Sunnely Loc: Wisconsin

UPDATE C****AV***S C****-**: March 1, 2020 @ 12:00 pm ET

NOTE: There is an ongoing investigation to determine more about this outbreak. This is a rapidly evolving situation.

HERE ARE THE NEW NUMBERS (INFECTED CASES AND DEATHS) ON C****-** AS OF MARCH 1, 2020 12:00 pm ET (Listed are countries that are making significant changes in number of cases/deaths and the US).

The c****av***s C****-** has now affected 67 countries and territories around the world and 1 international conveyance (the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan). Countries reporting their first cases of C****-** in the past 24 hours are: Dominican Republic, a 62-year old Italian citizen who entered the country on February 22nd. Armenia reported, 29-year-old, who arrived in the former Soviet nation on Friday, went to a doctor because he was not feeling well. Dominican Republic, a 62-year old Italian citizen who entered the country on February 22nd. Czech Republic with first 3 cases reported. C****-** is now present in every continent except Antarctica.

WORLDWIDE: Infected cases: 88,282; Deaths: 3,000; Recovered: 42,728

CHINA: Infected cases: 79,828 (+577 past 24 hrs); Deaths: 2,870 (+35 past 24 hr); Recovered: 42,109
SOUTH KOREA: Infected cases: 3,736 (+586); Deaths: 21 (+4)
ITALY: Infected cases: 1,694 (+566); Deaths: 34 (+5) Among the 1,577 active cases, 779 (49%) are hospitalized, 140 of which (representing 9% of active cases) are in intensive care. Among the 117 closed cases, 83 (71%) have recovered, 34 (29%) have died.
IRAN: Infected cases: 978 (+385); Deaths: 54 (+11). Numbers probably much higher.
JAPAN: Infected cases: 252 (+11); Deaths: 6 (+1)
GERMANY: Infected cases: 117 (+38); Deaths: 0
FRANCE: Infected cases: 104 (+4); Deaths: 2
SPAIN: Infected cases: 76 (+18); Deaths: 0
UK: Infected cases: 35 (+12); Deaths: 0 C****av***s outbreak could force UK to shut down entire cities, health secretary admits. He also said a research paper suggesting half a million people in the UK could die in the event of a flu p******c was a “reasonable worst-case scenario.”
IRAQ: Infected cases: 19 (+6); Deaths: 0
NORWAY: Infected cases: 17 (+2); Deaths: 0
NETHERLANDS: Infected cases: 10 (+3); Deaths: 0

USA: Infected cases: 71; Deaths: 1 (In State of Washington - a man in his 50s who had underlying health conditions). NOTE: The first American who died of C****-** was a 60-year-old woman who died in a hospital in W***n, China, sometime last month.

One new case in Rhode Island: https://turnto10.com/news/local/ridoh-confirms-first-presumptive-positive-case-of-c****av***s-in-rhode-island One new case in Illinois: http://www.dph.illinois.gov/news/state-illinois-public-health-officials-announce-new-presumptive-positive-c****-**-case-illinois

Sleepless in Seattle due to c****av***s:
• One person in King County has died due to a novel c****av***s infection, Public Health – Seattle & King County officials announced Saturday morning. It is the first death attributed to the v***s in the United States.
• Two people connected to a Kirkland long-term care facility have tested positive, officials said Saturday afternoon. A resident in her 70s is in serious condition, and a health employee in her 40s is stable. The long-term facility in Kirkland has 108 residents and 180 employees, according to the CDC.
• At the Kirkland facility, 27 residents and 25 employees have symptoms.
• 25 firefighters and 2 police officers quarantined - Kirkland has quarantined 25 firefighters and two police officers who responded to calls at the Life Care Center in the last week.
• An area U.S. Postal Service employee tested positive for the c****av***s.
A corporate communications spokesperson said that the employee who works at a Seattle network distribution center located in Federal Way, Washington.

