JD750 wrote:
You are normally a positive thinking person but that is a negative thought.
The camera market is shrinking. So companies have to scale back and put precious development resources where they will most likely return profits.
However there is still demand for DSLRs so companies will continue to sell them. It’s not hard to integrate an updated sensor into an existing body so we might see it. Time will tell.
Regardless I stand by my statement that Mirrorless cameras are not driving sensor tech. The real driver is the “sell” phone market. Traditional camera manufacturers are the welcome recipients of cell phone development $ going into improved sensor tech.
You are normally a positive thinking person but th... (
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There’s no actual *demand* for SLRs. Thaz why no one is building them. They could disappear yesterday or last week and most buyers will buy whatever else becomes available instead.
Will die hard SLR buyers turn to Pentax ? Acoarst not. Who would trust a brand thaz numb enuf to keep building SLRs ! Behind their transparent facades, even the diehards actually realize it’s ended.
Here on uhh there will be a bit of sack cloth and ashes, but to no actual effect. Marketing knows that this place and others like it are all talk and no action.
The talk of the imminent demise of DSLRs is premature if you look at sales figures from Japan where middle and low end DSLRs still sell, even though in reduced numbers.
The share of the market holding its own and increasing shares is the mirrorless market, so for sure that is where major makers will concentrate their resources ,their best tech, and most of their remaining chips.
There will still be a very select few middle-ground and lower-end DSLRs released from the major makers, as those buyers are loyal to the gear most of them started with. Makers will grab at whatever DSLR camera and lens sales they can get
What you won't ever see again is any new high-end pro DSLRs being released. Nikon with the Z9, Canon with its R3 have signaled a final end to any new high-end pro DSLRs. Sony with its A9, A9II and A1 led the way and pushed that market.
Already most major wire news services have ditched their DSLRs and moved to top-end mirrorless gear for so many good reasons and advantages (debated in UHH to exhaustion, lol).
Diehard DSLR lovers and users will continue to use them until there are no more parts to fix them.
For pros like myself that have moved on from DSLRs, there is no turning back, nor would we ever want to go back to old tech. Sure we made great shots with DSLRs when they were king and the only game in town.
If you chart the history of the development and refinement of the modern digital sensor you will find that the mirrorless revolution has sparked and driven these advancements. If you think otherwise you are just incorrect.
The biggest digital sensor maker in the world is Sony by far, both for cellphones and for cameras, and Sony has been pushing sensor advancements to sell its mirrorless cameras , and the competition has been racing to catch up for their cameras, with many (save Canon) just buying these Sony sensors from less than 1" to medium format size to put in their branded cameras, including makers like Fuji, Hasselblad and others.
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The Z9 will be a winner for Nikon and the industry as a whole. Nikon folks will finally have a true competitor to the best from Sony and Canon. There is no business survival scenario by going backwards to relying on shrinking DSLR sales.
Cheers
gwilliams6 wrote:
The talk of the imminent demise of DSLRs is premature if you look at sales figures from Japan where middle and low end DSLRs still sell, even though in reduced numbers.
The share of the market holding its own and increasing shares is the mirrorless market, so for sure that is where major makers will concentrate their resources ,their best tech, and most of their remaining chips.
There will still be a very select few middle-ground and lower-end DSLRs released from the major makers, as those buyers are loyal to the gear most of them started with. Makers will grab at whatever DSLR camera and lens sales they can get
What you won't ever see again is any new high-end pro DSLRs being released. Nikon with the Z9, Canon with its R3 have signaled a final end to any new high-end pro DSLRs. Sony with its A9, A9II and A1 led the way and pushed that market.
Already most major wire news services have ditched their DSLRs and moved to top-end mirrorless gear for so many good reasons and advantages (debated in UHH to exhaustion, lol).
Diehard DSLR lovers and users will continue to use them until there are no more parts to fix them.
For pros like myself that have moved on from DSLRs, there is no turning back, nor would we ever want to go back to old tech. Sure we made great shots with DSLRs when they were king and the only game in town.
If you chart the history of the development and refinement of the modern digital sensor you will find that the mirrorless revolution has sparked and driven these advancements. If you think otherwise you are just incorrect.
The biggest digital sensor maker in the world is Sony by far, both for cellphones and for cameras, and Sony has been pushing sensor advancements to sell its mirrorless cameras , and the competition has been racing to catch up for their cameras, with many (save Canon) just buying these Sony sensors from less than 1" to medium format size to put in their branded cameras, including makers like Fuji, Hasselblad and others.
.
The Z9 will be a winner for Nikon and the industry as a whole. Nikon folks will finally have a true competitor to the best from Sony and Canon. There is no business survival scenario by going backwards to relying on shrinking DSLR sales.
Cheers
The talk of the imminent demise of DSLRs is premat... (
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Long Version: What gw6 said above.
Short Version: It’s all over but the crying.
There will never be a better DSLR than those you can still buy today.
