baron_silverton wrote:
The market is moving away from smaller sensors to full frame and why wouldn't it. There is more distinction between a cell phone and a full frame than there is between cell phones and smaller sensors - as cell phones get better the need for cameras in general diminishes but full frame will be the last to go - not the first.
Full frame is not going to die. It will probably never die until optical cameras are replaced with some other future "magical" technology. But I suspect it will not be "king of the hill" down the road. Sensor technology is changing. The five year old 4/3rds sensor designs are going to start being replaced this year. I was only hoping for a 25mp sensor, but now it appears it will be a 33mp new technology sensor. And there may be a 42mp in the further future. And Olympus has already stated that the pro lenses are good up to a 100mp sensor. Will a 33mp sensor make 4/3rds "king of the hill"? No. But take a look at what is changing in the market. I do not remember the brand, but the manufacturer's comment was that the body was small and light "like a 4/3rds body" while having a full frame sensor. The only remaining problem is now in the lens' sizes and weights.
The Sony FE 600 f4 GM OSS is 6.44" X 17.68", 6.7#, and $12,998. The Canon RF 600 f4 IS USM is 6.6" X 18.6", 6.8#, and $12,999. The Nikon 600 f4E AF-S Nikkor FL ED VR is 6.54" X 17", 8.4#, and $12,296.95. The Olympus ED 300 f4 IS Pro IS 3.64" X 8.94", 3.25#, and $2,749. These four lenses are all sharp 4.1° lenses. But which ones are the smallest, most handholdable, and the most affordable? Yes, there is a difference in depth of field between full frames and 4/3rds lenses. Even as expensive the Olympus lens is, most people cannot afford a 4.1° lens except for the Olympus lens. Can those full frame lenses be made half the size, half the weight, and still be a 300 f4 lens? No. But the APS-C could offer a system that would be smaller, lighter, and more affordable without losing all the sometimes desired narrow depth of field and high ISO of full frame. There are no 400 f4 APS-C lenses. The closest lenses are 300 f8 reflex lenses and a zoom that goes to 350. The market is wide open for Nikon's taking right now (or any smart thinking company). Plus, less material cost. The manufacturers could be offering all of us a system more powerful than 4/3rds yet not all the size, weight, and cost of full frame. My guess Nikon will miss this opportunity and Sony will not.
There will be less and less amateurs and enthusiasts that will be willing to save and/or spend $13K for a pro lens if and when there are cheaper alternatives. And the pro level sales alone will probably not totally support keeping a pro level lens' cost from going up further in cost. Further evidence of this is: one can buy any one of the full frame 600 f4 lenses now without much delay, but one has to wait "in line" for a new Olympus 150-400 f4.5 lens until sometime between July and December of next year to get one of the $7,500 lenses. This shows that the amateurs and enthusiasts, along with some pros, are willing to save and spend the money even in the light of more depth of field and more noise at higher ISO just to get those long telephoto lengths. They are not will to spend the extra $6K for a full frame lens with less reach. This is part of the reason that the "crown" will eventually move from full frame to APS-C. 4/3rds will benefit from better sensors, but they will not be made "king of the hill".