In my opinion (my 2-cent not expert), based on the above reports, expect the number of infected cases to increase in Seattle area and the rest of the west coast. Let’s hope for no casualties from the v***s. But, considering these are residents of a nursing home and most likely with co-existing chronic medical conditions, they are the most vulnerable among the population. Let’s hope and pray they receive immediate medical attention and the best care available.

Stay Tuned.
Take care.

lesdmd Loc: Middleton Wi via N.Y.C. & Cleveland

My current pet peeve: all these basically valueless statistics being disseminated with little to no applicable knowledge being gained and no evidence that the p******c can be avoided or minimized.
C****a v***s is spreading exactly as should be expected. Statistically people are going to die. Everyone is hoping for a v*****e and for palliative medication.
I wish the media would cut down on reporting details that have no practical value or application. After all we can neither run nor hide. I refuse to panic; but it is human nature for some to do so. For those who have religious faith, use it; and everyone learn what you can do to maximize chances of staying healthy.

tom kf4wol

C****-**: Approximately 84,119 cases worldwide; 62 cases in the U.S. as of Feb. 28, 2020.

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths

C****-**: Approximately 2,871 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 28, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

dancers Loc: melbourne.victoria, australia

if we get it and die, that's it......we get it and die! Natures way of reducing the number of humans on earth.

Shellback Loc: North of Cheyenne Bottoms Wetlands - Kansas

Agree -
Relevant information not being discussed - fatality rates for Mers (30 per cent) and Sars (10 per cent) - this puts things in perspective since C****-** is running around 2 percent...
Enough of the sensationalism - all it does is fuel the scare tactics...

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

I agree, but you can’t equate the mortality rate of our recent yearly flu outbreaks to the new v***s (despite what the head of HHS said). The average death rate from flu is 0.14%. the death rate from the c****a v***s so far is approximately 3.4% based on the latest number of deaths and cases, so the c****a v***s is ~20x as deadly. I grant that is small compared to some other serious diseases such as Ebola, but still significantly worse than the flu. We can hope that there are many fewer cases of the c****a v***s.

SteveR Loc: Michigan

So far, the CDC estimates 18,000 deaths by the flu in the U.S. this flu season. This rivals the 20,000 from what was considered a great flu epidemic in the early 20th century. The differences in the two diseases, however, seems to be how easily c****a v***s is t***smitted through the air and the lack of knowledge about how long it will last.

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

The flu p******c of 1918 is estimated to have k**led 50-100 million people worldwide, out of an estimated 500 million infected, so much worse than our typical flu season, and medical treatment was much less advanced in 1918.

SteveR Loc: Michigan

I just googled that p******c. It k**led 675,000 Americans, not 20,000. Either way you look at it, flu is a b. I had the Asian flu as a young kid and thought I was going to die. I wasn't. I was just really sick.

Sunnely Loc: Wisconsin

I agree with the figures you cited above. But comparing one mere aspect of diseases is too simplistic. Also, the case fatality rate you mentioned for C****-** is based on the ongoing data. Remember, the disease is still ongoing and evolving and CFR (case fatality rate) you mentioned may change.

Not trying to stir up fear or panic when I posted the above subject. My main goal is to inform. I believe one of the reasons why c****av***s is getting all the attention and not the flu (not implying the flu is not important) is because we still don't know a lot about this C****-**. It is nothing to sneeze at.

One big difference between the flu and the C****-** is the rate of t***smission or Ro (R-nought or R- zero). The flu has an Ro of 1.3 whereas C****-** is between 1.5-3.5 (in preliminary studies; WHO suggests 1.4 to 2.5). One person infected with the flu will t***smit it to 1.3 people while C****-** 1 infected person will t***smit it to 1.5 to 3.5 people. If you do the math, you'll see the big difference.

Another difference is the incubation period: Flu incubation period is between 1 to 4 days whereas C****-** can be as long as 14 days (WHO and CDC) or as long as 19 days (JAMA), or as long as 24 days (one Chinese study) or as long as 27 days (another study), depending on who you believe. Both flu and C****-** can t***smit the disease before symptoms happen (asymptomatic), with much longer incubation period an infected but asymptomatic person can spread C****-** much longer than the flu without even knowing it.