User ID wrote:
There’s no actual *demand* for SLRs. Thaz why no one is building them. They could disappear yesterday or last week and most buyers will buy whatever else becomes available instead.
Will die hard SLR buyers turn to Pentax ? Acoarst not. Who would trust a brand thaz numb enuf to keep building SLRs ! Behind their transparent facades, even the diehards actually realize it’s ended.
Here on uhh there will be a bit of sack cloth and ashes, but to no actual effect. Marketing knows that this place and others like it are all talk and no action.
There’s no actual *demand* for SLRs. Thaz why no o... (
show quote)
"Always difficult (to predict) the future, things constantly in motion".
Myself, I certainly have no desire to buy a DSLR I lost that urge years ago. I still use mine occasionally but it seems crude to me now. However there are those who prefer the optical viewfinder.
One thing we know, the high performance camera market is still shrinking. Companies are competing for fewer buyers. A few of those fewer buyers will want DSLRs. Companies are trying to obtain competitive advantage by developing new products. However if a company can sell an existing product that is pure profit, without the developmental overhead. So long as people buy them companies will sell DSLRs.
If nobody buys them, if demand is zero as you state, then they will quickly disappear from the market. We may be headed there but I don't think we are there just yet. Time will tell. And that reminds me, I need to order some more film. ;)
JD750 wrote:
"Always difficult (to predict) the future, things constantly in motion".
Myself, I certainly have no desire to buy a DSLR I lost that urge years ago. I still use mine occasionally but it seems crude to me now. However there are those who prefer the optical viewfinder.
One thing we know, the high performance camera market is still shrinking. Companies are competing for fewer buyers. A few of those fewer buyers will want DSLRs. Companies are trying to obtain competitive advantage by developing new products. However if a company can sell an existing product that is pure profit, without the developmental overhead. So long as people buy them companies will sell DSLRs.
If nobody buys them, if demand is zero as you state, then they will quickly disappear from the market. We may be headed there but I don't think we are there just yet. Time will tell. And that reminds me, I need to order some more film. ;)
"Always difficult (to predict) the future, th... (
show quote)
No one wants to be Kodak this time around ...
CHG_CANON wrote:
There will never be a better DSLR than those you can still buy today.
Yup they are always the latest and greatest forever.
JD750 wrote:
"Always difficult (to predict) the future, things constantly in motion".
Myself, I certainly have no desire to buy a DSLR I lost that urge years ago. I still use mine occasionally but it seems crude to me now. However there are those who prefer the optical viewfinder.
One thing we know, the high performance camera market is still shrinking. Companies are competing for fewer buyers. A few of those fewer buyers will want DSLRs. Companies are trying to obtain competitive advantage by developing new products. However if a company can sell an existing product that is pure profit, without the developmental overhead. So long as people buy them companies will sell DSLRs.
If nobody buys them, if demand is zero as you state, then they will quickly disappear from the market. We may be headed there but I don't think we are there just yet. Time will tell. And that reminds me, I need to order some more film. ;)
"Always difficult (to predict) the future, th... (
show quote)
Things are built in fairly large batches based on predictions of demand. So a grossly wrong prediction leaves a batch unsold, but still in the “live” inventory catalog until excess inventory gradually sells off at clearance pricing. So things will seldom abruptly vanish from the marketplace.
Oddly enuf, if you’re waiting for lower prices on the Z7II, that *could* mean waiting for the pile of unsold D850s to dwindle. IOW we might not see $2400 Z7IIs until we see $1900 D850s. One hand washes the other.
User ID wrote:
Things are built in fairly large batches based on predictions of demand. So a grossly wrong prediction leaves a batch unsold, but still in the “live” inventory catalog until excess inventory gradually sells off at clearance pricing. So things will seldom abruptly vanish from the marketplace.
Oddly enuf, if you’re waiting for lower prices on the Z7II, that *could* mean waiting for the pile of unsold D850s to dwindle. IOW we might not see $2400 Z7IIs until we see $1900 D850s. One hand washes the other.
Things are built in fairly large batches based on ... (
show quote)
Interesting thought about the prices. Could be. However I would guess the competition's pricing will have a strong effect.
JD750 wrote:
Interesting thought about the prices. Could be. However I would guess the competition's pricing will have a strong effect.
Yes. But all the competitors are all stuck on the same hamster wheel !
.
JIM H
Loc: Broad Channel NY
Its like a horse race that never ends right now Sony is in the lead with Nikon coming up on the outside and Canon a half a length behind. but they never get to the finish line. What you buy today will be obsolete the moment you open the box.
JIM H wrote:
Its like a horse race that never ends right now Sony is in the lead with Nikon coming up on the outside and Canon a half a length behind. but they never get to the finish line. What you buy today will be obsolete the moment you open the box.
No hey problemo !
Yet ironically resale value is enhanced a bit if you keep the box in good shape ... presumably so the next owner can also experience that same “tragic moment”. All about the feeling, I spoze. It’s kinda Shakespearian in that way.
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