htbrown Loc: San Francisco Bay Area

A few points:
1) COVID is not a flu. Comparisons between the flu and COVID may or may not be appropriate
2) Flu has a death rate of about 0.1%. Tens of thousands die every year because millions are infected.
3) The death rate for COVID is not well characterized, but is estimated at 1% to 4%
4) We have vaccines to limit flu infection, but none for COVID. Without appropriate response, it is estimated that 30% to 70% of the population could become infected.
5) Flu kills thousands every year because it is well-embedded in the population. The point of early intervention is to keep COVID from becoming similarly embedded.
6) That so few have died in the USA only means we're in the early part of the exponential curve. It does not mean we won't get many more. In fact, it is likely we will get many more.

A quick calculation. 250 million residents of the USA X 30% infected X 1% death rate = 750,000 deaths. We need a stronger response than we have seen so far.

CaptainBobBrown

Actually a bit of "panicky behavior" is exactly what we need at this time because without it people will tend to continue old habits such as shaking hands, attending mass gatherings, ignoring extra measures for preventing spread of the disease through contact with frequently touched surfaces like door handles in public places, etc.

Unlike "normal" influenza Covid-19 affects elderly and those with compromised immune systems disproportionately so there's something about it's mode of infection and cell damage we don't yet know...among many other things. This has forced me to cancel two photography expeditions planned for this year after much careful thought but we can all only hope that in future retrospect this was "panicky behavior".

A historical note: the Spanish Flu influenza killed so many in 1918-19 in large part due to extreme contagion brought on by WWI battlefield conditions of cold, wet, and crowding followed by crowding of young men being returned on crowded ships at the end of the war. At least the world is a bit more aware of that danger and shutting down airplane travel sooner because we all know about the extreme crowding on "modern" commercial airlines which is a principal vector of the disease around the world. How ironic though that ships have again been highlighted in the news as being vectors of the disease.

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Thank you ICN35. I appreciate it.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Your points are noted htbrown. If you were president, what would you say constitutes a "stronger response" than what the USA is already implementing?

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

CaptainBobBrown, if those activities are your idea of "panicky behavior", I totally agree with it. Though I would refer to them as prudent preventive measures. Panicky behavior is mindless behavior - reactionary without rational thought. Americans, as a whole, seldom panic over anything. It isn't in our nature to panic, though under the right circumstances, could panic. It isn't something we need our leaders and experts to cause as the unintended consequences could easily be devastating.

Daryl

htbrown Loc: San Francisco Bay Area

I am not an expert in the field. However, if I were placed in that unenviable position, I would:
1) Not have gutted our pandemic response team and cut funding for the CDC
2) Listen to what the experts say
3) Widen testing dramatically, the way they did in South Korea. In South Korea they were able to contain COVID by aggressive testing and appropriate handling of those infected. Contrast that to Italy where testing was curtailed for fear of its impact on tourism. Now the whole country is locked down.
4) Worry more about how this will affect most Americans and less about how it will affect the stock market and shale oil producers. I think it's noteworthy that the administration's point man for talking to the Speaker of the House about a coordinated response is the Treasury secretary. It tells you what this administrations priorities are.

But now I've veered into politics, about which I am also no expert, so I'll shut up.

yssirk123 Loc: New Jersey

Somewhat coincidental that China's only Level 4 microbiology lab is located in Wuhan. Can't draw any conclusions, but it does make me wonder.

Bill_R Loc: Southeastern Wisconsin

Agreed.

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Great ideas htbrown. Here is what I know regarding your suggestions. Food for thought.

1) It’s thus true that the Trump administration axed the executive branch team responsible for coordinating a response to a pandemic and did not replace it, eliminating Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer’s position and reassigning others, although John Bolton was the executive at the top of the National Security Council chain of command at the time and did the firing. It has been reported that President “Trump also cut funding for the CDC, forcing the CDC to cancel its efforts to help countries prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics in 39 of 49 countries in 2018 - not the USA budget. Should we taxpayers be paying for research and training, and supplies, and administration in other countries? I think not, so for me, this was a good decision and what he was elected to do - reduce the size and cost or our government.

