xt2 Loc: British Columbia, Canada

About 18 months ago I wrote a short opinion regarding the gradual reduction of market share for the two DSLR big boys. You guessed it, the article received mixed reaction, however, the bulk of naysayers & blow-hards disparaged me as being uninformed and prattled on with corpulent word-smithing designed to intimidate and insure that every reader would be au fait with their particular expertise in marketing & the applied sciences, etc. and so, to be seen as a reputable source of condemnation.

Fast forward 18 months... reality has begun to set in for us all (yes I do enjoy some excellent DSLR gear) as well as other photographic gear from Fuji and Sony. Here is Canon explaining the dramatic drop in sales expected (by Canon's accounting) from 10 Million to 6 Million units sold by the end of 2020.

https://fstoppers.com/business/canon-expects-massive-drop-sales-end-2020-403470

I do not have a crystal ball and don't claim to foresee the future, however, apparently Canon does, and it looks shaky to say the least. Buckle-up boys!

BebuLamar

So it's bad? While I don't have the crystal ball either but the well being of Canon (or any camera manufacturers for that matter) doesn't matter to me.

Novicus Loc: north and east

This was expected...

Bill_de Loc: US

He said quite a while age that he expected a 50% drop, so I guess thing are looking up!

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ken_stern Loc: Yorba Linda, Ca

Oh my goodness -- Don't fret -- the good folks @ Canon will live-on & will get on to making something else & will sell it to somebody else

robertjerl Loc: Corona, California

A part of it is the big name brands cameras are "too good". They reached the MP level for up to 16x20 or so prints long ago and features that are way more than the casual photographer/snap shooter wants or cares to make use of and they are so well built they last a long time. So most of the market is saturated.
New customers often are content with their cell phones.
So they need to cut down on the large line ups of so many models, esp the P&S since those are the ones the cell phones replace. They should concentrate on the best they can produce for the money in say three or at most 4 models (dslr or mirrorless-which ever people want). Beginner, intermediate, high end and a pro level "HOW MUCH DOES THAT THING COST?" In the point and shoots make just a couple of models one that has a better sensor than a cell phone with a good control layout, and one high end one with a great sensor, lens and controls but small enough to go in a pocket for those serious photographers who sometimes want or need a small light camera for "just in case". I carry a nearly antique Panasonic ZS6 in my shirt pocket when I leave the house. Then one very good bang for the buck bridge/superzoom for those who want more than a P&S but don't want to carry or change lenses.
I seem to remember in the late 50s or 60s Nikon made a modular SLR that the pros could swap out things, my two Miranda Sensorex's had a modular view finder, pentaprism and pop it out and slide in a waist level with magnifier. If they even made them so sensors etc could be upgraded that would be great. A lot of people would be more likely to go for a newer sensor or processor instead of buying a whole new camera.

LFingar Loc: Claverack, NY

Only 6 million units per year? Why, that's hardly worth opening the factory doors for! So what! The ones who are going to be hurt the most are the factory workers who will lose their jobs due to reduced production. Canon is far more then just a consumer camera manufacturer. It is no wheres near to folding up it's tent and disappearing. Optics is it's core business. It's not going to just stop making cameras. We're probably just not going to see the variety and replacement cycle of cameras that we have come to expect. I can live with that and my bank account certainly won't complain.

rook2c4 Loc: Philadelphia, PA USA

If a technology-based manufacturer cannot stay competitive, then its role in the industry diminishes. Even the most brilliant marketing strategy has its limits.

JD750 Loc: SoCal

Camera technology is changing rapidly as is the camera market.

miked46 Loc: Winter Springs, Florida

YUP sales have been reduced, but they can rebound by making sure that their Mirrorless units are top notch.

billnikon Loc: Pennsylvania/Ohio/Florida/Maui/Oregon/Vermont

I have been doing photography for over 50 years, 35 of those 50 as a professional photographer. Never before have I seen so many different camera's, lenses, and accessories vying for consumer dollars.
Sure, when more and more companies are selling photo gear, the big three are going to have to share the market with many more competitors.
I believe the digital market has exploded over the past 15 years. Yes, it is time to buckle up. But NOT for the reasons you have suggested.

JDG3

I guess I read a little something different into this article. While no actual numbers are given, I suspect that photography (casual, hobby and pro) is only minor part of Canon's overall business. Remember Canon also builds copiers, printers and many other high end optical based equipment which makes up the largest part of their business. I believe these divisions are doing well.

The article also talks about how automation has decreased the costs and need for labor in many factories all over the world. As a recently retired Manufacturing Engineer, I can attest to that. Over my 30+ year career I saw our plant decrease its work force by almost 75% with automation. Output, quality and reliability went up and labor costs went down. Many articles have been written about the fact that it is automation that eliminates jobs NOT immigration and cheap labor.

I think Canon itself is well positioned for the future and will be fine. However, the consumer or pro-consumer camera business may be in for rough times. I could easily see them re-positioning their resources to more profitable areas. The cell phone has done that more than anything else. But someone else may step in and provide something even better for photographers.

ggab Loc: ?

Evolve or Die. The first law of business.
As a Canon USA employee, let me assure you. They have been and continue to Evolve.

khorinek

I agree! Sometimes manufactures get carried away with trying to appease their entire audience. The point & shoots are/will be replaced with cell phones eventually. Canon (and all camera manufactures) should concentrate their efforts on the needs of the largest group of customers. It took several years for Ford and GMC to figure this out. They sold many models that mirrored each other and became their own competitors, Pontiac, Buick, Saturn, Chevrolet, GMC all made similar models and ended up competing with each other. Ford dropped the Mercury line a few years ago. It's a tough market today and with the tariff war it's going to get tougher.

BebuLamar

So if it goes out of business does that matter? That is my question. Note: I don't know if it will as I don't have the crystal ball.