Just how contagious is COVID-19
Apr 20, 2020 09:53:54 #
This is Sobering...
Posted by one of my high school friends Gaye Elder Hodge who is a nurse in the Petoskey or the "up north" area of Michigan (for those of you who are unfamiliar). I hope my friends and family who are pushing back against our governor's shelter in place orders read up and think twice before they complain about not being able to go to their 2nd home or the interruptions in their everyday routine. Be informed, stay safe and stay home! PLEASE
Let me introduce myself: I am a practicing ER doctor with a Bachelors degree in cell and molecular biology/genetics and a Masters degree in public health in addition to my doctorate.
COVID is not a flu. Not even a little. Here are reasons why:
1. It is a separate species. It is no more like influenza than you are like a hippo. DIFFERENT SPECIES.
2. It is an airborne virus. This means the tiny droplets can stay in the air for a full 2 hours. So if a person coughed in aisle 4 of Target 1.5 hours ago, they may be home now but their covid cloud is still hanging there just waiting for you to walk by and take a breath. Influenza is not an airborne virus. It is droplet spread- meaning someone has to directly crop dust you with their sneeze to get you sick. Covid is much more contagious.
3. Covid is more virulent. Virulence factor is a measure of how catchy something is. For example, the flu is like beer. It takes a bunch to get you drunk. Covid is more like tequila - A little goes a long way. You need to suck up a lot of flu particles to actually catch the flu; with covid, even a few particles is enough to infect you.
4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter.
5. Covid has a longer duration of illness than flu. With covid, you have a 5-9 days of blissful asymptomatic contagiousness. This then turns into about 1 week of cough and overall feeling like hell but still surviving. Week 2 is when things hit the fan and people end up unable to breathe and on a ventilator. Many stay on the vent for up to 15 days. 5 days incubating+7 kinda sick days + 15 days on a ventilator makes for 27 days of virus spreading illness, (assuming your don’t just die of massive asphyxiation and body-wide collapse from overwhelming infection somewhere in that last week).The flu has an average incubation of 1-2 days and sick time of 7 days for a total of 9 infectious days. In the world of deadly viruses, that 18 extra days might as well be a millennia.
6. Covid is more deadly. A LOT more deadly. The flu has about a 0.2% mortality rate, meaning 2 of every thousand people who get sick with flu will die. On the contrary, the death rate from covid is reportedly 2%, so 10 times more deadly than flu. Ten times more death seems like a lot more death to me. Whats more worrisome is that 2% is actually incorrect because it doesn’t kill kids so that skews the average. With covid, age is a major factor in survival. If we don’t include people under 30, the death rate for adults is on average 4.5%. 9 out of every 200 adults that get this will die from it. Do you know 200 adults? Do you think losing 9 of them is no big deal? Since mortality increases with age in covid, the risk gets worse as you get older so if we put 100 grannies in a room with covid, only 85 would make it out alive to make pies and tell great stories of the old days... and that just sucks.
I hope that helps to clarify why covid is in no way a flu, why you are in no way a hippo, and why staying home is the only way for non-essential people to do their part while I spend my days at work covered in a plastic poncho, sucking air through a stuffy respirator mask, leaving my scrubs in my driveway, showering the covid off at 4am when I get in, and thinking to myself “now do u still think it was just a flu?” as I risk my own life with my face 2 inches from their highly contagious, gasping mouth while I slide the plastic tube down their throat and start up the ventilator.
Posted by one of my high school friends Gaye Elder Hodge who is a nurse in the Petoskey or the "up north" area of Michigan (for those of you who are unfamiliar). I hope my friends and family who are pushing back against our governor's shelter in place orders read up and think twice before they complain about not being able to go to their 2nd home or the interruptions in their everyday routine. Be informed, stay safe and stay home! PLEASE
Let me introduce myself: I am a practicing ER doctor with a Bachelors degree in cell and molecular biology/genetics and a Masters degree in public health in addition to my doctorate.
