two of them had the sniffles - and now you do too.

Reply
Oct 11, 2020 11:36:49   #
srt101fan
 
robertjerl wrote:
You are welcome. The fact that different viruses in different places cause "colds" is also why people on vacation or a business trip often get a cold. They met new viruses they had no anti-bodies for. That guy that sneezed in line to pay for gas at the truck stop on the interstate, the class of school kids on a field trip in the National Park or those guys from the Paris Office at the corporate convention. Remember, one or two of them had the sniffles - and now you do too.


Reminds me of Americans traveling to Mexico getting "Montezuma's Revenge"! But I've heard that travelers to the U.S. may also get diarrhea because they encounter bugs they're not used to at home....

Reply
Oct 23, 2020 17:22:03   #
ILFarmer
 
You get no argument from me. I am not a doctor, but I think you are right on every point.

Reply
Oct 23, 2020 17:36:17   #
srt101fan
 
ILFarmer wrote:
You get no argument from me. I am not a doctor, but I think you are right on every point.


Thank you!

Reply
 
Note: posting politics outside of the Attic is against UHH rules. Users that bring politics into this discussion will have their accounts banned from replying in this topic. Repeated violations will lead to account suspension.
 
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