Keenan wrote:
You completely ignored all of my points regarding the direct causal relationship between droughts and increased frequency and severity of wildfires. Why?
You also completely ignored my points regarding the definition of droughts, and the fact that you made a completely illogical and physically impossible claim that trees take water out of rivers and aquifers, and that is the cause of droughts - a moronic conspiracy theory about droughts being f**e that is even more bats**t crazy than Alex Jones' "droughts are a h**x" idiocy posted on Infowars.com
You simply evade, and then keep changing the subject back to your rant about forest management and suppression of wildfires. I agree with you that strict fire suppression was a mistake and can lead to fuel building up and causing bigger fires in the future. But that is a separate issue from increased wildfires caused by droughts, which are increasingly being made worse and more frequent due to g****l w*****g. These are completely separate issues, and they are not mutually exclusive causes of increased wildfires like you keep falsely insisting, because you don't know what you are talking about and refuse to listen to the facts.
Again, what you need to do is stop speaking out of your arse about subjects that you know nothing about. You have adopted the groupthink of the American Right Wing Morons, to have a knee jerk rejection of c*****e c****e science, and to gullibly swallow any and all f****l f**l industry funded disinformation you hear on right wing media. This makes it extremely difficult to have rational conversations with you.
I guess I should tell you why I actually know a lot more about these issues than most people. I grew up in Oregon and saw the massive environmental damage done by massive clear cutting that was allowed for decades on federally owned and state owned forest land. The regulations to stop the clear cutting were desperately needed and was a long time in coming. I then went to college and continued pursuing my environmental interests, and I got my bachelor's degree in Environmental Studies. Among the various issues I focused on was c*****e c****e. I also studied a lot about ecology and ecosystems. This is why when I hear ignorant uneducated people spouting off on these subjects without any training or education or knowledge in these subjects whatsoever, it's worse than hearing nails on a chalkboard. It just annoys the hell out of me to no end that so may right wingers think they can become experts on complex technical fields and scientific disciplines without doing any actual training or any of the things one needs to do to become knowledgable and gain expertise in these kinds of very complex disciplines, and then they buy into some narrative they hear on right wing propaganda media that comes from industry disinformation, that claims that the professionally trained scientific experts are all either dumb, brainwashed, or involved in some elaborate h**x to make stuff up. You right wingers think you can just make it up as you go along and re-write science to fit your pre-determined narrative. Your particular combination of arrogance, ignorance, and moronic illogical ways of thinking about these things, makes me extremely frustrated. I just cannot understand what is wrong with the brain of right wingers to make themselves so willfully ignorant and stupid and living in their own bubble of reality, completely separated from the rest of the world.
You completely ignored all of my points regarding ... (
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The clear cutting that you are talking about is Western Oregon. We are talking about Eastern Oregon. There has never been clear cutting in Eastern Oregon. They clear cut douglas fir because the roots are interconnected so if you selectively cut a lot of other trees will eventually fall anyway because their root structure is weakened.
They may well have cut too much timber in Western Oregon, however, that isn't where the fires have been.
As far as the drought issue, there is a connection between what I answered and what you said, you just aren't seeing it.
In arid areas it is never as simple as low rainfall totals = drought. As far as rainfall totals go much of Eastern Oregon is technically desert. However, it doesn't look like desert.
The area gets less than 10 inches of rain a year. Some years significantly less. However, low rainfall totals and drought in the region are not necessarily one and the same thing. That is because the region relies heavily on snowfall in the mountains for moisture.
In 1967 and again in 1996 we had heavy snowfall, and then a warm period in January or February that led to sudden melt. Because the ground was still frozen nothing soaked in from the melt and there was severe flooding downstream.
That left no moisture in the ground, and although it was heavier than normal snowfall, we ended up with drought in both summers despite heavier than normal precipitation.
On the other hand the last three years were drier than normal, but because of when the snowpack melted only one of those years actually had drought.
In spite of your definition if there is water in the reservoirs and good moisture content in the ground in the spring the symptoms of drought don't actually appear until there have been multiple successive dry years.
The reason I keep coming back to trees is because of how much moisture juniper trees take out of the system. If you read the study that architect posted you will see just how much moisture juniper can take out of the system. The study shows that in some cases it can be as much as 79 percent of the moisture.
Since that never makes it into the ground and past the root system that leaves the surrounding ground cover dried out and vulnerable to fire, but more importantly every gallon of water that a juniper tree takes, and they can take up to 55 gallons of water a day is that much less water that percolates down to the aquifer or gets into the springs and eventually into the springs and rivers.
