dpullum wrote:
Frank, how unkind of you, poking holes in the premise comparison, you will be accused of examines things rationally!! Manipulating the raw numbers out from 6 weeks to 52 weeks is a factor of 8.67, so at 31,000 in 6weeks that amounts to 268,666 lives for a year. If we stop stay in place and social distancing Two hundred and Seventy Thousand could be a real one year number in 2020.
Having had the Hong Kong flu in 1957, I will say no thank you to taking a chance with this one. I was 21 years old then and survived .. it was really bad. Now I am 84 and in the 20% fatality group... YIKES.
As is said at the daily briefings, "how could we imagine such a pandemic could happen." Yes, we could learn from history: "1957 flu pandemic, also called Asian flu pandemic of 1957 or Asian flu of 1957, outbreak of influenza that was first identified in February 1957 in East Asia and that subsequently spread to countries worldwide. The 1957 flu pandemic was the second major influenza pandemic to occur in the 20th century; it followed the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 and preceded the 1968 flu pandemic. The 1957 flu outbreak caused an estimated one million to two million deaths worldwide and is generally considered to have been the least severe of the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century."
https://www.britannica.com/event/Asian-flu-of-1957
1917-18 flu took 50million. The bad in 1917, but worse was when it reemerged in 1918. It was in reality not the Spanish flu, it started in Kansas... mid USA.
https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/influenza-epidemic/
Frank, how unkind of you, poking holes in the prem... (
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That's what I'm believing on the first go around is 250 to 300 thousand dead in the US alone.