Three Covid-19 possible scenarios.
May 30, 2020 12:56:22 #
I received an email letter from my doctor's office about Covid-19 which I am attaching here. It contains three possible scenarios for the virus put forth by the Center for Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP).
"Have you heard people talking like COVID-19 is over? We are so eager to get back to normal. It's understandable. As a medical doctor, I'm afraid we're letting our guard down too soon. The truth is COVID-19 is not over. This may be just the first of several waves of infection.
Medical experts from around the world agree. The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) recently published a report on the future of this pandemic. It calls COVID-19 the worst global health crisis in more than 100 years. It also states there is "no crystal ball to tell us what the future holds." The report says we should be looking to other recent flu outbreaks for answers to our current situation. And CIDRAP says we should be paying special attention to what sets COVID-19 apart.
The first difference is the incubation period. For influenza it's two days. For COVID-19 it's five days. The longer a disease can go undetected the more likely it is to spread. The second difference is the number of people who show no sign of infection. Public health officials estimate that 25 percent of those infected will not have symptoms. That means they could be infecting others and don't know it.
The final difference is when someone is most contagious. Typically, people are more likely to catch the flu when someone who is infected looks their sickest. But with COVID-19, people are most contagious before they show any symptoms – again, if they have symptoms.
So what does the future look like for COVID-19? CIDRAP says there are three possible scenarios. Please know that I share these with you out of sincere concern for your health – not to cause you stress or create fear.
• Scenario One — Begins with an initial wave in Spring 2020 followed by a series of smaller waves of infection that last up to two years.
• Scenario Two — Begins in spring 2020 and is followed by a second, larger wave this fall or winter and a smaller one in 2021. If this happens, communities will likely return to quarantines.
• Scenario Three — Begins in spring 2020 and is followed by what CIDRAP describes as a “slow burn.” That means there's no clear pattern. This scenario would likely not cause communities to return to quarantines, but infections and deaths would continue.
No matter the scenario, CIDRAP says we should prepare for another 18 to 24 months with COVID-19. I urge those of you who the CDC identifies as being at greatest risk — people age 65 or older, with lung disease or moderate to severe asthma, people with diabetes, liver or heart disease — to continue with preventive actions. Continue to self-quarantine. Practice social distancing if you must go in public. Wash your hands often. Your actions are your greatest protection against this deadly disease.
Take care – not just of yourself but your loved ones. We are all in this together.
Remember, stay safe, stay home!"
"Have you heard people talking like COVID-19 is over? We are so eager to get back to normal. It's understandable. As a medical doctor, I'm afraid we're letting our guard down too soon. The truth is COVID-19 is not over. This may be just the first of several waves of infection.
Medical experts from around the world agree. The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) recently published a report on the future of this pandemic. It calls COVID-19 the worst global health crisis in more than 100 years. It also states there is "no crystal ball to tell us what the future holds." The report says we should be looking to other recent flu outbreaks for answers to our current situation. And CIDRAP says we should be paying special attention to what sets COVID-19 apart.
The first difference is the incubation period. For influenza it's two days. For COVID-19 it's five days. The longer a disease can go undetected the more likely it is to spread. The second difference is the number of people who show no sign of infection. Public health officials estimate that 25 percent of those infected will not have symptoms. That means they could be infecting others and don't know it.
The final difference is when someone is most contagious. Typically, people are more likely to catch the flu when someone who is infected looks their sickest. But with COVID-19, people are most contagious before they show any symptoms – again, if they have symptoms.
So what does the future look like for COVID-19? CIDRAP says there are three possible scenarios. Please know that I share these with you out of sincere concern for your health – not to cause you stress or create fear.
• Scenario One — Begins with an initial wave in Spring 2020 followed by a series of smaller waves of infection that last up to two years.
• Scenario Two — Begins in spring 2020 and is followed by a second, larger wave this fall or winter and a smaller one in 2021. If this happens, communities will likely return to quarantines.
• Scenario Three — Begins in spring 2020 and is followed by what CIDRAP describes as a “slow burn.” That means there's no clear pattern. This scenario would likely not cause communities to return to quarantines, but infections and deaths would continue.
