TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

You’re missing facts, one of which is that without electrical power, the rudder can’t be moved, and the vessel’s course is then affected by the current and especially the windage. Stacked high with cargo, the vessel is essentially a huge sail (perhaps 175,000 sq ft), and only a few Knots of wind can exert a huge force.

As for your comment about slowing down, they were moving at a very reasonable speed - enough to maintain steerageway, but once power was lost, they had no way to effect the speed or course of the vessel nor could they reverse the engines. They did try a list ditch effort by dropping the anchor, but the mass of the vessel is so large that while it may have slowed it slightly, it could not stop it. Non mariners don’t appreciate the tremendous effect current and windage can have on a vessel.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

I'm missing a lot of things.
Not discussing the wind as it happened at dead of the night which normally have still air, but not saying it was not a factor. It could easilly have been.
Just discussing and presenting my views, some of which are contrary to others views.

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

It seems to me that you haven’t boated or sailed in coastal waters. On an inland lake, the winds do die down at night, but these are coastal waters.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

I grew up in the Philippines. We are islanders.

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

“ Without propulsion or tugboats, a ship this size is nearly impossible to stop.

The emergency generator does not connect to propulsion but should support steering and navigation systems but the ships heading appears to have been pushed off course by the wind directly into the support column.

Ships are not required to have tugboat escorts when passing under the Francis Scott Key Bridge so they have limited ability to slow down on their own when they lose power and can not put the propeller into reverse.

According to past photos, she is equipped with a bow thruster. However, these are not typically connected to emergency power systems. Even if it were engaged, bow thrusters are designed for slow-speed maneuvers and have a limited ability to push the bow into the wind when the ship’s speed exceeds 5 knots.”

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

And are you an experienced boater or sailer logging time sailing at night in coastal waters?

dustie Loc: Nose to the grindstone

Looking back at recorded conditions in the harbor for the time of the crash, it's reported the wind speed was a whopping 6 miles per hour.
I dunno, the windbags should not have had the wind machines running at night....liable to blow Woodsy Owl out of the tree if he tries to hang on.

Then, this morning, there was some litter and chaff caught on the guardrail beside a road where I was driving just as the first hints of dawn weakly lined the eastern sky this morning.
There was so little traffic, I stopped to gather up the stuff, thinking that maybe it was actually some important stuff another driver had lost.

When I took the time to look through it a few minutes ago, so I'd know if it was all useless trash, or something of use to someone else, I found a notepad that may be a hint of what could be, at some point, reported in the news.
______________________________

This is the notes written on that pad:

Preliminary Findings of the Damaging Dali Instigators

Dagwood hired Charlie Brown to train Mr Dithers how to spin the earth while Lucy held the South Pole and the Cat in the Hat was put in charge of training naval mariners and all the Coast Guard, harbor pilots, merchant marine and shipbuilders in the wonderland of Oz.

Snoopy just hung his head over the edge of the North Pole and dreamed of Woodstock delivering serious whoop a** on the Red Baron, and for the most auspicious occasion, the masses solemnly frolicked in the UHH vaping vapors and giggle water.

scallihan Loc: Tigard, OR

The pilot was on board, directing the captain. But the ship lost power. Crew was able to radio about it just before they went dark, so the bridge could be closed. There have been interviews with people who were last to cross safely and those who were stopped in time.

catskinner Loc: Middle Kansas

Question: Does this ship have 2 propellers or one. Also I'm guessing if two, it has a engine for each propeller. If 2, then they trying to re start the engines, one started, putting out all the Black smoke, and if so that might have been the engine on left side and stated for a little bit, could explain why it made a quick right turn into the bridge anchor. Just a though that I have. catskinner

dustie Loc: Nose to the grindstone

One prime mover, one propeller, very common on vessels that size and category.

Looking at the publicly available videos of the movement leading up to the resulting crash, in all their weaknesses due to camera distance, available lighting, camera viewing angle, etc, there is something else that arises as a question, and I keep genuinely hoping can be determined and publicly reported.

Just going by the low level of being able to determine detail in those videos, it appears to me that ship made a more rapid course change than would be expected possible by use of rudder control, especially in those conditions. After there was an initial course change, the ship does not appear to continue in a turn, but takes a rather straight course in the new direction.
Now, if that course change is more rapid than the rudder can produce, I am highly interested in knowing if it can and will be determined if there was any contact with the bottom or an unknown obstruction on the bottom that deflected the ship to the side that way.

Wind above the water surface? ........well, maybe.......but, still what appears to be a too rapid course change. If the online places that report conditions there are correct there was a six mile per hour breeze at the time of the incident.
The videos don't seem to show more than a rather gentle ripple on the water surface.......six mph seems reasonable.

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

Yep, just for fun calculated the force of a 6mph wind against a vessel this size/loaded directly abeam, and it’s not trivial (26,600 Newtons), BUT we don’t know the wind direction or currents at this location. Anyone here a professional mariner that’s sailed these waters?

dustie Loc: Nose to the grindstone

👍

A lot of variables in force at the same time......time and space that was far too short to execute actions that might allow going for a soft, controlled landing.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

Your still thinking it is not possible when I already gave information that I had lived in an island nation. 7,641 islands to be exact. I (me and 2 other friends) built our first boat when I was in High school. We capsized, sank and rebuilt it too. Good & fun memories

They are inland by the way, 250km from open waters and 140+km distance overland.

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

Understand, but building and sinking a small boat doesn’t necessarily qualify you as an experienced mariner. What was being questioned were some of your comments. Perhaps the Philippines are different, but on the east coast of North America, where the accident occurred, the wind does blow at night - note that the report was 6 MPH at the time of the collision. That may seem trivial if you're not a sailor, but when you have 175,000 sq ft of surface area to blow against, it can definitely change a vessel’s course.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

I can assure you, I know my way around. If your definition of an experienced mariner is Only about being a Master of big ships, then we can only agree to disagree.

Regarding the wind, I'm an Aircraft Mechanic graduate and an Aeronautical Engineering undergraduate. Not only boats, I've repaired, built and designed an aircraft as well.
Rocketry was a hobby, even mixing my own solid fuel, since we do not have estes in our deprived country

You can say I know the wind a little , thus never disregard it, even if I can not accurately predict weather or not it will be there. It won't be called weather if we can.

If you readback, I said " I do not think the wind was not that strong on that night to veer the ship suddenly to the pillar if that is what happened."
The point there is the sudden course change just seconds to impact.

Ships do not necessarily gets blown about by the wind. Sailboats won't tack if that is true. Since the ship is floating on water, its flow has a stronger and more immediate effect on the tracking of a vessel than the breeze. Granted some large ships do not have a Keel to resist side forces, they are still designed more to move forward, than sideways. What we have to consider is the ratio of sail area to mass & the wetted plane. Aside from drag, the wind will have to move away a volume of water, the same weight of the ship against the wetted plane perpendicular to its force. The heavier the ship and deeper the draft, the more it will resist and the less likely will it be pushed.

In retrospect, did say I am missing many factors. After all, I was discussing the event when the news was all new and there were very few details available.