burkphoto wrote:
Lithium will probably be replaced by several other substances by the time my great great grandkids are born. There is so much energy research being done now, we are going to go through a period of intense competition for market share, as oil, coal, and gas are gradually replaced. 100 years from now, if we are still alive as a species, we may well have fusion power or some other super-efficient technology. We just don't know what we don't know.
Think back to the mid-1980s when early research into digital imaging showed promise. It took roughly ten years to get out of the lab and into "sandbox" mode: $30,000 Kodak dSLRs kludged together out of old Nikon and Canon film cameras. By the mid-2000s, Kodak was trying to control the bleeding of its film and paper businesses, as dSLRs were killing the film business. My former employer spent a couple million bucks on film scanners that we got about ten years' use from (1997 to 2007). Then we ripped out all our film processors and quit using film. I had run the film scanning operation. The scanners were great while we needed them for the film-to-digital transition. But I was very happy to see them go. There are just too many advantages to digital capture.
In 1996, as digital technology was in its infancy, the photo industry largely ignored it. That year, at PMAI, a consortium of companies introduced the APS film system. It was clever, but 30 years too late. In 2011, just 15 years later, APS was dead, and for all popular purposes, film had been replaced by digital cameras and smartphones. The masses never think things like that will happen, until they do. The "techies and scientists in the back room" have been at it for 10, 20, or 30 years before new products burst onto the scene and kick old ones to the curb in a shocking paradigm shift.
Development is a slow and mostly private process. Steve Jobs and his associates were dreaming about products like the iPad and iPhone as far back as 1982. There are videos of him talking cryptically about them then. It took a few decades "for all the stars to align properly..."
The Internet dates back to the mid-late 1960s and research at DARPA. But it was kept mostly in a university and government sandbox until the early-mid 1990s when Tim Berners-Lee gave us the first world-wide web technologies. 30 years later, what have we done?
Lithium will probably be replaced by several other... (
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I always enjoy your perspective on things. More good comments.