gouldopfl wrote:
I just read an article from Petapixel that says Canon is getting ready for a world where world wide camera sales will be less than 10 million units compared to 121 million units 10 years ago. I would assume that much of this is due to smartphone sales.
It makes me wonder how much of this is loss is from sales of lower end cameras rather than the mainstream cameras used by hobbyist and professionals. Has the market significantly contracted at those levels?
I've said it before here, and I will say it again. Based on my daily experience with both kids and young adults, most of what is going on in the world of dedicated photography is coming from lazy research and faulty conclusions. The consequences are the self-inflicted results of not understanding the market.
I am surrounded every day by both young adult teachers (and a few older ones) and kids. Every one of them knows how to skillfully use his or her cell phone to produce images that are as good or better than many of those posted on this forum. They are also very good (and very comfortable) at both shooting and editing videos to tell a story. Their story telling is a lot better than most of the story telling here. And many of them really do prefer to do it with a "real camera," believe it or not.
As a result, many of these folks do have and use "real cameras." They ask me questions all the time about how to do "this thing" or "that thing," or how to do it better. We generally work through the question together and figure out how to do what they want to do.
What we run into, though, over and over again, is that the lower cost cameras that they tend to use are "under good," and the better cameras are "over priced." We quickly find a solution to their question on my D500 or even my D300s, but then struggle to figure out how to do it on their D3500 or D5300 or whatever camera they happen to have. The ease of the solution available to me versus the complexity that they have to go through becomes a disincentive to them. The gap between the two kills both the interest and the progression that the manufacturers intend to see as they seek to migrate their customers to more capable models. Instead of generating another sale, it pushes the new photographer back to the cell phone.
Nikon has announced that it is going to discontinue its low-end DSLRs and focus only on high-end models. We have yet to see anything remotely resembling an entry-level mirrorless interchangeable lens camera from them or from anyone else. In my opinion, discontinuing the DSLRs is a good idea. They are poorly designed, do not offer a smooth migration path to the better cameras, and are just in general a dead-end choice, even though they are, without question, capable of taking great photographs. But if my only experience were with a D3500, it would certainly not inspire or motivate me to fork over the money for a D500, at not least on its own merits. (Note that I cannot speak to the bridge camera models or any of the recent true 'point and shoot' models.)
Affordable entry-level equipment is critical for bringing new practitioners into a hobby (or profession). But it has to be both capable and usable. And it has to offer a reasonable range of basic features. And the step-up products cannot be over priced. Today's entry-level cameras do not do that. Nor do they offer a seamless upgrade path that does not require essentially starting over to learn the basics of the process. And the higher end cameras are significantly over priced (sale pricing proves that). If the manufacturers fix those things, they will take the first steps to fixing what is wrong. The market need not be dead. The desire is still there. The obstacles just need to be removed.