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May 19, 2014 12:09:06   #
bcheary Loc: Jacksonville, FL
 
John N wrote:
What British scandal - I'm sure there is one, if not many, but if you could be a bit more specific and detail the particular issue I might throw a few pennyworth's in.

It's my opinion that Global Warming is a naturally occuring event. Evidence exists to show this has happened many times in the past, as has the subsequent cooling. What bothers me is the speed its now happening at and this I think is largely down to our intervention. I don't think Nature can keep up.


Here is one reference and you Google for more info.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/23/breaking-news-scientist-admits-ipcc-used-fake-data-to-pressure-policy-makers/

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May 19, 2014 12:51:17   #
Gnslngr
 
TimS wrote:
Ah, good point about medicine. If you had a neurological disorder, wouldn't you look at the results and track record of the doctor you were thinking of hiring? If s/he told you that there was this great new procedure but a few minutes of searching the net yielded doubts in your mind if the survivability of that procedure? But I guess in your mind, someone who is not a doctor has no right to question the medical opinion of a doctor.

You're right, I'm not a scientist. I am an engineer - nuclear engineer, for the record - which means I make a living applying scientific principles to make life easier and more cost effective. As such, I have more advanced education than most people in this country (likely including you). But I digress. I know of no rational person who would blindly accept the medical opinion of their doctor without some explanation or alternate opinion.

I have asked a really easy question. If the IPCC models are accurate then why is there is STATISITCALLY SIGNIFICANT deviation between what they say should be the global mean temperature today and what it actually is? If a theory is correct then it should conform to observable data with only minor, statistically INSIGNIFICANT, deviations.

I see that you are incapable of providing an intelligent response...instead resorting to childish ad hominum attacks to compensate for your inability to answer a simple question. You see, someone with nothing to hide who has an honest interest in understanding the truth would not call someone (who merely asks a question about an observed discrepancy in a product) a petty name. Such is very, very childish and is virtual proof in your inability to intelligently answer the question.

Saying that the models are "really complex" is not an intelligent answer. They don't have to be perfect but they do have to be reasonably close and that means that there cannot be any statistically significant deviations that are unexplainable. At the end of the day, the models are extrapolating data to what the global temps will be in 100 years. If the first 20% of that extrapolation does not correlate AT ALL with observed data then someone needs to go back to the drawing board and fix the model so it corrates with observed data. Until such time, the results are suspect especially with a 6-8 sigma delta (which is huge).
Ah, good point about medicine. If you had a neurol... (show quote)


Unlike weather models, climate models actually do better predicting climate changes several decades into the future, during which time the short-term fluctuations average out. You have confused weather models with climate models, Mr. Engineer (which I find hard to believe given the pitiful understanding of science you exhibit).

This is good news, because with human-caused climate change, it's these long-term changes we're predominantly worried about. Unfortunately, You have a laser-like focus on the past 20 years. It's centuries we deal with. Not decades.

But I've broken a cardinal rule here: I am debating science with a non-scientist. Again, you don't know what you are talking about.

And about medicine? No, I don't trust "a few minutes of searching the web" over my physician. Only a moron would do that.

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May 19, 2014 13:36:02   #
Bobgood1 Loc: Indianapolis, IN
 
Dave Johnson wrote:
Hey BC, I think that Global Warming is really beside the point. Should we as a inhabitants of this planet continue to pour Carbon Dioxide or worse, Methane into the air we breathe without the slightest regard for its effects on us and the environment. I think we should take steps to minimize our footprint regardless of the debate over Global Warming. Don't you think that is the prudent thing to do?


The USA is the ONLY contry doing anything about it. To think that our Little footprint would cause any effect, IS arrogance on or part. The whole GW. is a political blackmail scheme and includes Enviro-Nuts.

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May 19, 2014 13:44:08   #
TimS Loc: GA
 
Gnslngr wrote:
Unlike weather models, climate models actually do better predicting climate changes several decades into the future, during which time the short-term fluctuations average out. You have confused weather models with climate models, Mr. Engineer (which I find hard to believe given the pitiful understanding of science you exhibit).