No matter the scenario, CIDRAP says we should prepare for another 18 to 24 months with COVID-19. I urge those of you who the CDC identifies as being at greatest risk — people age 65 or older, with lung disease or moderate to severe asthma, people with diabetes, liver or heart disease — to continue with preventive actions. Continue to self-quarantine. Practice social distancing if you must go in public. Wash your hands often. Your actions are your greatest protection against this deadly disease.
Take care – not just of yourself but your loved ones. We are all in this together.
Remember, stay safe, stay home!"
May 30, 2020 12:57:42 #
May 30, 2020 12:59:37 #
Fotoartist wrote:
The herd will be thinned, no doubt.
It will be interesting to see what comes out of the large gatherings at major cities these past few days.
May 30, 2020 13:02:27 #
Two friends of mine, dead from COVID! One the day before yesterday, and his mother died the week before from it.
May 30, 2020 13:05:55 #
....Continue to self quarantine?
For how long?
And when the next one gets out?
And if it never goes away?
If I'm 70, with any medical problems, I will NOT spend the rest of my life, however long that may be, quarantined in my house waiting to die of old age.....
For how long?
And when the next one gets out?
And if it never goes away?
If I'm 70, with any medical problems, I will NOT spend the rest of my life, however long that may be, quarantined in my house waiting to die of old age.....
May 30, 2020 13:06:25 #
jeep_daddy wrote:
Two friends of mine, dead from COVID! One the day before yesterday, and his mother died the week before from it.
May 30, 2020 13:06:46 #
SteveR wrote:
It will be interesting to see what comes out of the large gatherings at major cities these past few days.
Definitely!
May 30, 2020 13:20:03 #
On March 21, 2020, the "experts" predicted 2.2 million Americans dead from Covid-19. Sadly, we just went over 100,000. I will attribute some of the success of less than projected deaths from social distancing and staying locked down. I will also agree that we will see some more people test positive and potentially die from these large gatherings.
What I won't agree on, as the experts have projected are any senarios projected because this hasn't happened before. The best thing they can do is make an informed guess. Guess what? They aren't informed because they haven't seen this before either. The best thing we can do is wear a mask when out in public. Stay away from large gatherings where others are not wearing masks.
Masks do help. Let me explain. If you are infected, and you wear a mask, any "spittle" that you may have coming from your mouth will land inside the mask. The virus needs to have that spittle to get to the next victim. If you contain it in your mask, it can't get to the next person. If that next person has on a mask, the little bit of anything you might be trying to transport, can't get in to the person's mouth because the exterior of the mask will stop it. So wearing masks DOES help prevent the continuing exposure to this disease.
I had this bugger and it wasn't fun. Fortunately, I lived. I'm lucky because I already had inhalers (asthma), nebulizer (asthma). I also don't sleep on my back, I sleep on my side. It was later determined that Covid patients should be on their stomachs, moving their organs away from the lungs and allowing the lungs to work better. I think being on my side helped move those organs away from my lungs. I was hot and cold at the same time, 103F temp. I turned up my heated mattress pad to high and pulled up 3 down blankets. Thus increasing my body temp. Supposedly, high temps kill this little monster.
I believe you can go out, meet friends out, and socialize, all while wearing a mask. Still order food to-go thus supporting local restaurants. Many businesses have become proficient in taking orders for all kinds of things and will deliver to your house or curbside. Take advantage of this. Still wear your mask.
Remember to wash your hands and wear a mask. You might live long enough to get through this. God bless.
What I won't agree on, as the experts have projected are any senarios projected because this hasn't happened before. The best thing they can do is make an informed guess. Guess what? They aren't informed because they haven't seen this before either. The best thing we can do is wear a mask when out in public. Stay away from large gatherings where others are not wearing masks.
Masks do help. Let me explain. If you are infected, and you wear a mask, any "spittle" that you may have coming from your mouth will land inside the mask. The virus needs to have that spittle to get to the next victim. If you contain it in your mask, it can't get to the next person. If that next person has on a mask, the little bit of anything you might be trying to transport, can't get in to the person's mouth because the exterior of the mask will stop it. So wearing masks DOES help prevent the continuing exposure to this disease.
I had this bugger and it wasn't fun. Fortunately, I lived. I'm lucky because I already had inhalers (asthma), nebulizer (asthma). I also don't sleep on my back, I sleep on my side. It was later determined that Covid patients should be on their stomachs, moving their organs away from the lungs and allowing the lungs to work better. I think being on my side helped move those organs away from my lungs. I was hot and cold at the same time, 103F temp. I turned up my heated mattress pad to high and pulled up 3 down blankets. Thus increasing my body temp. Supposedly, high temps kill this little monster.