In addition, the elimination of this executive team did not prevent us from mounting preparedness efforts for this threat, and the president appointed an executive team, composed of medical experts, to lead our efforts within two months of the outbreak in China.

2) The difficulty here is which "experts" to listen to and heed their advice and suggestions. With the "experts" advice and recommendations all over the map, which ones are correct? Most of they hype regarding who was/is correct, and whose recommendations should be implemented, seem to revolve around politics. We should not fault anyone for listening to the "experts" and making up their own minds regarding what actions to take and when.

3) Much of the issue with testing involves the lab capacity for conducting the tests. When you have limited resources, and many priorities, which priority do you choose? And then, how do you respond when the other priorities complain that they are being ignored? For example, flu testing versus COVID-19 testing? If all our resources were prioritized to addressing OCVID-19, and the numbers of deaths and infections due to flu continued to increase, would you be blamed for the flu deaths, especially those that ere children and babies? These are difficult decisions to make for any leader.

4) Consider what would happen to America and the world should our economy fail? I hear folks complain about the concerns over the stock market, but did you remember that the vast majority of Americans have their retirement savings in the stock market? What happens to their future life during retirement when they have nothing left because of the stock market crash? If our economy fails, how do we pay for anything related to COVID-19 response? Keeping the economy strong is a major responsibility of our government leaders. Each citizen, as well as the world, depends upon it.

Daryl

danbir1 Loc: North Potomac, MD

Yes, nobody ever puts things in perspective, the news hungry media will assure us of that.

PGHphoto Loc: Pittsburgh, PA

Can you site actual information and support it with facts ? Both sides are quick to make statements as you have without actual data. For example - what was the system that the president "got rid of" ? and how does it affect the current situation ? Luckily daryls saved you the trouble and sited actual information rather than talking points.

The bottom line is - from CDC - on average the impacts of COVID-19 for individuals are less intense than the flu. Most younger people with infections have little to no physical evidence of an infection. The largest population which had or have the virus and experience symptoms are unreported so the mortality rates appear inflated at 2% or 3%.

This "pandemic" is mainly created by the media which is always looking for the next crisis to grab readers. All the speculation of how bad it will get is just that - speculation. Certainly, we should all take precautions and the advice to wash hands and avoid facial contact in general are best practice items. But based on current information and counts, the impacts are currently trending below the latest flu strains.

The sky it not falling - no matter how much the media has lached onto COVID-19 as the crisis du-jour.

bodiebill

dpullum
Any proof of Obama plan to deal with pandemics???
All that I recall is "open borders".
Stop the politicization of a deadly disease!!

htbrown Loc: San Francisco Bay Area

This is one reason I wanted to stay away from the political aspects of this. I will however, respond to your points, and then I'll sign off.
1) Assembling an expert team from scratch is not as effortless as some have claimed. At the very least, there is time lost organizing when the team could be responding. Having teams working in places where new diseases might emerge can slow or prevent those new diseases from arriving in the US, so helping those countries helps us as well.
2) Medical experts are remarkably consistent in their advice about COVID. To say that experts are all over the map may be true, but medical experts are not.
3) If South Korea can test a hundred thousand people within a few weeks of a novel disease outbreak, why cannot the US? I have heard a great many explanations for this, none of them edifying.
4) Will the damage to our economy be less if we contain COVID sooner rather than later? Concern about the economy should not prevent us from addressing the hazard that threatens our economy.

RonBoyd

"People should be taking precautions based on the facts, not on the divergent left-right narratives. Some people are irrational and will over- or under-react no matter what, even if they are only over or under-reacting based on the facts. But it is especially dangerous in this case if people under-react based on a particular widespread partisan narrative."

https://www.adfontesmedia.com/the-polarization-of-coronavirus-stories-how-our-news-ecosystem-can-make-the-non-political-become-political/?v=402f03a963ba

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

That is so true danbir1. The media has to make a profit to stay in business and hype builds curiosity and that breeds customers and high advertising fees. You cannot blame them much for what they do then.

Daryl