This is good news, because with human-caused climate change, it's these long-term changes we're predominantly worried about. Unfortunately, You have a laser-like focus on the past 20 years. It's centuries we deal with. Not decades.

But I've broken a cardinal rule here: I am debating science with a non-scientist. Again, you don't know what you are talking about.

And about medicine? No, I don't trust "a few minutes of searching the web" over my physician. Only a moron would do that.
Unlike weather models, climate models actually do ... (show quote)


Only a moron would accept what their doctor told them without getting a second opinion or at least researching it. I need double knee replacement. I am going to research the various knees on the market and decide for
Myself which ones I'm interested in. Then I'll talk to my doctor and find out which one he plans to use and why and why it is a better fit than what I came up with. When my doctor told me I needed bilateral knee replacement, I asked "why?" I didn't say, "ok, when can you do it?"

The same is true with climatology. As far as debating science with a non scientists, I seriously doubt you are a "scientist" and I could quite frankly care less if you believe me or not on my educational background.

If the past 20 years was a minor blip then they would NOT constitute a statistically significant deviation. They would be an INSIGNIFICANT deviation. I really don't know why that's so hard for you to grasp. Perhaps it's because you don't understand statistics. Perhaps you could google "what does statistically significant mean" to come up to speed.

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May 19, 2014 13:50:53   #
Dave Johnson Loc: Grand Rapids, Michigan
 
johnst1001a wrote:
Unfortunately Mr. Dave Johnson, it is people like you who are putting false information into the system. If you would like to put data into the system, make sure you load up on the facts, not the propaganda from Fox News, paid for by the oil barrel huggers.


I don't get this post. I would be in direct opposition with fox news as I want to reduce our carbon footprint. If you saw any of my previous posts you would also see that I do bring facts to a discussion. I don't think there is anything worse than a baseless opinion.

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May 19, 2014 13:53:44   #
idaholover Loc: Nampa ID
 
This is a walking definition of "megalomania"!

http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-calls-u-college-graduates-face-down-climate-155204832.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megalomania

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May 19, 2014 14:02:42   #
Gnslngr
 
TimS wrote:
Only a moron would accept what their doctor told them without getting a second opinion or at least researching it. I need double knee replacement. I am going to research the various knees on the market and decide for
Myself which ones I'm interested in. Then I'll talk to my doctor and find out which one he plans to use and why and why it is a better fit than what I came up with. When my doctor told me I needed bilateral knee replacement, I asked "why?" I didn't say, "ok, when can you do it?"

The same is true with climatology. As far as debating science with a non scientists, I seriously doubt you are a "scientist" and I could quite frankly care less if you believe me or not on my educational background.

If the past 20 years was a minor blip then they would NOT constitute a statistically significant deviation. They would be an INSIGNIFICANT deviation. I really don't know why that's so hard for you to grasp. Perhaps it's because you don't understand statistics. Perhaps you could google "what does statistically significant mean" to come up to speed.
Only a moron would accept what their doctor told t... (show quote)


I've already explained why it is insignificant. Perhaps you could enlighten me and give me a source that agrees with you that it is instead significant.

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May 19, 2014 14:14:49   #
chrisscholbe Loc: Kansas City, MO
 
Gnslngr wrote:
Like I said earlier:

Moron.

Name calling does NOTHING to promote your argument and reflects very BADLY on you, the name caller.

Please refrain from name calling.

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May 19, 2014 14:19:44   #
Gnslngr
 
chrisscholbe wrote:
Name calling does NOTHING to promote your argument and reflects very BADLY on you, the name caller.

Please refrain from name calling.


No.

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May 19, 2014 14:55:27   #
BboH Loc: s of 2/21, Ellicott City, MD
 
ole sarg wrote:
What blows my mind are the folks who believe some 97% of the scientists are wrong!

I'll bet you think the world is flat and is only some 5,000 years old and that the sun revolves around the earth!

Get real


Seems to me that I have read several times that the 97% you cite is a consensus of people in the scientific community but who are NOT in any of the disciplines actually studying climate.