I believe you can go out, meet friends out, and socialize, all while wearing a mask. Still order food to-go thus supporting local restaurants. Many businesses have become proficient in taking orders for all kinds of things and will deliver to your house or curbside. Take advantage of this. Still wear your mask.
Remember to wash your hands and wear a mask. You might live long enough to get through this. God bless.
May 30, 2020 13:29:06 #
Longshadow wrote:
....Continue to self quarantine?
For how long?
And when the next one gets out?
And if it never goes away?
If I'm 70, with any medical problems, I will NOT spend the rest of my life, however long that may be, quarantined in my house waiting to die of old age.....
For how long?
And when the next one gets out?
And if it never goes away?
If I'm 70, with any medical problems, I will NOT spend the rest of my life, however long that may be, quarantined in my house waiting to die of old age.....
I don't think that the suggestion is to self quarantine, which is for those individuals who may have come into contact with others who were positive for the virus.
There are many ways to go about a healthy lifestyle while observing precautions. I see many people out walking their dogs, bicycling or running, for instance, all the while maintaining social distancing. When necessary to go into obviously public places like the grocery store, it is prudent for all to wear masks. Two weeks ago I went to the barber. It was appointment only. I waited in my car until I was waved in. Both I and my barber wore masks the entire time. When it was time to trim around my ears, I would undo the loop and hold the mask in place myself. There's no reason not to go to parks and still not retain social distancing. Family gatherings must be played by ear. Our daughter and her family have been over recently on two occasions to celebrate birthdays. However, they are all pretty much sheltering in place. My daughter is teaching online and teaching the kids at home. Her husband has a job were he does not have to interact with others. However, my wife has a friend who in immuno compromised and whose daughters are out in the workforce. She feels that if she were to catch Covid-19 she would surely die, so she'd unable, at this time, to have family gatherings. I do believe that we'll be able to go to places like restaurants as long as social distancing is observed and there is some way to place orders and make payment with compromising that distancing.
We should not relegate ourselves to the status of prisoners in our own homes, but at the same time, we should be intelligent in how we go about living our lives during a time of contagious disease.
May 30, 2020 14:25:32 #
Flyerace wrote:
... br ... br Masks do help. Let me explain. If yo... (show quote)
It keeps that "exhale cloud" close to you, not blowing it out all over the place.
May 30, 2020 14:26:25 #
May 30, 2020 21:25:48 #
Larelain
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
In all of this the experts are all over the place. Below is from the New England Journal of Medicine on May 21:
"We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic."
So where are we? I am 73 years old and have lived a very full life. This is my third pandemic that I have lived through. I am not hiding but will continue to live and enjoy my life
"We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic."
So where are we? I am 73 years old and have lived a very full life. This is my third pandemic that I have lived through. I am not hiding but will continue to live and enjoy my life
May 30, 2020 21:48:57 #
Larelain wrote:
In all of this the experts are all over the place.... (show quote)
Who authored the paper?
Experts already know that a patient begins "shedding" viruses several days before he becomes symptomatic, so we already know the part that talks about contact with a "symptomatic patient" is at best old news.
May 30, 2020 21:54:24 #
Riggson
Loc: Tucson, Az
SteveR wrote:
It will be interesting to see what comes out of the large gatherings at major cities these past few days.
On the network news just now, they said one of the Alabama pool partiers tested positive and was likely contagious while there. Possibly exposed hundreds as he moved from spot to spot during the weekend.
Also said Alabama opened 2 weeks ago and are now setting daily records for new cases.
Regional data, but interesting.
May 30, 2020 22:16:22 #
Riggson wrote:
On the network news just now, they said one of the Alabama pool partiers tested positive and was likely contagious while there. Possibly exposed hundreds as he moved from spot to spot during the weekend.
Also said Alabama opened 2 weeks ago and are now setting daily records for new cases.
Regional data, but interesting.
Also said Alabama opened 2 weeks ago and are now setting daily records for new cases.
Regional data, but interesting.
On the other hand, I haven't seen today's map, but Georgia has so far been doing quite well. Early reports were that consumers were cautious when the state first opened - maintained social distancing and did use masks.
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