zug55 Loc: Naivasha, Kenya, and Austin, Texas

I think that Tony Northrup is one of the smartest people and one of the most astute observers in the business. But these are predictions, and we have to take them as that. It is just an informed opinion--although he is better informed than most. As with all predictions, they may come true, or not. We still listen to Wall Street gurus about their predictions. And somehow we accept that they are not always right because who can predict the stock market?

We all can see that the low-end consumer camera is already dead. But the compact cameras with one-inch sensors or with great telephoto lenses may have a future.

I think that Tony's point is also that the Micro 4/3 format may be in trouble because the companies making them may be in trouble. With the camera market shrinking we may see some companies dropping out. I think that Canon, Nikon and Sony are here to stay, and probably Panasonic. And the others? The fact that most of them are trying to get into the mirrorless full-frame market is an indication that they themselves do not believe that they can make it in the 4/3 market.

PS: I think that it also has become evident that the days of the DSLR are numbered. We no longer need smart gurus to tell us that. With that knowledge, it would be unethical to recommend that people still invest in DSLR systems. The only reason why it still makes sense to buy new DSLR cameras is if you own lenses built for that system.

mikeroetex Loc: Lafayette, LA

How exciting! in 2 years I will be able to buy the D850 I dream about for practically nothing! I mean, if it's on the internet, especially from Northrup, it must be true!

Rich1939 Loc: Pike County Penna.

Brucej67 Loc: Cary, NC

Nikon still makes the f6 film camera which is more expensive than some DSLR's https://www.amazon.com/Nikon-35mm-Film-Camera-Body/dp/B0006GQ6K6

OlinBost Loc: Marietta, Ga.

What I have does more than what I want. I will use it all until they fall apart, or when I past, then my grand-kids can decide what to do with it.

dbjazz Loc: Long Island, NY

If you believe Northrup, I have a bridge you might want to buy.

burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC

Nikon FTn, 24mm f/2.8, 35mm f/2, 55mm f/3.5,

Nikon F3HP with pin registration back and precision viewfinder reticle, 55mm f/2.8

Bronica ETRSi and backs, two lenses (75 and 150?)

Minolta SRT200 and two lenses (50 and 135?)

Canon A1 and two lenses (28 and 50?)

Lots of filters, mostly 52mm

I’m not really interested in selling... yet. I have a family member who may want to go through it and pick.

I haven’t used the Bronica or Canon since 1998. The Minolta probably hasn’t been used since 1985. The F3HP is a special application camera made for composing multiple image slides on a copy rig. Its lens is frozen (won’t focus), and it hasn’t been used since 1996.

The FTn hasn’t been used since 2004.

BebuLamar

Sorry I didn't rephrase Navywife66 correctly. Navywife66 said "Imagine if everyone who saw that video believed him.. everyone ran out and sold or traded their equipment.". I wonder why would the ran out and sold or traded their equipment?

BebuLamar

How much you want for the A1 cheap? I paid $17 for mine and the 50mm f/1.8.

Navywife66 Loc: NC

No worries I just was quoted before as saying something I never said. It’s surprising to me that this happened to be honest. Having your words twisted and written by another is wrong but it is what it is. I have never seen him before to be honest and watched the whole video though. I really don’t believe that it will be a couple of years that the Dslr will be done with.. I believe it will take a much longer time span than that and even then because of all the lenses that will needs adapters? Ehh..it remains to be seen..thanks for your message. Have a wonderful weekend!

burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC

I'll keep it. Its presence in my camera display case is worth $100, even if the camera isn't.

burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC

I agree with you. I've watched Tony for years, now. Most of the time, he and Chelsea make a lot of sense, and they do a good job teaching. I have a copy of *Stunning Digital Photography* on my computer.

But every now and then, Tony goes off on a tangent tirade, and you wonder what he's put in his Ovaltine.

In 2012, a photo educator, Chicago commercial photographer, consultant to the military, and frequent speaker at photography industry conventions, Will Crockett, thought that mirrorless cameras would kill dSLRs in two years. It didn't happen. Canon and Nikon were not on board. The hardware wasn't there yet. And there are simply too many people using dSLRs for it to happen that quickly. They have too much money tied up in gear, and too much fear of the unknown.