Another difference, based on available data and cases, it appears the severity of the following v***ses from the least severe to the most is as follows:

Flu < C****-** < SARS < MERS (C****-** is more severe than flu but less severe than SARS and MERS).

Another difference between flu and C****-** is, there is available v*****e for the flu (although based on what strain most likely for the season) and anti-v***l medications while nothing for C****-** at the present.

In sum,

1) We know more about the flu than the C****-** at the present time. Wouldn't you rather face an enemy you know a lot than one you know very little?

2) Based on available data, C****-** symptoms are more severe than flu.

3) There are available v*****es and anti-v***ls against the flu but none for C****-** at present. Wouldn't you rather go to war against an enemy with guns and bullets rather than just with your bare hands?

Here's a couple of recent articles explaining why C****-** is not just your common, ordinary flu.

1) (New York Times - set aside a couple of politics jab, it is an excellent article)
2) The Guardian

NEW YORK TIMES - Feb. 29, 2020 (also addresses the CFR you cited):

How Does the C****av***s Compare With the Flu? Feb. 29, 2020 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/c****av***s-flu.html

As new cases appear on the West Coast, some — including the president — are comparing it to the seasonal flu. Here’s a close look at the differences.

Is this new c****av***s really a serious danger? Doesn’t the flu k**l more people?
As the United States recorded its first c****av***s death on Saturday — and as other cases popped up in people without known risks on the West Coast — Americans wondered how to measure this new threat against a more familiar foe: influenza.

President Trump, a self-described germophobe, said on Wednesday he was amazed to learn that tens of thousands of Americans died from the flu each year, contrasting that number with the 60 or so known to be infected with the c****av***s. On Friday, Mr. Trump accused the news media and Democrats of exaggerating the dangers of the v***s.

“The flu k**ls people,” Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, said on Wednesday. “This is not Ebola. It’s not SARS, it’s not MERS. It’s not a death sentence.”

To many public health officials, that argument misses the point.
Yes, the flu is terrible — that’s exactly why scientists don’t want another contagious respiratory disease to take root. If they could stop the seasonal flu, they would. But there may yet be a chance to stop the c****av***s.
In many ways, the flu is the best argument for throwing everything at the c****av***s. Here’s a closer look at the similarities and differences.

Which v***s is deadlier?
The c****av***s seems to be more deadly than the flu — so far.
On average, seasonal flu strains k**l about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. The 1918 flu had an unusually high fatality rate, around 2 percent. Because it was so contagious, that flu k**led tens of millions of people.

Early estimates of the c****av***s death rate from W***n, China, the epicenter of the outbreak, have been around 2 percent. But a new report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published on Friday in The New England Journal of Medicine, finds a lower rate: 1.4 percent.
The c****av***s death rate may be even lower, if — as most experts suspect — there are many mild or symptom-free cases that have not been detected.

The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. F***i and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But even a disease with a relatively low death rate can take a huge toll if enormous numbers of people catch it. As of Sunday, there were about 87,000 c****av***s cases and 3,000 deaths. This week, for the first time, the number of new cases outside China exceeded the number within the country.

Which v***s is more contagious?
So far, the new c****av***s seems to be more contagious than most strains of the flu, and roughly as contagious as strains that appear in p******c flu seasons.

Each person with the c****av***s appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average. But the figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in the beginning, and infections soared in W***n and the surrounding province. As an epidemic comes under control, the reproduction number, as it’s called, will fall.
By comparison, the figure for the seasonal flu is roughly 1.3. The reproduction number for the flu of 1918 was about the same as that of the new c****av***s, perhaps higher, but that was before modern treatments and v*****es were available.

In both flu and the illness caused by the c****av***s, people may be contagious before symptoms develop, making it difficult or even impossible to control the spread of the v***s. Nobody knows how many people infected with the c****av***s have only very mild symptoms or none at all.

