Just how contagious is COVID-19 (Page 14): In the beginning of March, unemployment was 4.4% and today it is nearing 18%.

Madchemist Loc: Nesbit, MS

rehess wrote:

But there are other factors that have to be consid... (show quote)

In the beginning of March, unemployment was 4.4% and today it is nearing 18%. https://fortune.com/2020/04/16/us-unemployment-rate-numbers-claims-this-week-total/

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

jhkfly wrote:

I agree with you, Daryl: far too much time, energy and money has been expended through knee-jerk reaction to alarming computer models that have missed the mark widely concerning dramatic global cooling decades ago, dramatic global warming last decade, running out of "fossil fuels", and now this global pandemic.

We need ever-current data accumulation and rapid processing to understand and respond effectively to this threat.

Exactly on point jhkfly. In addition, I would like to add a lot of critical thinking before going off the deep end over any model projections. Watch for all the "qualifier" and wishy-washy, weasel words they use with their predictions - maybe, might, could be, etc.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Madchemist wrote:

The amount does not seem unreasonalbe. If we have no social distancing and the rate of infection doubles every 5 days (at its worst it was doubling every 3 days) then if we start with 100 infections today (sure we have more) then we would be over 6 million by June 10th. That is typical exponential growth for a biological system. Of course there should still be some form of social distancing during this summer, so that will help mitigate the growth.

Mathematically Madchemist, that is correct. But it is based on an assumption that has not been proven to be true - the rate of infection doubles every 5 days. Here is where the projections have a high sensitivity to a small change. Reduce the rate of change to only 4 days and the results drop dramatically. Make it 2 days and the results are drastically smaller still.

As with other viruses, social distancing may reduce the number of infected people for awhile. But herd immunity, either by surviving the virus or building immunity through a viable vaccine, will actually protect people from the disease the virus presents.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Madchemist wrote:

Or perhaps the models were correct and people listened and the actions mitigated the infection. As we see how our behaviors change things, the models are modified. The predictions went from 1 million to 50 to 100K when all is said and done. We just have to look back 100 years to see how these things work.

While that is possible Madchemist, It is also possible, based on two recent studies done in California and New York City, that herd immunity is working well as those studies indicate that a large number of people have actually been infected and recovered, but they were never counted in the reported infected numbers.

The CDC is also reporting that the peak for deaths related to COVID-19 occurred to weeks ago and is on the downward side rather than still pending as many models are predicting.

It is the assumptions underlying these models that we need to be aware of when determining what the results actually mean.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

jhkfly wrote:

I hope the data miners producing models will include the effects of warming spring weather on infection rates and dispersion!

I do too jhkfly. However, I doubt that will occur because we don't know enough about this particular virus and its many mutations/versions yet. One study indicated that heat an humidity does kill the virus, but the temperature had to be over 140 degrees F (in a laboratory setting) to work. Time will tell if it acts more like the influenza viruses.

The good news is that the CDC's reported deaths due to COVID-19 already hit its peak and is on the downward slide, similar to H1N1 this year.

Daryl

rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA

Daryls wrote:

I do too jhkfly. However, I doubt that will occur ... (show quote)

Deaths per day reached a peak, but we are still loosing over a thousand per day and so far is not declining nearly as fast as it went up. As you have said, only time will tell.

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

rehess wrote:

Deaths per day reached a peak, but we are still loosing over a thousand per day and so far is not declining nearly as fast as it went up. As you have said, only time will tell.

Roger that rehess. Your point follows along with what I have been saying here for a few months - the numbers being reported need to be considered in context BEFORE we decide to act upon them. We both stated accurate and correct, data-driven numbers. But their interpretations can be the exact opposite of each other.

According to the CDC, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/, deaths for the week of 11 April were 9.463, while the death count for the week of 18 April was 3,582. That is about 450 per day and going down. I expect the week of 25 April will be even lower. Let's hope so. I too would love for this to be over.

Daryl

Madchemist Loc: Nesbit, MS

Daryls wrote:

Mathematically Madchemist, that is correct. But it... (show quote)

If you drop the doubling to 4 or two days, the rate goes up and the time to 4 million is shorter. There are no assumpitons. The rate of infection initial was a double every 3 days. Thankfully that has slowed down. But it is still at a rate where you can reach the number by September. This is basic biological exponential growth.