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May 19, 2014 14:59:54   #
Gnslngr
 
BboH wrote:
Seems to me that I have read several times that the 97% you cite is a consensus of people in the scientific community but who are NOT in any of the disciplines actually studying climate.


Right you are! Among climatologists it isn't 97%.

It's 100%.

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May 19, 2014 15:12:52   #
Ka2azman Loc: Tucson, Az
 
ole sarg wrote:
What blows my mind are the folks who believe some 97% of the scientists are wrong!

I'll bet you think the world is flat and is only some 5,000 years old and that the sun revolves around the earth!

Get real


At one time 100% of the scientist believed that the world was flat. Also 100% of the scientist believed the earth was the center of the universe. So what does, what you say of 97% of the scientist prove?

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May 19, 2014 15:26:44   #
silver Loc: Santa Monica Ca.
 
bcheary wrote:
http://politicaloutcast.com/2014/05/yet-another-peer-reviewed-cover-global-warming/

The scientists still disagree amongst themselves but the liberals still hang on to Al Gore's coat tails when almost all of the crap he espoused in his "An inconvenient truth" has been scientifically debunked. The British scandal is a classical example. Fudged figures and bowing to political pressures. And would you really believe anything that came out Obummer's mouth? :hunf:


So tell me, which scientists disagree?

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May 19, 2014 16:00:10   #
gym Loc: Athens, Georgia
 
ole sarg wrote:
What blows my mind are the folks who believe some 97% of the scientists are wrong!

I'll bet you think the world is flat and is only some 5,000 years old and that the sun revolves around the earth!

Get real


Well......... at one time a hundred percent of the scientists believed that the world was flat. They were wrong.

And many of the dwindling number of scientists who push man-caused global warming know they are wrong now. But they push just the same. It's become a leftist political agenda and NOTHING will deter them from promoting this hogwash.

They even went so far as to collude to falsify data when the data they were getting wasn't confirming their pre-ordained hypothesis.

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May 19, 2014 16:58:11   #
Trondi
 
TimS wrote:
We don't need to have an argument about quantum mechanics because the university professors are having a good enough time debating and researching it on their own. Quantum mechanics is an ever-evolving field with new research revising current theories every year. But I'm sure you already knew that, right?


Oh no Tim don't prove the 'Engineers stereotype' to be right! The one that says that if things are nearly, roughly right, well then that will have to do! :) FYI the quantum theory is the most successful scientific theory in existence. It has been proved right by peer reviewed experiment to better than one part in 10 billion.

Your original questions about GW were spot on correct! They were real thorns in the sides of GW/GC scientists working on models 20 years ago. Fortunately many scientists have made significant progress in formulating and testing hypotheses that have helped improve the current models, many of which now do include allowances for the last 20 years reduction in rate of warming.

You might find this latest surface temperature report summary from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (one of the top three data gatherers in the world) of interest. It helps put this 'slowdown' in perspective - even for layman!

Global Temperature Update Through 2013
James Hansen, Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy
Summary. Global surface temperature in 2013 was +0.6°C (~1.1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 base period average, thus the seventh warmest year in the GISS analysis. The rate of global warming is slower in the past decade than in the prior three decades. Slower growth of net climate forcings and cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean both contribute to the slower warming rate, with the latter probably the more important effect. The tropical Pacific cooling is probably unforced variability, at least in large part. The trend toward an increased frequency of extreme hot summer anomalies over land areas has continued despite the Pacific Ocean cooling. The “bell curves” for observed temperature anomalies show that, because of larger unforced variability in winter, it is more difficult in winter than in summer to recognize the effect of global warming on the occurrence of extreme warm or cold seasons. It appears that there is substantial likelihood of an El Niño beginning in 2014, and as a result a probable record global temperature in 2014 or 2015.
21 January 2014


But remember this is just the surface temperatures! High atmospheres temps and deep sea temps also need factoring in for the nett effect. It is a fascinating area for research and one that it appears is fascinating for many on UH too ;)

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