Herd Immunity achievable?
Apr 19, 2020 12:05:04 #
Haenzel
Loc: South Holland, The Netherlands
John_F wrote:
Five foot distance rule ??? Thought is was 6 feet social distancing. Being 1/2 Norwegian I practice 10 feet.
That's typical for ("one") Europe. We all have different rules!
Apr 19, 2020 12:05:05 #
cochese wrote:
The real problem becomes those that listen to the predator and go out mobbing around then cause a whole new outbreak overwhelming the medical communtity.
On another touchier note I say let the predators' fans go out and mob about, it will certainly help the idea of getting the predator out of the way.
On another touchier note I say let the predators' fans go out and mob about, it will certainly help the idea of getting the predator out of the way.
Apr 19, 2020 13:35:43 #
Los-Angeles-Shooter
Loc: Los Angeles
The concept of 'herd immunity' is largely a fraud, created to push excessive and sometimes harmful vaccinations. Purpose? Drug industry profits.
Apr 19, 2020 13:50:28 #
Los-Angeles-Shooter wrote:
The concept of 'herd immunity' is largely a fraud, created to push excessive and sometimes harmful vaccinations. Purpose? Drug industry profits.
Actually it's quite sound scientifically. The "sometimes harmful" part is largely trollish FUD (no--no vaccine is absolutely safe, but statistically they are far better than Sars-CoV-2).
We don't know how long it will take to develop a vaccine. The good figures (12-18 months) are averages of past experience, not a hard reality in this case. It might be 3 months, it might be years. It might be that we take a new COVID-19 shot every year. Who knows?
Both I and my loved ones are susceptible. I want my lungs to last the rest of my life at full function. I'm comfortable waiting. My physical well-being is more important.
Wait until someone you really care for dies from COVID-19 after coming back from one of those protests...
Apr 19, 2020 14:11:02 #
Haenzel wrote:
In order to defeat the Corona virus it's calculate... (show quote)
For COVID, with an R0 in the neighborhood of 2.5, you need at least 70% of the population to be immune for herd immunity to work. Either 70% of the people get the disease, or somebody develops a vaccine. The first option is very expensive: 320 million people in the US X 0.7 = 224 million infected X 4% death rate = 9 million dead people. That doesn't count the number of people disabled due to organ damage.
Also, there is some uncertainty that infection confers immunity. There seems to be a growing number of cases of people who have had the disease, recovered, and then have become reinfected.
Given that we have no way to treat it, and a vaccine is at least 18 months out (but could be longer), it will be more than just a summer that we'll all be practicing social distancing.
Apr 19, 2020 14:21:05 #
Haenzel wrote:
In order to defeat the Corona virus it's calculate... (show quote)
I think your strategy is very wise. The mitigation strategies are only designed to slow the spread to avoid exceeding hospitalization capacity, not to eradicate the virus as some expect. Slowing the spread just means that the epidemic will last longer but those that get sick will get medical help. So until we slowly get to the 60% herd immunity or a viable treatment and finally a vaccine, the vulnerable need to continue to take precautions. I'll be doing the same as you.
Just a thought on the Netherlands. One possible reason that the infiltration of covid is slow in the Netherlands is that they are practicing good social distancing and are staying at home. From the BBC the Hauge, "One survey suggested 99% of people kept their distance and 93% stayed at home as much as possible". They have shut down business requiring physical contact including their schools, but others stayed open. Having worked in Netherland in the past, the dutch are well disciplined and seem to be following very common sense rules.
Stay safe.
Apr 19, 2020 14:23:50 #
Los-Angeles-Shooter wrote:
The concept of 'herd immunity' is largely a fraud, created to push excessive and sometimes harmful vaccinations. Purpose? Drug industry profits.
True.
Apr 19, 2020 14:31:29 #
PHM
Loc: Foxborough, MA.
Given enough time, herd immunity will be achieved, vaccine or no vaccine. That is an unavoidable fact.
Apr 19, 2020 14:36:44 #
PHM
Loc: Foxborough, MA.
Given enough time, herd immunity will be achieved, vaccine or no vaccine. That is an unavoidable fact.
Apr 19, 2020 14:50:38 #
David Martin
Loc: Cary, NC
Los-Angeles-Shooter wrote:
The concept of 'herd immunity' is largely a fraud
In what respect is the concept a fraud?
Aside from your suspicion for why the concept is pushed by healthcare and pharma.
Do you think that herd immunity does not exist? that it's a myth? or that it is not effective?
Apr 19, 2020 14:52:01 #
Haenzel
Loc: South Holland, The Netherlands
SalvageDiver wrote:
I think your strategy is very wise. The mitigatio... (show quote)
Thanks...
It's amazing to see how people adapt. There is a feeling "we're all in the same boat, let's make the best out of it.." The government anticipated that if the rules would be too strict and forced upon, people wouldn't sit it out. It needs to be seen whether people remain disciplined. So far so good!
Yesterday an interesting item on dutch tv. Maurice de Hond, a Social Geographer, analyzed a lot of data, looking for matching circumstances in the areas where large break outs of Corona took place. He noticed that the weather played a major role. A specific humidity lower than 6g/kg is a condition where the miniscule particals of the virus, spread by sneezing, coughing, shouting or singing can travel a greater distance. Humidity breaks down the cell wall, killing the virus. That could not take place because of the dry air.
Wether this is true, I don't know. I'm not an expert. Looking at the belt of major outbreaks on the map, the weather resembles the larger outbreaks.
Apr 19, 2020 14:53:03 #
PHM wrote:
Given enough time, herd immunity will be achieved, vaccine or no vaccine. That is an unavoidable fact.
As I understand : herd immunity has nothing to do with a vaccine. It is the concept of allowing people to become infected, after which the survivors are immune. The downside is many will die first. Once the herd becomes large enough, there will be no further outbreaks and the virus will disappear.
Apr 19, 2020 15:19:35 #
boberic wrote:
As has been said by many the cure may be worse tha... (show quote)
Crazy talk my friend…crazy talk. We can't expect either side to actually be interested in balance about anything…but unfortunately that's the way that politics has become in the past 30 or 40 years. I remember when reaching across the aisle was considered statesmanlike and when the House or Senate members of the two parties compromised to get a bill that neither liked completely but had things for both sides could get passed. I remember when competence for a judicial or cabinet nominee was the prime consideration and not political affiliation. I remember when Justice Ginsburg's nominator to SCOTUS was approved 96-3…because the other side realized that despite her political affiliation she was qualified for the job.
Not any more though…I'm afraid those days are long past and the chief aims of both parties are to make the other side look bad and not to give the other side anything while demanding that they give you everything you want.
Apr 19, 2020 16:11:45 #
David Martin
Loc: Cary, NC
Delderby wrote:
As I understand : herd immunity has nothing to do with a vaccine. It is the concept of allowing people to become infected, after which the survivors are immune. The downside is many will die first. Once the herd becomes large enough, there will be no further outbreaks and the virus will disappear.
Herd immunity = the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, whether through vaccination or having survived the infection. Vaccination is a means of achieving herd immunity rapidly while preventing infection and thus preventing deaths.
Apr 19, 2020 17:46:13 #
nadelewitz
Loc: Ithaca NY
Theoretically, herd immunity can happen. So can herd infection and death.
Hope for the first, or protect against the second.
Hope for the first, or protect against the second.
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