Madchemist Loc: Nesbit, MS

Daryls wrote:

Roger that rehess. Your point follows along with w... (show quote)

I think there is so many ideas going on here that the conversation is a bit mixed. You had wondered if 4 million infections by September was reasonable. That is what I am talking about here. I also think that if states re-open without the curving going down things could tick up. I was looking at a map and I can tell you that the North East is really suffering. I am in the mid-south near Memphis. Not nearly as bad. If we re-open not much will change for me. I will socially distance. Probably continue with take out rather than go into a resturante. My wife has a heart condition and I am diabetic. So we are at risk. I believe that shut downs were necessary to keep it somewhat under control and I do believe it worked. I know other people think differently and that is fine. I think we all can agree we want things to go back to normal.

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Madchemist wrote:

If you drop the doubling to 4 or two days, the rate goes up and the time to 4 million is shorter. There are no assumpitons. The rate of infection initial was a double every 3 days. Thankfully that has slowed down. But it is still at a rate where you can reach the number by September. This is basic biological exponential growth.

Yes, the assumption is that what occurred over those particular initial days, with the way we were identifying the infections then, continued to be the same now. Is it the same now? No, it is vastly different. Therefore, the prediction is, by definition, going to be wrong - not reflecting reality today or in the future. Bad assumption equals bad results. Right?

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Madchemist wrote:

I think there is so many ideas going on here that ... (show quote)

Madchemist,

4 million by September may be reasonable given that there are a lot of folks who have been infected already, but they have not shown up in the reported numbers yet. So the actual count in September may even be much higher (up to 85 times more according to the recent USC study). Should this prove to be true, what would that say about those early model predictions?

The social distancing was not designed to control the infection and keep us safe so much as it was designed to spread the infection over a longer period of time (flattening the curve). We did that to reduce the patient load on our hospitals while they were already treating influenza infections from the current pandemic (H1N1) and other serious illnesses.

I live in Waco, Texas; not much will be changing for me either. Our infections are low too. Deaths from COVID-19 here are only 4 so far. So we are pretty safe here. I do chores, shopping etc., for my older neighbors who have underlying medical conditions so they can stay safer, and under less stress, during these trying times. We do what we can.

Though I don't have those medical conditions, I have been taking precautions for more than 40 years, including keeping away from most people, especially those that are or appear to be sick, and washing my hands often. I will continue doing so for the remainder of my life (I am almost 67). That includes eating well, exercising, reducing stress, sleeping 7 - 8 hours, taking my daily vitamins, etc.

I am sorry you and your wife have medical issues at this time. You are both in my daily prayers tobe protected and safe.

Daryl

Paul Diamond Loc: Atlanta, GA, USA

Medical science is still early into the learning curve about Covid-19. No idea how long it well be before we are at least 1/2 way to knowing how effective our procedures, medicines, vaccines, etc. are actually working.

Suggest getting an update directly from the CDC, Dr. Faucci (sp?) for guidelines we can live doing and live with.

David Martin Loc: Cary, NC

There is actually a good bit of news on Covid-19 out of Atlanta. A study of 6 hospitals found the mortality of critically ill Covid patients requiring mechanical ventilation, to be no higher than mortality in non-Covid cases of respiratory failure. In other words, when hospitals have enough personnel, ventilators, medications and PPE, Covid is not more lethal than other causes of respiratory failure. The extremely high ICU mortality seen in Europe and NYC is likely due to overwhelmed healthcare system.

boberic Loc: Quiet Corner, Connecticut. Ex long Islander

richandtd wrote:

This is Sobering...
Posted by one of my high school friends Gaye Elder Hodge who is a nurse in the Petoskey or the "up north" area of Michigan (for those of you who are unfamiliar). I hope my friends and family who are pushing back against our governor's shelter in place orders read up and think twice before they complain about not being able to go to their 2nd home or the interruptions in their everyday routine. Be informed, stay safe and stay home! PLEASE

