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Experts and Their Models Continue Lowering Predicted Deaths from COVID-19
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Apr 10, 2020 12:30:05   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
1Feathercrest wrote:
Climate change is a product of nature and has been going on for millennia. We are not going to change nature's natural progression which is mainly caused by sunspot activity. A fraction of a degree in temperature change over a century is not an alarming global warming or caused by man. Would you rather live through the inevitable coming ice age or the warm "Greenland" period? That said, these climate changes are not during the a person's lifetime, but hundreds to thousands of years to occur. (and that is quick, since most changes are taking eons to occur)
Climate change is a product of nature and has been... (show quote)


At the risk of participating in yet another climate change never ending argument, let me just point out a couple of inconvenient facts. As you and others have mistakenly stated, climate change is not a straight line from the ice age until today. Google the little ice age that decimated crops and was responsible for a famine. This change didn’t occur over centuries, but over years, very much within a person’s lifetime. As for the contention that we cannot change the climate and to prove that the suggestion that we try to change the daily weather is just sophistry and BS. We can certainly change the climate by changing the atmosphere, and a reading/understanding of any of the thousands of available peer-reviewed papers by the earth’s climate scientists, NOAA or NASA should disabuse you of your current beliefs IF you take the trouble to actually research the facts. The only real question is not are we affecting the climate, but HOW MUCH.

Now go ahead and tell us how this is all a liberal, left wing hoax, propagated by the media. Even our beloved president, who was originally a climate change denier, has now come around in the face of irrefutable evidence of the change.

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Apr 10, 2020 12:31:27   #
drobvit Loc: Southern NV
 
Fotoartist wrote:
What are you talking about? You don't think those latest models factored in Distancing? The answer is they did. That's just how good models are. Name me one that was accurate in the past? Again the answer is none. And again, why should we trust Global warming models?


Because models are created by"experts"😆 the majority follow like sheep. Really sad that people let someone else do their research and thinking for them. As bad as it was, the SwineFlu did not generate this amount of madness. "Their" agenda becomes clearer everyday.

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Apr 10, 2020 12:32:21   #
Daryls Loc: Waco, TX
 
burkphoto wrote:
(off topic)

The only reason we do not have solar power, wind power, geothermal power, and hydroelectric power in more abundance is that the industries that want to keep us addicted to consumables (coal, gas, oil, etc.) have powerful lobbyists. It isn't because the newer technologies aren't inherently less costly.

Remember how quickly Kodak and Polaroid became almost extinct as they lost their markets to digital imaging technologies? Remember how Linotype machines died off? Swiss watches? Horse and buggy manufacturers? Vinyl records? Newspapers? Yes, you can still find some of each, but their markets are tiny little niches compared to what they once were, because superior technologies replaced them in the mainstream.

Renewable energy will prevail, if for no other reason than long run lower costs. The big tech companies power their server farms mostly with wind and solar energy farms, because once installed, a wind and solar farm pays for itself over time.
(off topic) br br The only reason we do not have ... (show quote)


Burkphoto,

What do you suggest we do about solar power dangers related to all the batteries that are required and their trillions of pounds (or kilos) of hazardous materials having to be disposed of every three to five years? What about the wind power windmills killing birds? How do we prevent that? And then what happens to the Earth if everyone is sucking the heat out from it? Will it gradually freeze to death? Don't make the solution worse than the problem.

Daryl

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Apr 10, 2020 12:34:21   #
CWGordon
 
Again, what SPECIFIC activities and PRODUCTIVITY are you writing about. I hate to be needlessly controlled by others and would welcome some convincing research to enlighten me. Thank you

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Apr 10, 2020 12:35:01   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
drobvit wrote:
Because models are created by"experts"😆 the majority follow like sheep. Really sad that people let someone else do their research and thinking for them. As bad as it was, the SwineFlu did not generate this amount of madness. "Their" agenda becomes clearer everyday.


So tell us how you arrive at better information than that produced by scientists and doctors (and models). Please share that information so we can all rise to your level of knowledge.