COVID is not a flu. Not even a little. Here are reasons why:
1. It is a separate species. It is no more like influenza than you are like a hippo. DIFFERENT SPECIES.
2. It is an airborne virus. This means the tiny droplets can stay in the air for a full 2 hours. So if a person coughed in aisle 4 of Target 1.5 hours ago, they may be home now but their covid cloud is still hanging there just waiting for you to walk by and take a breath. Influenza is not an airborne virus. It is droplet spread- meaning someone has to directly crop dust you with their sneeze to get you sick. Covid is much more contagious.
3. Covid is more virulent. Virulence factor is a measure of how catchy something is. For example, the flu is like beer. It takes a bunch to get you drunk. Covid is more like tequila - A little goes a long way. You need to suck up a lot of flu particles to actually catch the flu; with covid, even a few particles is enough to infect you.
4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter.
5. Covid has a longer duration of illness than flu. With covid, you have a 5-9 days of blissful asymptomatic contagiousness. This then turns into about 1 week of cough and overall feeling like hell but still surviving. Week 2 is when things hit the fan and people end up unable to breathe and on a ventilator. Many stay on the vent for up to 15 days. 5 days incubating+7 kinda sick days + 15 days on a ventilator makes for 27 days of virus spreading illness, (assuming your don’t just die of massive asphyxiation and body-wide collapse from overwhelming infection somewhere in that last week).The flu has an average incubation of 1-2 days and sick time of 7 days for a total of 9 infectious days. In the world of deadly viruses, that 18 extra days might as well be a millennia.
6. Covid is more deadly. A LOT more deadly. The flu has about a 0.2% mortality rate, meaning 2 of every thousand people who get sick with flu will die. On the contrary, the death rate from covid is reportedly 2%, so 10 times more deadly than flu. Ten times more death seems like a lot more death to me. Whats more worrisome is that 2% is actually incorrect because it doesn’t kill kids so that skews the average. With covid, age is a major factor in survival. If we don’t include people under 30, the death rate for adults is on average 4.5%. 9 out of every 200 adults that get this will die from it. Do you know 200 adults? Do you think losing 9 of them is no big deal? Since mortality increases with age in covid, the risk gets worse as you get older so if we put 100 grannies in a room with covid, only 85 would make it out alive to make pies and tell great stories of the old days... and that just sucks.
I hope that helps to clarify why covid is in no way a flu, why you are in no way a hippo, and why staying home is the only way for non-essential people to do their part while I spend my days at work covered in a plastic poncho, sucking air through a stuffy respirator mask, leaving my scrubs in my driveway, showering the covid off at 4am when I get in, and thinking to myself “now do u still think it was just a flu?” as I risk my own life with my face 2 inches from their highly contagious, gasping mouth while I slide the plastic tube down their throat and start up the ventilator.
Apr 20, 2020 10:03:28 #
Apr 20, 2020 10:17:25 #
Apr 20, 2020 20:54:24 #
Excellent post - should be a wake up call for those that think the danger is overblown and want to get back to work ASAP regardless of the risk (like the governor of Georgia).
Apr 20, 2020 22:36:02 #
TriX wrote:
Excellent post - should be a wake up call for those that think the danger is overblown and want to get back to work ASAP regardless of the risk (like the governor of Georgia).
So you want to get a wake up call when you wake up DEAD broke? And the country is DEAD broke. Guess what, a country that is DEAD broke isn't a country.
Apr 20, 2020 22:42:59 #
Retired CPO wrote:
So you want to get a wake up call when you wake up DEAD broke? And the country is DEAD broke. Guess what, a country that is DEAD broke isn't a country.
The US isn't dead broke.
Our wealth is not in oil - which has little value right now.
Our wealth is not in gold - although we still have some in our vaults {were some other countries have US dollars}
Our wealth does not come from what our people produce
Our wealth is in our people themselves - and we are going to save as many of them as we are able.
Apr 20, 2020 23:36:28 #
Retired CPO wrote:
So you want to get a wake up call when you wake up DEAD broke? And the country is DEAD broke. Guess what, a country that is DEAD broke isn't a country.
