Wingpilot Loc: Wasilla. Ak

That’s what I think. That thought has been mentioned a time or two on UHH, and I’ve always wondered why anyone would think that mirrorless cameras are inferior to DSLR’s.

tdekany Loc: Oregon

I’m sticking with Olympus, but mirrorless has been going on for 10 years. Both Canon and Nikon should have a good idea what makes a winning mirrorless camera. Their customer base is so huge that no matter what they make, it will sell enough to be profitable. But let’s see what Peterff has to say about that.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

Nice! Glad to know you have a sense of humor!

Gotta go cook salmon now!

Cdouthitt Loc: Traverse City, MI

My favorite. Opting for 7 (searing) with the the Searzall.
http://www.seriouseats.com/2016/08/the-food-lab-complete-guide-to-sous-vide-salmon.html

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

I thought I already had. Do I need to repeat it?

Apparently it was in other threads, here are two recent posts:...

"I do expect mirrorless technology to replace DSLR technology, I just don't think that it is there yet for my personal needs."

"....I think it is going to be a long transition, which Canon, Nikon, others have to navigate successfully if they are going to prosper. One might consider it 'Crossing the Chasm' (Geoffrey Moore) as startup companies have to manage, or 'Who Says Elephants Can't Dance?' (Lou Gerstner) about transforming a behemoth. Lessons to be learned, and fortunes to be lost. I have seen (and been part of) many startups falling into the chasm, and many behemoths fall by the wayside, and be absorbed into other enterprises, sometimes to continue their slide into the abyss.

Interestingly enough most of the companies we are discussing here are in the behemoth category - Canon, Nikon, Sony, Panasonic, Olympus, Fuji, Pentax, and so on. I do believe that mirrorless, EVFs, electronic shutters et al will be the next end game, but to be successful at a system level takes decades, and it also typically takes a decade or more for big companies to die, just like the UHH community. The truth is that very few startups or behemoths actually survive the transition.

So far Canon is doing extremely well, both in corporate success and in the camera markets, both new and old. Sony hasn't been without its problems, but is now widely acknowledged as the leader in sensors for both smartphones and ILC cameras, however as a company it is still in turnaround mode. I won't comment on the others since I don't have time to do a robust analysis, although it would be an interesting project if someone would pay me enough to do it, but nobody on UHH could or would be able / willing to afford that.

Bottom line, I think we mostly agree where the market is going, but it is going to be slow journey at a system and company level. Especially as we old farts die off, and the new generation of talented smart phone users look beyond the photographic capabilities of a basic $1,000 smartphone."

So, by all means keep debating. I certainly believe that mirrorless cameras will be the next step in the product evolution. I'm not personally ready to go there yet, but that doesn't mean that they are not the best option for other people, it is simply a matter of personal choice. I certainly do not believe that mirrorless cameras are technically inferior to DSLRs, I think they have some advantages and some disadvantages currently. The vendor prediction is much harder to call, and I have lived that for decades and been quite well paid for my analysis. Much of which has proved quite accurate, and some have definitely missed the mark. I'm still involved in analyzing and predicting technology markets, at the moment mostly crypto-currencies and quantum computing, and of course I have my opinions about individual vendors, but I would not publish my opinions on their future status. I might express opinions on what I consider the criteria for success to be.

For the record, I consider Olympus, Panasonic, Fujifilm, Ricoh-imaging (Pentax), Sony, and others to be delivering excellent product, and each is pushing the market along, I accept that Canon and Nikon are currently lagards in that regard, but I have also seen lagards let the upstarts fight the first skirmishes and then sweep in to win the day on more than one occasion.

My personal perspective, since you asked, is that the field is open, the day is far from won, and it may be today's smartphone users that wish to grow beyond the capabilities of their multi-function devices that will set the rules for the next generation of users and vendor / technology success.

Does that address your request for what I have to say sufficiently? Mirrorless will dominate and replace DSLR technology. In what form I am uncertain. Who supplies them and leads the market I am not at all certain, and am unwilling to speculate. I am convinced that it will take a lot longer than many people think it will. Some on UHH will not be around to see the end game play out.

Market transitions are complicated and many factors come into play. All I know is that the future will happen, and despite the fact that I work there, I may not be part of it.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

Nice, thank you. I'm using a 1950's era gas range (O'Keefe & Merritt) and a little bit of help from Paul Prudhomme's blackened redfish magic. A reduced tomato sauce, small potatoes boiled in rosemary, and steamed broccoli al dente. Together with carbonated water, either a Merlot or a Carménère, and of course, my good lady wife!

Isn't life a bitch!

Take care, good Sir!

tdekany Loc: Oregon

I meant, do you agree that Nikon can deliver a D850 caliber mirrorless on first try? I know where you stand, read it a million times.

And hopefully, you know where I stand. I just want to see excellent captures, I don’t care what camera took the shot.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

Since you ask, on first try I doubt it. However I am an interested observer, and I am more than willing to be proven wrong. I would like to see Nikon succeed, but it will be a hard row to hoe in my personal opinion.

tdekany Loc: Oregon

I’m not a Nikon (DSLR) fan but only because I prefer an evf. But looking at the recent offerings, I seem to think that Nikon figured out what it takes to produce a winner: D500/D850/D5

Why would they come out with a subpar product? The FF version HAS to be as good as the Sony A7rIII. Don’t you think?

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

I think that it has to be close enough, and handle legacy Nikon lenses. The Nikon sensors are still made by Sony as far as I understand. Although my personal choice is to use Canon, I believe that Sony's sensor technology is currently ahead of Canon's, but Canon is investing in catching up. Such is the nature of transitional markets.

I don't think that either Canon or Nikon can afford to deliver many 'sub par' products, but I don't see that at a critical stage yet for either company, however the clock is ticking.

rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA

I'm thinking that much of Nikon's current panache comes from their AF module - they'll need to repeat that with completely different technology in order to come up with MILC winners

tdekany Loc: Oregon

Well, the tech is there for sure - Sony A9

wdross Loc: Castle Rock, Colorado

You do realize that there are now 100+ lenses ranging from 180° fisheye to 840mm angle of view equivalent and most of the wide angle to short telephoto pro lenses at f1.2 to f2.8 and the telephoto pro lenses at f2.8 to f5.6. And it can all be used on an Olympus or Panasonic body.

The last I heard about Canon or Nikon, neither of them had a 100 lenses that were for their specific mount.

And although I am not a member, I know Olympus also has a pro members group for info and servicing.

I know that Olympus and Panasonic cannot satisfy ever photographic need - there is no camera that exist that can do that. But some of the points you have brought up are no longer very strong points.

kymarto Loc: Portland OR and Milan Italy

Actually there are guys now switching to Sony mirrorless, especially the A9. They are getting their system together, which is why so far Canikon have reigned in that category. And truth be told, a lot of the advantages of mirrorless are not as important in the world of photojournalism as they are in other areas.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

So Toby, since you are a professional, an accomplished photographer, a man of sound mind that wasn't born yesterday and have been around a few blocks more than once....

Do you have an opinion on how long technology / industry transitions such as this take to play out?