By the same token when the forest is allowed to get thicker than is natural that takes moisture out of the system. Then when you get a dry year you have vegetation under stress and drier than normal, which makes for explosive fire conditions.
The funny thing about fire in the high desert is that when you have a dry winter the fire forecasters say that it may be a bad fire year because of how dry it is, but when there is a wet winter then they say it may be a bad fire year because of how much ground cover grew, leaving lots of fuel for fires once the terrain dries out.
In the one situation the fire danger is from drought, but in the other condition the fire danger came from a wetter than normal winter and early spring.
And once again when the forest hasn't been thinned that makes it more vulnerable to fire and makes the fires bigger.
In other words the symptoms that look much like drought are often caused by poor forest management. Historically ponderosa pine had about 10 mature trees per acre. There are areas in the national forest currently with 100 plus trees in the same area.
That means a fire that might have burnt up a tree to it's branches would only k**l the one tree. Now the trees are so close together that once a fire crests atop one tree it spreads from treetop to treetop k*****g the trees that would have previously been unharmed by the fire.
As they have begun to remove juniper the grasses have begun to regrow and the springs have started flowing again and the water in the small creeks and rivers has become better. Unfortunately they have only done forest management projects in a small fraction of the forest.
Once again that goes back to logging. The forest projects were all financed by logging and it is no longer allowed in virtually all of the east side forest.
What is especially galling about that is that the logging in eastern Oregon was stopped because of faulty information.
I know that you will probably not believe this, but it is the t***h. My uncle was a forester in the forest service for 40 years. He has a doctorate in forest management and spent most of his time with the forest service doing research on proper replanting techniques.
He retired when the forest service chose to ignore the data from the research that my uncle and his partner did. However, both Wyerhouser (sorry about the misspelling) and Spain are currently using their data.
That's just a side note. My uncle and his partner were both GS15s, so very high up in the forest service.
During the early 1980s there was a debate about the spotted owl and whether or not it was endangered.
My uncle lives in the San Francisco Bay area, but their research projects were near Yosemite, near Lassen, and in the Klamath Basin in northern California and southern Oregon.
They started counting spotted owls during there trips and plotting where they found nesting pairs. Eventually the forest service looked at their data on owls and asked them to write a spotted owl recovery plan. My uncle refused because he said that the data showed that they weren't endangered.
His partner, however, agreed to write the plan. They then took that plan minus the first two or three paragraphs and used it to stop logging.
The start of his document said something very much like "This is a recovery plan for the spotted owl for in the event that it is to ever become endangered. The owl currently has good population numbers in it's normal range, and therefore has no need of any assistance. However, if that were to change the following steps would become necessary in order to protect habitat."
That section of the plan was quickly eliminated and one other major change was also made. The forest service arbitrarily labelled the owl as the northern spotted owl and the southern spotted owl and said that any owls north of the Klamath River were northern spotted owls and any south were southern spotted owls.
The reason that is significant is the Klamath River is near the northern edge of the spotted owls range. The reason is because the barred owl lives in Washington and much of Oregon and they attack spotted owls. Spotted owls live in old growth forest in the northern end of their range because the cover protects them from the barred owl. Consequently virtually all spotted owls in Oregon were in the Cascades and the west side forests.
Interestingly in California where the owls have no predator they often nest in scrub oak.
The forest service scientists used that difference in nesting pattern to say that it was two separate subspecies and quickly labelled the northern spotted owl as endangered. They then used that to stop virtually all logging in the east side forests under the guise that the owls were most endangered there since there were virtually no nesting pairs. That fact was correct, but the reason is because it was never part of their primary habitat.
Since the forest service had already been suppressing fires and the forest had been getting thicker since the 1940s the fires began to grow larger by the early 1990s and that has continued to happen.
Seriously, if you would take three or four days and come visit, I can show you around and you can see for yourself what impact forest management has on the watershed and on fires. It is easy to see by just comparing the private land to the public land.
If you were to come and see for yourself, you would clearly see the connection between juniper, forest management and the size of wildfires as well as the amount of damage they cause.
I can't speak to drought and fire in any area other than regions that have a similar terrain and w*****r p*****n to Eastern Oregon. For all I know you are completely right for other areas of the world, but since what I can see with my own eyes does not support what you are saying it makes me skeptical until I actually have the opportunity to see the other areas for myself.
You should seriously do the same thing before you automatically assume that what I am saying is nonsense. But once again, I have yet to see an environmentalist or g****l w*****g proponent who is willing to come and objectively compare the federal land versus the private land.