pendennis wrote:
There are a lot of "ifs" here.
In the fall of 1974, in one of my advanced Poly Sci classes, we went through this same scenario. At the time, President Ford had already nominated the liberal Republican Nelson Rockefeller. We were required to forecast our picks just before the hearings ended. Since Rockefeller was a liberal, we figured it would be a dead nuts pick. We were correct. The House approved Rockefeller 287-128, the Senate 90-7.
Here, the process gets complicated, especially if Biden resigns before the 2022 mid-term e******ns. As it stands, with the Senate split 50-50, there will be no President Pro Tempore of the Senate if Harris assumes the Presidency. And with two "renegade" Democrats (Manchen, WV, and Sinema, AZ), there is the possibility that Harris couldn't get her pick for VP through Congress. The 25th Amendment states states that a Vice President is elected "who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority v**e of both Houses of Congress." The amendment doesn't specify an affirmative v**e in the aggregate. However, members of Congress do hold the party line when it comes to organizational issues.
If the scenario were to play out after the 2022 mid-terms, it's likely that Harris, would have to really compromise, since the House and Senate are likely to change hands.
As it stands, I believe that Biden will try to hold on until 2024, unless other parts of the 25th Amendment are brought into play.
Harris' chances of being nominated in 2024? Slim to none, and Slim's headed out of town.
There are a lot of "ifs" here. br br In... (
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