You do whatever you think is best for you and everyone you come in contact with and is in compliance with the laws wherever you live. For me and my wife, we are in our 70s, I have heart disease and another grandchild on the way (who I hope to see), so we are staying home. I prefer to die in my own bed in my own home if possible, not alone on a vent in an ICU. I can tell you from having had two heart attacks, that when you’re lying on a gurney in the ER fighting for your life, you don’t give a damn about your bank balance. Once you’ve had that experience, it puts everything else in perspective. I hope you avoid it.
Apr 21, 2020 05:39:49 #
chrissybabe
Loc: New Zealand
Retired CPO wrote:
So you want to get a wake up call when you wake up DEAD broke? And the country is DEAD broke. Guess what, a country that is DEAD broke isn't a country.
No, you end up being a province of China !!
Apr 21, 2020 06:24:30 #
exakta56
Loc: Orford,New Hampshire
The good doctor takes time out of his heavy schedule to apprise us with the full impact of this virus and most see the value of his effort. But, we will always have a few who see the virtue of good health, and the preservation of family as secondary to the all mighty dollar or an infringement on their 'rights'. Curiously, these contrary voices often come from people who spent their lives in the military and have that special attitude that seems rampant with them. By the way, I served four year in the Navy so I feel I have a pretty good idea of what I'm talking about.
Apr 21, 2020 06:26:04 #
Since there has been relatively little testing for covid-19 and no existing statistics to fall back on, how do they come up with a figure like 2% mortality rate? There could be millions of people that were infected and got over it without any medical intervention. Wouldn't that drastically reduce the mortality percentage?
I'm not saying there isn't a big problem and we should all do what we have to to stay safe. I just wonder how all the facts are determined.
---
---
I'm not saying there isn't a big problem and we should all do what we have to to stay safe. I just wonder how all the facts are determined.
---
---
Apr 21, 2020 06:52:23 #
Great post.
How do we forward it to major vacillating political leaders living in DC? When that's figured out, add that this virus will be lethal until a successful vaccine is developed...if it doesn't mutate (a minor habit of viruses, I understand). It's more than a couple of sentences, so it might not be read.
How do we forward it to major vacillating political leaders living in DC? When that's figured out, add that this virus will be lethal until a successful vaccine is developed...if it doesn't mutate (a minor habit of viruses, I understand). It's more than a couple of sentences, so it might not be read.
Apr 21, 2020 07:50:34 #
daldds wrote:
Great post.
How do we forward it to major vacillating political leaders living in DC? When that's figured out, add that this virus will be lethal until a successful vaccine is developed...if it doesn't mutate (a minor habit of viruses, I understand). It's more than a couple of sentences, so it might not be read.
How do we forward it to major vacillating political leaders living in DC? When that's figured out, add that this virus will be lethal until a successful vaccine is developed...if it doesn't mutate (a minor habit of viruses, I understand). It's more than a couple of sentences, so it might not be read.
Don't leave out the Major on NYC.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/the-mistakes-that-turned-new-york-into-an-epicenter-of-the-coronavirus-epidemic-090040375.html
Apr 21, 2020 08:43:13 #
rehess wrote:
The US isn't dead broke.
Our wealth is not in oil - which has little value right now.
Our wealth is not in gold - although we still have some in our vaults {were some other countries have US dollars}
Our wealth does not come from what our people produce
Our wealth is in our people themselves - and we are going to save as many of them as we are able.
Our wealth is not in oil - which has little value right now.
Our wealth is not in gold - although we still have some in our vaults {were some other countries have US dollars}
Our wealth does not come from what our people produce
Our wealth is in our people themselves - and we are going to save as many of them as we are able.
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍ours too!!!!!
Apr 21, 2020 08:48:41 #
richandtd wrote:
This is Sobering... br Posted by one of my high sc... (show quote)
Terrifying article that has been published elsewhere. Interesting that the writer states he is an MD with a string of letters following that. He never gives his name or medical group asociation. Could this be fear mongering. Stay well all.
Apr 21, 2020 08:51:28 #
It's impossible to calculate an accurate mortality rate if you only have data on the number of deaths (numerator) without knowing the number of infections (denominator). Recently released studies indicate the number of infections has been massively understated due to inadequate testing, leading to estimates that the actual mortality rate is more likely in the range of .1% to .1.5%.
If you want to reply, then register here. Registration is free and your account is created instantly, so you can post right away.