Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Nine days ago, the experts predicted about 160,000 deaths. Then on Tuesday, the IHME estimated about 82,000 people will die from coronavirus disease by August. On Wednesday, that estimate was lowered again to 60,415. I expect the predictions to be lowered again and again before this is over.

The CDC experts estimate 24,000 – 63,000 flu deaths from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020.

The experts and their models are drastically lowering their predicted death numbers because the assumptions they based the original predictions on were wrong, as were subsequent assumptions, along with limited data sets used for widespread predictions. That is why model predictions are so far off from reality. Just think about all the hurricane models and their inaccuracy. Think also about all the lottery models using advanced scientific methods and still cannot predict the winning numbers after more than 25 years of real detailed data.

Models are good for thinking about what-if contingencies. They are good for planning. Often, they are poor tools for actual response. To use any model's predictions successfully, we need to understand the underlying assumptions and the limitations of the data sets. Then the results need to be tested for sensitivity.

Since the experts do not really know (they are surmising only or guessing) why the numbers are going down, the model's underlying assumptions cannot be accurately adjusted. That is just the way models work.

My advice is to take any model's predictions with a huge grain of salt and a lot of critical thinking before taking any action based on its results. Do not allow fear of the unknown or mass hysteria to drive your into taking extreme actions you may later regret.

Daryl

fantom Loc: Colorado

You make some excellent points.

Fotoartist Loc: Detroit, Michigan

What about the models predicting Global Warming? We've been told those models are settled science.

In fact, I think we are all enjoying our free 60 day trial of the Green New deal now.

SuperflyTNT Loc: Manassas VA

Hopefully it will be lowered again, but I think it’s more likely a reflection of social distancing working than a problem with the model.

Fotoartist Loc: Detroit, Michigan

What are you talking about? You don't think those latest models factored in Distancing? The answer is they did. That's just how good models are. Name me one that was accurate in the past? Again the answer is none. And again, why should we trust Global warming models?

fantom Loc: Colorado

I don't disagree with you but would hope that the model makers would have factored social distancing into the equation. If they didn't they should confine their models to plastic air planes. Based on experiences in Asia over the years there should be at least some trend data available.

SuperflyTNT Loc: Manassas VA

And it’s been a good example for all those idiots that claim climate change is a hoax.

fantom Loc: Colorado

Climate change is obvious but I would suggest that "all those idiots" are disputing the causes and brainless cures for it. The idiots are the ones who support AOC and her goofy fantasy land cohorts and solutions.

Fotoartist Loc: Detroit, Michigan

Climate change has been obvious since the last Ice Age. It's just the Left Wing scientists who are claiming there is a world catastrophe coming because their models equate a recent rise in CO2 levels with doomsday. Have they questioned the premises their models made lately? No. Because the science is presumably settled. And no one is able to question settled science we are told.

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Thanks Fantom. I appreciate it.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

100% right on Fotoartist. Without climate change we would all be dead. Just look at Mars and at the Moon - no climate change going on there.

That is one of the arguments I present when I teach the Science of Disasters to emergency managers, which often includes NWS personnel. They tell me the "science is settled" and a consensus of scientists believe it, so it must be correct. I then point out that there was a consensus of scientists, religious leaders, and political leaders who all believed the Earth as flat! If you didn't say you believed it too, you were persecuted and even executed! The same for the Earth being the center of the Universe. Both beliefs were and still are untrue. Consensus of belief does not mean fact, yesterday, today, or tomorrow.

Daryl

flyboy61 Loc: The Great American Desert

Modeling...maybe better than reading future portents in chicken entrails. I remember in College, one Professor had formed a small company. He brought a copy of their advertising display to show the class. He was very proud of the color scheme, which was terrible! When one of the students said it was, the Prof defended it by saying "It was chosen by the latest computer program computer!" I believed it!
Same thing with "models"; they are at best, a loose SWAG. But, they are all we have right now. And...Thank Heavens they have been wrong. (so far)

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Right on Flyboy61. A SWAG, at least. Most likely just a simple WAG with mathematical overtones. And I agree it is good news their predictions have been wrong, wrong, and wrong again (so far). They will get eventually their models right for this particular event only AFTER the pandemic is over and years of studies have been completed. Then the experts can get their models to reflect what happened when.

One other observation - Computers are dumb. They only can do what we program them to do and nothing more (yet). AI is still human programming. When I worked on computers back in the 1970's we used to say, "GIGO" was the problem we had to fix - Garbage In, Garbage Out. Still applies today.

Daryl

robertjerl Loc: Corona, California

And the new numbers may be too high. A Doctor (and state Senator in his state) on TV last night said that some doctors and esp hospital admin types have an incentive to classify patients as Covid-19 since an admission gets them a basic $16K and ICU or Ventilator patients kick it up to double or more-per patient from the government. Reporting a patient death as Corvid-19 also gets them benefits. So many are saying a patient who is positive for Covid-19 and dies was killed by the Covid-19 even if the cause of death is something else. At least a few cases of auto accident, heart attack etc have been listed as Covid-19 because they tested positive when admitted even though it was their injuries/heart attack that killed them.

ken_stern Loc: Yorba Linda, Ca

A question to the beloved Admin.:
HOW DID THIS TRASH NOT MAKE IT TO THE ATTIC ??????????????????????