Dow numbers "Magic" (Page 2): Trump will cause the stock market to fall, with out the Democrats being involved. We are over due to have a market correction.

Dziadzi Loc: Wilkes-Barre, PA

SteveR wrote:

Before the Democrats take over.

Trump will cause the stock market to fall, with out the Democrats being involved. We are over due to have a market correction.

DirtFarmer Loc: Escaped from the NYC area, back to MA

johnst1001a wrote:

...Interestingly with all the buzz that Democrats are going to have the majority in the House, has not moved the markets. I would have thougth if this was going to be a factor, some movement would already have happened.

The market doesn't respond strongly to buzz, although some movement does occur. The real movement will come when the congress does something positive or negative.
The economy is still showing signs of strength although tariffs are worrying a lot of people. And there's a lot of people making noise about value investing (based on things like the P/E or PEGrowth).

I don't believe the correlation of the stock market direction with the inhabitant of the white house is strong. The republicans have put through tax measures that have encouraged the market (Trump didn't do it by himself) but the current protectionist mindset did not lead to good results in the '30s. This situation is not the same as then so we are not necessarily in the same boat but political actions do affect the market in some cases.

ole sarg Loc: south florida

You are a wise man!

johnst1001a wrote:

The stock market went from 10,700 to just under 7000 during the Bush years and Republican control of the house and senate. During the Obama years, the market went from 7000 to about 18,000. During the Clinton years, the market went from the mid 3000's to 10,700. So far for Trump, the market has gone from 18000's to 25,000+. So, it would seem to me it is hard to pin market direction on who is in the White House. Yes, if the market is juiced up with tax incentives or with stimulus packages, the market will move up, but then over time, the market goes back to where earnings drive the value of the market.
Would I be cautious during the election period this year, yes, I would. I am going to start selling some of my stocks that have seen more gain than I think is warranted just for their earnings growth. For instance, I will be selling Amazon, Netflix. Amazon is up 145% since I bought it, and the company has a very high P/E ratio. Netflix, I am up about 70%, but with the subscriber numbers slowing down, I believe this stock is getting more risky. What is more likely to cause the market downturn is any significant inflation caused by the tariff program, or simply a very high GDP growth, resulting in the Fed raising interest rates to slow it down a bit so as to reduce inflation rates. Shifting to bonds is what many people do or simply CD's to take advantage of the higher interest rates.
People do get greedy, I am a victim of greed too, so we tend to hold on to stocks at high levels, then when the market starts to swing down, we sell way to late, and lose a lot of what we have gained.
Ok, there are three potential things that will happen in the future, the market will either go up, stay the same, or go down. Very few people have ever predicted the market accurately. Those with a ton of money in the market have ways of protecting their risks with hedging, but I am not smart enough to do this.
Interestingly with all the buzz that Democrats are going to have the majority in the House, has not moved the markets. I would have thougth if this was going to be a factor, some movement would already have happened.

The stock market went from 10,700 to just under 70... (show quote)

HamB

My error...
I thought this forum was for photography advise..
I should have looked in Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes....

jaymatt Loc: Alexandria, Indiana

The Dems will kill the boom if they get in.

OlinBost Loc: Marietta, Ga.

I just had my account changed from aggressive (10) to moderate (2 / 50-50 between stocks and bonds). Call it a gut feeling. The stocks that I purchased on my own are long term, 5 to 15 years.

lenben Loc: Seattle

Note that the rise in the stock index is due to five tech stocks that Trump has nothing to do with (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix,Microsoft). Without these the rest of the market has shown a modest decline since Trump. For the past 50 years the market has gone up under Dems and dropped under the GOP. Check it out. Finally I note that the genius guys who manage mutual funds only beat the Dow 15% of the time so I personally buy individual stocks (generally through Schwab) and mostly buy and hold. If you do not want to monitor your assets, the best strategy is to buy ETFs.

gerdog

SteveR wrote:

Before the Democrats take over.

I seem to remember that George Bush was at the helm for the last crash.

philo Loc: philo, ca

i have two axiom about the market
#up like a feather and down like a rock.
#to word that drive the market........greed and fear.
My number one stock is QQQ which is like a mutual fund but traded like and equity.

gerdog

The smart people (Warren Buffet, for example) don't sell if the market drops, they buy. You only lose when you panic. And as others have pointed out, the Trump "boom" has been nothing but a continuation of the trend that began under Obama. We should all be on the watch for increasing inflation instead. That is the real danger.

chikid68 Loc: Tennesse USA

SteveR wrote:

What do you invest in, stocks or mutual funds? On... (show quote)

Amazon is going to take a significant dip after the q3 reports come out however it will bounce back and then some after the q4 reports it has always had this pattern ever since they went public a smart investor could flip it for a tidy profit and buy again in may when the employees tend to sell their allotment of stockwhich usually comes during a quarterly dip as well .

FRENCHY Loc: Stone Mountain , Ga

SteveR wrote:

Before the Democrats take over.

And destroy everything as planned..for years.

gerdog

Funny how everyone thinks that democrats are the irresponsible ones, when it's the tax cut and spend republican policies that bury us in debt. Everyone forgets that Clinton actually had a budget surplus his last 2 years, before Bush came in and gave it all away. The national debt would have been paid off by now if we had stayed with Clinton's taxing and spending levels. Instead, BOTH sides have given up on balancing the budget.

FRENCHY Loc: Stone Mountain , Ga

gerdog wrote:

Funny how everyone thinks that democrats are the irresponsible ones, when it's the tax cut and spend republican policies that bury us in debt. Everyone forgets that Clinton actually had a budget surplus his last 2 years, before Bush came in and gave it all away. The national debt would have been paid off by now if we had stayed with Clinton's taxing and spending levels. Instead, BOTH sides have given up on balancing the budget.

Read this and comment, please.

http://www.craigsteiner.us/articles/16

gerdog

FRENCHY wrote:

Read this and comment, please.

http://www.craigsteiner.us/articles/16

You are falling into their game where they use the fiscal year figures rather than the total year figures, The government fiscal year ends in September. When you look at the entire year of 2000, there was an 18 billion dollar surplus. Plus ALL of the projections for the future were for the surplus to grow. Then Bush and Gore BOTH promised big tax cuts and increased social services spending, leaving the voters no real choice. It's why the 2000 election was dead even. Both candidates promised to give away all the fiscal gains. The middle class believes in paying their bills, and making the future better for their offspring. Politicians don't get that. They would have been willing to leave the tax rates where they were in 2000 if it meant that our national debt would have been paid down. Republicans were all against deficit spending until they got all the power. Now they want ordinary Americans to believe that deficits don't matter, and that economic growth will more than make up for it. Just another lie that we are supposed to swallow. You can't cut government spending without hurting the economy, so don't expect Republicans to act fiscally responsible any time soon.