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Apr 10, 2020 12:36:10   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
Daryls wrote:
Burkphoto,

What do you suggest we do about solar power dangers related to all the batteries that are required and their trillions of pounds (or kilos) of hazardous materials having to be disposed of every three to five years? What about the wind power windmills killing birds? How do we prevent that? And then what happens to the Earth if everyone is sucking the heat out from it? Will it gradually freeze to death? Don't make the solution worse than the problem.

Daryl


And when we run out of fossil fuels (which will certainly happen), your solution to our energy needs is?

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Apr 10, 2020 12:41:58   #
mramra3
 
Fotoartist wrote:
What about the models predicting Global Warming? We've been told those models are settled science.

In fact, I think we are all enjoying our free 60 day trial of the Green New deal now.



There is no such thing as "settled science". If it's settled it isn't science, if its science it isn't settled.

"Settled science" is theology.

---a physicist

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Apr 10, 2020 12:50:11   #
CWGordon
 
Perhaps one should not use the word “settled.” Instead, we could say “accepted” by nearly all scientists. Alternately, we could use the term “near universal acceptance or agreement.” That might better convey the correct stance or position. Would that be helpful to others?

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Apr 10, 2020 12:52:06   #
aggiedad Loc: Corona, ca
 
In fact, it was not that many years ago that models were predicting a new ice age. As long as there are scientists who depend on grants, books and speaking tours for their livelihood, there will be predictions of doom.

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Apr 10, 2020 12:59:43   #
DennyT Loc: Central Missouri woods
 
Daryls wrote:
Nine days ago, the experts predicted about 160,000 deaths. Then on Tuesday, the IHME estimated about 82,000 people will die from coronavirus disease by August. On Wednesday, that estimate was lowered again to 60,415. I expect the predictions to be lowered again and again before this is over.

The CDC experts estimate 24,000 – 63,000 flu deaths from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020.

The experts and their models are drastically lowering their predicted death numbers because the assumptions they based the original predictions on were wrong, as were subsequent assumptions, along with limited data sets used for widespread predictions. That is why model predictions are so far off from reality. Just think about all the hurricane models and their inaccuracy. Think also about all the lottery models using advanced scientific methods and still cannot predict the winning numbers after more than 25 years of real detailed data.

Models are good for thinking about what-if contingencies. They are good for planning. Often, they are poor tools for actual response. To use any model's predictions successfully, we need to understand the underlying assumptions and the limitations of the data sets. Then the results need to be tested for sensitivity.

Since the experts do not really know (they are surmising only or guessing) why the numbers are going down, the model's underlying assumptions cannot be accurately adjusted. That is just the way models work.

My advice is to take any model's predictions with a huge grain of salt and a lot of critical thinking before taking any action based on its results. Do not allow fear of the unknown or mass hysteria to drive your into taking extreme actions you may later regret.

Daryl
Nine days ago, the experts predicted about 160,000... (show quote)


Models are based on assumptions. At the time of model predicting 160,000.. social distancing was virtually not talked about and certainly not push by then govt.

Now it pushed cover and over and people are listening. It is probable that the accurate ( at the time ) model of 160,000 is the reason that social distancing. Has accomplished so much

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Apr 10, 2020 12:59:51   #
Cookie223 Loc: New Jersey
 
dennis2146 wrote:
With due respect I am wondering how deaths from the virus are underreported? People are certainly dying and a cause of death is named. From what I have been hearing many deaths that are NOT related to the virus are being attributed to the virus. Someone dies from pneumonia and it is assumed by many that it is related to the virus when it may not be. People the world over are still dying of other causes by the hundreds of thousands. Sorry my friend but they are not all virus related. There are still heart attacks, normal flu that so far this year has killed thousands of people throughout the world. Not everything is virus related.