Let me introduce myself: I am a practicing ER doctor with a Bachelors degree in cell and molecular biology/genetics and a Masters degree in public health in addition to my doctorate.
COVID is not a flu. Not even a little. Here are reasons why:
1. It is a separate species. It is no more like influenza than you are like a hippo. DIFFERENT SPECIES.
2. It is an airborne virus. This means the tiny droplets can stay in the air for a full 2 hours. So if a person coughed in aisle 4 of Target 1.5 hours ago, they may be home now but their covid cloud is still hanging there just waiting for you to walk by and take a breath. Influenza is not an airborne virus. It is droplet spread- meaning someone has to directly crop dust you with their sneeze to get you sick. Covid is much more contagious.
3. Covid is more virulent. Virulence factor is a measure of how catchy something is. For example, the flu is like beer. It takes a bunch to get you drunk. Covid is more like tequila - A little goes a long way. You need to suck up a lot of flu particles to actually catch the flu; with covid, even a few particles is enough to infect you.
4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter.
5. Covid has a longer duration of illness than flu. With covid, you have a 5-9 days of blissful asymptomatic contagiousness. This then turns into about 1 week of cough and overall feeling like hell but still surviving. Week 2 is when things hit the fan and people end up unable to breathe and on a ventilator. Many stay on the vent for up to 15 days. 5 days incubating+7 kinda sick days + 15 days on a ventilator makes for 27 days of virus spreading illness, (assuming your don’t just die of massive asphyxiation and body-wide collapse from overwhelming infection somewhere in that last week).The flu has an average incubation of 1-2 days and sick time of 7 days for a total of 9 infectious days. In the world of deadly viruses, that 18 extra days might as well be a millennia.
6. Covid is more deadly. A LOT more deadly. The flu has about a 0.2% mortality rate, meaning 2 of every thousand people who get sick with flu will die. On the contrary, the death rate from covid is reportedly 2%, so 10 times more deadly than flu. Ten times more death seems like a lot more death to me. Whats more worrisome is that 2% is actually incorrect because it doesn’t kill kids so that skews the average. With covid, age is a major factor in survival. If we don’t include people under 30, the death rate for adults is on average 4.5%. 9 out of every 200 adults that get this will die from it. Do you know 200 adults? Do you think losing 9 of them is no big deal? Since mortality increases with age in covid, the risk gets worse as you get older so if we put 100 grannies in a room with covid, only 85 would make it out alive to make pies and tell great stories of the old days... and that just sucks.
I hope that helps to clarify why covid is in no way a flu, why you are in no way a hippo, and why staying home is the only way for non-essential people to do their part while I spend my days at work covered in a plastic poncho, sucking air through a stuffy respirator mask, leaving my scrubs in my driveway, showering the covid off at 4am when I get in, and thinking to myself “now do u still think it was just a flu?” as I risk my own life with my face 2 inches from their highly contagious, gasping mouth while I slide the plastic tube down their throat and start up the ventilator.

This is Sobering... br Posted by one of my high sc... (show quote)

Thanks for a well reasoned evaluation. That said--we are in the middle of a very interesting study. As a result of the protests in many cities, there have been many hundreds of thousands of people ignoring the safety guidlines. This is an uncontrolled study and as such open to many critisisims as to it' s scientific value. However if there is no "spike" in the increase of the contagion a few things can be learned as to the viability of the contagion and the spread of the virus. We will know the result of this "study" in about 10 days or less Just a guess as to the outcome. Since the overwhelming number of victims of the Virus are over 65 and the vast number of protesters are under 65, there will be very little uptick in the number of new cases. This is a guess, of course. but the results may change how we "open up" the country.

jhkfly

I came across an interesting comment a couple of weeks ago on the transmissibility of this virus and the likelihood of being infected by it. Apparently there are three factors that determine whether exposure to the virus results in just some antibodies being produced or serious infection and death: a) density, b) distance and c) time. Concentration of the virus must be high enough to overcome one's immune system which normally can handle a certain amount of exposure to viruses.

a) If you are in a car or airplane, travelling for several hours with someone who has become ill with Covid 19 and the windows are closed, the concentration of virus in the airspace around you will become high enough that transmission to you becomes inescapable. The same is true if you're stuck in an office, a room or even a small house or apartment with one or more Covid-infected persons for more than a short time.

b) Similarly if you are facing someone, say two to twenty feet away with your mouth and eyes wide open and someone infected and maskless sneezes directly at you, you are likely to catch some droplets with a high enough concentration of the virus in that short time to make you sick too. What happens to you then depends on the strength of your own immune system.

c) On the other hand, if walking down the street or along the aisle of a Wal-Mart store (with its large volume of moving air) you pass close by someone already infected, the brief time of exposure will likely not provide a high enough concentration of the virus to harm you. The same is true walking on the beach or in a park. Even a slight breeze will reduce any exposure time or concentration below danger level. The ludicrous sight of several police officers standing maskless within two feet of each other while arresting an unmasked surfer (who had been alone on the ocean!) for defying the stay-at-home orders testifies to the idiocy and overreach of some authoritarians and some hypocritical (or doltish?) cops.