srt101fan wrote:
I am very interested in opinions that challenge my viewpoint.
How you judge the severity of the threat is a critical starting point for any discussion of the need for and value of countermeasures. I personally believe that the covid-19 threat is to be taken very seriously, especially by old folks like me, and that it is a much greater concern than the flu. I base this on my understanding of the following differences between covid-19 and the flu:
(a) Covid-19 is much more contagious than the flu
(b) Covid-19 is much deadlier than the flu
(c) Covid-19 survivors may have serious long-term health complications whereas flu patients generally don't
(d) We have vaccines for the flu but, at this time, none for covid-19
So, if you don't agree with my position and underlying rationale regarding the severity of the covid-19 pandemic, would you please tell me why you disagree?
I am very interested in opinions that challenge my... (
show quote)
Appreciate good discourse in this (or almost any) topic these days...often hard to come by for some reason.
In response, I'd say I mostly agree with your overall position regarding people in your age range.
However, I think this IS a huge issue. Age matters and there isn't a 'one size fits all' answer. So to address your bullet points:
a - I don't know how we could know which is more contagious at this point. I suspect that Covid-19 is more contagious, but I also don't have a reason to think the stats are comparable. We've never done testing like this. Are there tons of people who would test positive if we did the same for the Flu? If companies made testing for the flu a prerequisite for entry to the office, would we find far more 'cases' that would otherwise go unnoticed. I suspect so.
b - Covid-19 is clearly more deadly than the Flu...for the elderly. Every reliable statistic I've seen that stratifies by age shows the opposite is true for the young. So I don't agree with your statement in general, only as it relates to older individuals (and possibly those with comorbidities).
c - I don't disagree with your comment on long-term effects. I've seen instances of 'long haulers' related to Covid that I have never heard of concerning flu. Whether long-term means a few weeks, month or years...I've never heard it used for the flu, so I imagine this is a phenomenon only related to Covid-19.
d - I'm not sure how to address the vaccine piece of this topic as it relates to the overall threat. First, they are very different viruses regarding how they mutate and how we are developing the respective vaccines. The mutations (and possible combinations of mutations) in the Flu are far greater than in Covid. I'm under the impression that the immunity for Sars-CoV2 will be similar to Sars-CoV1. Which appears to last quite a long time - 23 years so far. I wouldn't even really use the word immunity as it relates to the Flu vaccine (at least not in the same way). It may give protection, but they appear to be radically different.
So my conclusion is this, people should weigh the risks and determine what's right for them. If everyone is simply given the facts, I believe more people will be appropriately concerned - without mandates (like Sweden has shown).
As far as why this has been so hard to work through and so political, I suggest you watch this video (it's very long though):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P3SkTBfGzU&feature=emb_logoThere's also a transcript of it here:
https://rationalground.com/governor-desantis-roundtable-experts-advocate-for-normal-life-for-young-people/I recognize it's being done by a governor (so there's clearly a political party involved). But research the panel of scientists (from Stanford, Oxford, Harvard) who also mention other leading epidemiologists who have been more or less silenced for dissenting views. That's not how science works and is certainly why there is distrust in the public.