Flyerace wrote:
On March 21, 2020, the "experts" predicted 2.2 million Americans dead from Covid-19. Sadly, we just went over 100,000. I will attribute some of the success of less than projected deaths from social distancing and staying locked down. I will also agree that we will see some more people test positive and potentially die from these large gatherings.
What I won't agree on, as the experts have projected are any senarios projected because this hasn't happened before. The best thing they can do is make an informed guess. Guess what? They aren't informed because they haven't seen this before either. The best thing we can do is wear a mask when out in public. Stay away from large gatherings where others are not wearing masks.
Masks do help. Let me explain. If you are infected, and you wear a mask, any "spittle" that you may have coming from your mouth will land inside the mask. The virus needs to have that spittle to get to the next victim. If you contain it in your mask, it can't get to the next person. If that next person has on a mask, the little bit of anything you might be trying to transport, can't get in to the person's mouth because the exterior of the mask will stop it. So wearing masks DOES help prevent the continuing exposure to this disease.
I had this bugger and it wasn't fun. Fortunately, I lived. I'm lucky because I already had inhalers (asthma), nebulizer (asthma). I also don't sleep on my back, I sleep on my side. It was later determined that Covid patients should be on their stomachs, moving their organs away from the lungs and allowing the lungs to work better. I think being on my side helped move those organs away from my lungs. I was hot and cold at the same time, 103F temp. I turned up my heated mattress pad to high and pulled up 3 down blankets. Thus increasing my body temp. Supposedly, high temps kill this little monster.
I believe you can go out, meet friends out, and socialize, all while wearing a mask. Still order food to-go thus supporting local restaurants. Many businesses have become proficient in taking orders for all kinds of things and will deliver to your house or curbside. Take advantage of this. Still wear your mask.
Remember to wash your hands and wear a mask. You might live long enough to get through this. God bless.
On March 21, 2020, the "experts" predict... (
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Sorry but you do not understand the purpose of models. They are to experiment with strategies to guide decisions.
They do not predict a certain number. They calculate a range of possibilities depending on inputs. The two million was the upper range of one model with no actions.
Models are effective guides for decisions because they force you to write down your assumptions and think through how the system works. Human brains are awful at that.
I have tracked the Washington model outputs from the beginning. The ranges have narrowed as options have been exercised and input data has improved.
Your point on masks is right though. WHO and CDC were flat wrong on their effectiveness.
There is growing evidence that lockdown does not work, though. Learning social distancing and masks are far more effective.