Shutterbug57 wrote:
It all depends on what you mean by "replacing". In new camera sales, MILCs are doing pretty well. In the installed MILC/SLR/DSLR base, they are a much smaller part. Obsolescence, either technical or physical, will be the major determining factor in when SLRs & DSLRs are removed from the population of cameras at work (pro or otherwise). Think of how long it took to get the cars from the 1960s & 1970s off the road. Newer cars did not replace them as they just went used market, but sooner or later, they just quit working.
Now, with DSLRs, let's look at my installed base. I have a D70s, D200 & D500. I also have a X-T2 MILC. The D70s is pretty much obsolete, technically, and is reserved for training grandkids - it still works, just at 6MP with the noise profile of a ~20 year old camera. The D200 I still use, mostly as a backup or second lens camera to support the D500. I look at DSLRs like computers. In the 1980s, you had to buy a new computer every couple of years as the technology advanced, by 2000, the Pentium had come in and computers lasted much longer. Today's computers will last a good long time before they require replacement. The D50/D70 era was the early age of DSLRs, they were underpowered and needed replacement fairly quickly. The D200 still works fine, if there is enough light - same as always. Over 800 ISO, it is a noise master. In the lower ISP range, it puts out fine images. The D500 works well even in low light. For what I shoot, it should last many, many years. Yes, new tech will come out, but the D500 with my pro-level glass will continue to put out fine images.
I bought the X-T2 as a briefcase camera as it is small and light and can cover 18-200 with 2 small and good quality lenses. If forced to pick between the D500 & X-T2, I would go with the D500, but I am enjoying the X-T2 quite a lot. BUT, the X-T2 has not taken the D200 or D500 "off the road".
It all depends on what you mean by "replacing... (
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Of course, what you're saying makes practical sense. Mirrorless is a newer and more advanced technology, but to think that mirrorless is going to replace dslr is simply wishful thinking. There is far too much investment into dslr for that to happen any time soon! The current glut of dslr cameras, lenses, and accessories in the camera market place will in itself keep dslr quite viable for quite awhile.