Dennis
With due respect I am wondering how deaths from th... (show quote)


I totally agree with you. My daughter is a Director of a chain of hospitals, and has conference calls 3 times a day with the CDC, and other health groups. Yes they’re many death world wide due to the virus, but just like you stated, many are not related to it either. The biggest reason for the spreading is due to the clueless, selfish stupid people who don’t take any precautions, and when they catch it they blame everyone, including the political party they’re not affiliated with.

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Apr 10, 2020 13:06:03   #
DocDav Loc: IN
 
Fotoartist wrote:
Climate change has been obvious since the last Ice Age. It's just the Left Wing scientists who are claiming there is a world catastrophe coming because their models equate a recent rise in CO2 levels with doomsday. Have they questioned the premises their models made lately? No. Because the science is presumably settled. And no one is able to question settled science we are told.


Actually, and i wasn't going to chime in as these discussions inevitable turn political and then to name calling on side or the other, climate change is rather settled and approximately 98% of climate scientists agree, both from the right and the left. Real science doesn't pick sides, the sides pick them. The current disagreements center around how fast and how much climate change and the contributions from human activity vs animal, vs cyclical. Don't ask me to prove that 98%, go look it up. Since your not a "Left Wing" scientist, presumably, you know how to google. Don't toss out nicknames towards people you know nothing about unless you can prove it. BTW, do you have proof climate change is proposed and supported by "Left Wing" scientists? NO? Then learn how to handle data. This points out you have little ability to think critically. PS. Yes, the models are constantly questioned, refined, and questioned again. That is what science does for itself. If new unknown evidence is found, that is compensated for. It is people with some political axe to grind or those who refuse to understand, or are too entrenched in their own Woo, who don't understand this. Some, (you?) are all the above.

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Apr 10, 2020 13:06:05   #
andesbill
 
So you think that the only scientists that are wrong, are the ones that disagree with you. And that’s greater than 99% of all climate scientists.
But don’t worry about spending the trillions of dollars that are necessary if we want to clean up the garbage we are putting into the atmosphere, the land, and our waters. We just spent it on what many of you right wingers called “no worse than the common cold”, “it’s just the flu folks”.
Currently, this ‘common cold’ is killing greater than 2% of all that have tested positive. The flu kills less than .1% of those tested, except when there is a novel flu virus like the Spanish flu, the 1957 strain, and H1N1.
Anyhow, one way or another our children & grandchildren are going to pay both for COVID19 and environmental mess we are leaving them.
The difference is, my grandkids will know I am doing everything I can to leave them a better world, and you are doing whatever you can to make things worse.

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Apr 10, 2020 13:06:09   #
Cookie223 Loc: New Jersey
 
Kjr.7007 wrote:
The numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths from the virus are vastly underreported. Why? Because very few people are being tested (people with clear COVID symptoms are being denied tests all across the country and are therefore not included in the tally), and people who have died from clear COVID symptoms are also not being tested and are therefore not included in the tally. Without accurate data on #of infections and # of deaths from this disease, we will never know the extent of the problem.


Could the lack of testing have anything to do with the fact, that no one expected it, hence no test kits available, and it does take time to develop an accurate testing procedure?

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Apr 10, 2020 13:09:05   #
clint f. Loc: Priest Lake Idaho, Spokane Wa
 
I read the entire 6 pages of political posturing and didn’t see a single mention of the vaccines that are being developed as we speak. Some observations; health care and costs are a fertile field for gaming the system. With the technology available the Spanish flue would not have been nearly as deadly especially if troops and readiness weren’t part of the equation. Everybody has an opinion regarding global warming but we all do want a cleaner and healthier world. The US is a leader in addressing that without giving mass $$$ to the UN. Green energy is not green at this time, nor is it cheap. Funding the Kennedy Center didn’t pay for a single respirator. People who say they are not liberal but spout the liberal talking points are liberal. We have had to adopt some behaviors that in the long term will be beneficial. We will be more conscious of personal space, food safety, hand washing and the like. We are learning about how duplicitous the Chicoms and their lapdog the WHO are. Wash your hands, don’t touch your face, don’t stand too close to others and don’t shake hands. Pray for rapid deployment of a vaccine.

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