I do think a shift will happen, but predicting when, how fast, and who will be the survivors is silly. Ricoh is still around, making Pentax, for goodness' sake. Sony bought Konica Minolta and partnered with Zeiss. Panasonic has Lumix, partnered with Leica. And on it goes...

I switched from both full frame and APS-C dSLRs to Panasonic Lumix Micro 4/3. I have to believe that a LOT of people are using both Lumix and Olympus Micro 4/3 gear for the same reasons I am. Sometimes a camera system switch is about what it does, very differently, and not about what you give up to get that.

PH CIB

I watched Tony's Video,,,he made the comment 4/3rds uses Contrast Detect Autofocus which is not as fast as Phase Detect for Sports and Wildlife seeming to forget about Olympus which uses both Phase and Contrast for Autofocus and while my Nikon 1 V2 and lenses are discontinued,,,it seems the one inch sensor in the Sony Cameras are selling well,,,,I do think Mirrorless will eventually make up the bulk of camera sales but that will probably take ten years or more as Camera Companies never give us a Camera with everything they give it to us in bits and pieces so they can sell cameras each year and as R&D progresses there will be more and more useful innovations in mirror less in the next ten years...besides I see many Beautiful Photos on this Forum by Nikon and Canon users so why switch to Mirrorless if a DSLR is producing such great pictures....

burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC

There are many great reasons to switch to Micro 4/3 mirrorless. Few of them have to do with sports and wildlife action, unless you record video. Still, there is the 100-400mm Leica zoom that has the effective reach of a 200-800mm f/4-f/6.3 on full frame!

For video, it's hard to beat the Lumix GH5 and GH5s for less than $3500, no matter what the form factor. Few dSLRs appeal to filmmakers more than a GH5/GH5s.

Everyone wants all the benefits of both Phase Detect (speed) and Contrast Detect AF (accuracy), and we want them in every focus mode on the camera. That just won't happen with any camera right now. Some are better than others, at some things. You have to decide what's important for what you photograph, and choose accordingly. Just as important as having the right technology is using its features appropriately.

Image "quality" is usually assumed to be some combination of resolution, size, color depth, noiselessness, sharpness, focus accuracy, desirable depth of field, i.e.; optical performance. But there is FAR MORE to owning and using a camera system than just that.

Most of the time, our images will wind up being viewed on screens. Very few prints are made in 2018, compared to 1998. We email, text, and share our images via a multitude of sharing platforms. Few of us want prints of family and family events, with the possible exception being the wedding album. For screen viewing, even a smartphone will make decent images, especially the latest ones with all their processing intelligence. For more advanced uses, there are several classes of pocket cameras and superzoom travel cameras. Then there are Micro 4/3, APS-C, and full frame interchangeable lens cameras.

Which to choose? There are no perfect cameras! There are only cameras that serve your needs, right now. Maybe you need and use several different ones, one at a time. Choice depends on hundreds of factors.

Lumix Micro 4/3 (a GH4 and three lenses) appealed to me for several reasons:

> I could replace a Canon EOS 50D still camera system and a Canon GL2 video camera system in two big Pelican cases with one Lumix system in a much smaller, lighter bag that fits under an airline seat. I pay fewer excess baggage charges, and worry less about equipment security — and going through security.

> Because of the age of my old gear, I could drastically improve video quality for the work I do (replacing 480P with Full HD and 4K for training content production).

> I have better audio quality and audio control for video than I had with the older Canon GL2.

> I have improved still image quality over APS-C (although in the context of what I do, that simply does not matter... it was already good enough for PDF, booklet, and eLearning media).

> I can often record 4K video and extract still images from it that are suitable for my uses, negating the need to make stills and video of the same content for use in different media.

> The gear works the same way for stills and video, because it is the same gear!

> JPEG images and video look the same, so I can insert stills into video content without a major visual difference.

> The combination of EVF and absolutely silent electronic shutter make surreptitious photography a reality. I can photograph a stage play without anyone knowing I'm doing so.

I could go on and on and on about the advantages of Micro 4/3 I never had with dSLRs or film. Mirrorless works well for me. It might not work for someone else. Use what you need. The camera market IS NOT a zero-sum game.

Vince68 Loc: Wappingers Falls, NY

Thats just his opinion, which by the way, are just like a**holes, everybody has one. I don't consider him a guru by any means, and personally, I don't pay to much attention to anything he says.

Just my 2¢ on Tony Northrup and his prophecies.