Who is most at risk from infection?
Both the c****av***s and influenza are most dangerous to people who are older than 65, or have chronic illnesses or a weak i****e s****m.

Death rates among men infected with the c****av***s in China, particularly those in their late 40s and older, have exceeded those among women, a pattern not seen in the seasonal flu. The reason for the discrepancy is not known, although Chinese men do smoke more, often resulting in c*********d lung function.

There seems to be another important difference: The flu appears far more dangerous to children, particularly very young ones, who can become severely ill. Children infected with the new c****av***s tend to have mild or no symptoms.

The flu is also especially dangerous for pregnant women, who can become severely ill from it. Whether the new c****av***s poses as serious a threat to pregnant women is not known.

Which v***s makes you sicker?
As of Feb. 22, in the current season there were at least 32 million cases of flu in the United States, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 flu deaths, according to the C.D.C. Hospitalization rates among children and young adults this year have been unusually high.

There would be even more illnesses and deaths if there were no flu v*****e. Most people recover in less than two weeks, and sometimes in just days.

By contrast, about 70 people in the United States have been infected with the new c****av***s, and there has been one death. There are no treatments or v*****es for the c****av***s, only supportive care for infected people.

Most cases of c****av***s infection are not severe, but some people do become quite sick. Data from the largest study of patients to date, conducted in China, suggests that of c****av***s patients receiving medical attention, 80 percent had mild infections, about 15 percent had severe illnesses, and 5 percent were critical.

The first symptoms, fever and cough, are similar to that of the flu, so the diseases can be hard to tell apart without a test to identify the v***s. Pneumonia is common among c****av***s patients, even among those whose cases are not severe.

Experts think there may also be many people with no symptoms at all, or such mild ones that they never bother to seek medical attention. Because those cases have not been counted, it’s not possible now to know the real proportion of mild versus severe cases.

Antibody tests, which can determine whether someone has ever been infected, may eventually help to establish how many people had mild or asymptomatic c****av***s infections.

Can people become immune to the c****av***s?
After v***l infections, people generally develop antibodies in their blood that will fight off the v***s and protect them from contracting it again. It’s reasonable to assume that people who have had the new c****av***s will become immune to it.

But it is not known how long that immunity will last. With other c****av***ses, which cause the common cold, immunity can wane.

There are v*****es for the seasonal flu, of course, and these induce at least partial immunity to influenza.

What treatments are available?
There is no approved antiv***l drug for the c****av***s, though several are being tested. Doctors can recommend only the usual remedies for any v***l illness: rest, medicine to reduce pain and fever, and fluids to avoid dehydration.
C****av***s patients with pneumonia may also need oxygen, and a ventilator if breathing trouble worsens.

For the flu, however, there are four prescription medicines. All work best if they are taken within a day or two of when symptoms start.

They’re not miracle cures: They can lessen the severity of the illness and shorten its course by a day or so, and they may lower the risk of serious complications.

The drugs are also recommended for people who have been exposed to a flu patient, to try to prevent the illness.

The flu, like the c****av***s illness, can also cause pneumonia and breathing trouble. Anyone who becomes short of breath needs medical attention quickly.

Can I get v******ted?
An experimental v*****e for the c****av***s may be ready for testing in humans within a few months, but will take much longer, at least a year or two, to become available for widespread use.

Flu v*****es, on the other hand, are widely available and generally 40 percent to 60 percent effective, which means they will reduce cases by that amount in a population that has been v******ted, compared with one that has not.

The v*****e for the current season falls into that range, according to the C.D.C., which said on Feb. 21 that people who have not been v******ted should still get the shot, because the flu season is ongoing.

Experts have been urging people to get the flu shot for all the usual reasons. But now there’s another: If there is a c****av***s outbreak in the United States, hospitals will need all the beds, equipment and staff they can muster.

It will be important not to have those resources taken up by patients with flu that could have been prevented.

