I thought I already had. Do I need to repeat it?
Apparently it was in other threads, here are two recent posts:...
"I do expect mirrorless technology to replace DSLR technology, I just don't think that it is there yet for my personal needs."
"....I think it is going to be a long transition, which Canon, Nikon, others have to navigate successfully if they are going to prosper. One might consider it 'Crossing the Chasm' (Geoffrey Moore) as startup companies have to manage, or 'Who Says Elephants Can't Dance?' (Lou Gerstner) about transforming a behemoth. Lessons to be learned, and fortunes to be lost. I have seen (and been part of) many startups falling into the chasm, and many behemoths fall by the wayside, and be absorbed into other enterprises, sometimes to continue their slide into the abyss.
Interestingly enough most of the companies we are discussing here are in the behemoth category - Canon, Nikon, Sony, Panasonic, Olympus, Fuji, Pentax, and so on. I do believe that mirrorless, EVFs, electronic shutters et al will be the next end game, but to be successful at a system level takes decades, and it also typically takes a decade or more for big companies to die, just like the UHH community. The truth is that very few startups or behemoths actually survive the transition.
So far Canon is doing extremely well, both in corporate success and in the camera markets, both new and old. Sony hasn't been without its problems, but is now widely acknowledged as the leader in sensors for both smartphones and ILC cameras, however as a company it is still in turnaround mode. I won't comment on the others since I don't have time to do a robust analysis, although it would be an interesting project if someone would pay me enough to do it, but nobody on UHH could or would be able / willing to afford that.
Bottom line, I think we mostly agree where the market is going, but it is going to be slow journey at a system and company level. Especially as we old farts die off, and the new generation of talented smart phone users look beyond the photographic capabilities of a basic $1,000 smartphone."
So, by all means keep debating. I certainly believe that mirrorless cameras will be the next step in the product evolution. I'm not personally ready to go there yet, but that doesn't mean that they are not the best option for other people, it is simply a matter of personal choice. I certainly do not believe that mirrorless cameras are technically inferior to DSLRs, I think they have some advantages and some disadvantages currently. The vendor prediction is much harder to call, and I have lived that for decades and been quite well paid for my analysis. Much of which has proved quite accurate, and some have definitely missed the mark. I'm still involved in analyzing and predicting technology markets, at the moment mostly crypto-currencies and quantum computing, and of course I have my opinions about individual vendors, but I would not publish my opinions on their future status. I might express opinions on what I consider the criteria for success to be.
For the record, I consider Olympus, Panasonic, Fujifilm, Ricoh-imaging (Pentax), Sony, and others to be delivering excellent product, and each is pushing the market along, I accept that Canon and Nikon are currently lagards in that regard, but I have also seen lagards let the upstarts fight the first skirmishes and then sweep in to win the day on more than one occasion.
My personal perspective, since you asked, is that the field is open, the day is far from won, and it may be today's smartphone users that wish to grow beyond the capabilities of their multi-function devices that will set the rules for the next generation of users and vendor / technology success.
Does that address your request for what I have to say sufficiently? Mirrorless will dominate and replace DSLR technology. In what form I an uncertain. Who supplies them and leads the market I am not at all certain, and am unwilling to speculate. I am convinced that it will take a lot longer than many people think it will. Some on UHH will not be around to see the end game play out.
Market transitions are complicated and many factors come into play. All I know is that the future will happen, and despite the fact that I work there, I may not be part of it.
I thought I already had. Do I need to repeat it? ... (
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