Will the c****av***s go away when the weather warms?
Mr. Trump has said repeatedly that the c****av***s will retreat as weather warms, just as influenza does. In fact, because this is a new v***s, there is no information about how the weather might affect it.

Even if the v***s were to diminish in the spring, it might rebound later in the fall, as the weather cools. This is a pattern often seen in severe flu seasons.

Containment is becoming less likely, because of the contagiousness of the v***s, the possibility that people can spread it before they have symptoms and the increasing number of outbreaks around the world.
The cases in California, Oregon and Washington State without known links to overseas travel, reported on Friday, may be a warning sign that the new c****av***s has already begun to circulate.

Yes, it is worse than the flu: busting the c****av***s myths https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-c****av***s-myths

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’
Many individuals who get c****av***s will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with C****-**. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the v***s and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make C****-** about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to k**l between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Finally, it is not sensationalism as you claimed. Just the facts, m'am. Just the facts.

lesdmd Loc: Middleton Wi via N.Y.C. & Cleveland

Sunnily - Terrific compilation of the available facts about C****-**. You summarize everything the media SHOULD be reporting to the American public. Just add basic hygiene practices.
My concern is that the news has dumbed down reportage to facts so basic and meaningless as to be irrelevant. Do we really need to know every time a new confirmed case appears somewhere in the world? This is when the facts veer into sensationalism and fear mongering.

Sunnely Loc: Wisconsin

Can't argue with you on basic hygiene practices. In fact, that is the #1 on the list on ways to prevent catching the bug, not only the flu but C****-**, as well.

As for media reporting, I have no facts to support my view, sadly, I believe the media will word on their headers numbers/data on c****av***s favorable to their "political" base or unfavorable to their "political" opponents. Not saying they're fudging the numbers or reporting inaccurate numbers, but they'll say it in a way it would look "good" or "bad," depending on their political alignment. I won't name names but I know which media outlets lean to one side over the other. The numbers are what they are. But they can be presented in a way which creates a lie. If I may add, sensationalism or fear/panic.

I am an apolitical person when it comes to figures, numbers, data. I also make sure that numbers reported are supported by facts/legit references and timely (unless referring to an old event) before accepting it. In the case of the c****av***s outbreak, I like to tease out or analyze numbers that the media report (regardless of its political view as long as it's accurate) and try to spot a possible trend or something that deserves closer look or monitoring. (I would have given that article from the New York Times 5 stars had the writers not spiced it with politics.) Like I said, no sensationalism, no fear-mongering, no stirring up panic. Just the facts, m'am. Just the facts.

Thanks.

lesdmd Loc: Middleton Wi via N.Y.C. & Cleveland

"I believe the media will word on their headers numbers/data on c****av***s favorable to their "political" base or unfavorable to their "political" opponents. "

I do not believe that the media is politicizing the potential P******c. The Politicians are taking care of that. Unfortunately, with the possibility of a crisis that will cross State lines, a nationally coordinated effort must be mounted to manage it. Our "leaders" have not been doing very well lately with finding common ground on which to agree, and the news media reports those disagreements as part of their coverage.

I hope that this discussion, and National action stays free of d******eness. If the facts support a conclusion, report them. If they are unable to do so, report that. Science has little room for "spinning the facts", contrary to the way politicians operate.

There are several OP-ED pieces in the Sunday N.Y. Times that offer a wide range of options in how the effects of a P******c might be minimized. They arrange from an optimistic suggestion of world cooperation to autocratic suppression of civil liberties. This is where our National debate should center, and let's quickly hope for consensus. When this is over, and it will end at some point, I hope to avoid hearing recriminations.

Sunnely Loc: Wisconsin

lesdmd, my sentiments, exactly. Well said.

Our leaders should get their act together, AS ONE, FAST! C****-** knows no boundaries, race, g****r, religion, rich/poor, or political affiliations.

We're nearing the event horizon.

Hope and praying for the best for the whole nation.

Take care yourself.

SteveR Loc: Michigan

Don't die of anxiety in the meantime!!