In addition to what I posted earlier, I would say that it is an individual decision based upon how much time you wish to devote and the learning curve for the various software packages.

I have other interest and hobbies besides photography which I just basically dabble in the pursuit of doing something creative during the long and dreary winters. I still have pictures on two cameras that I have not downloaded since last fall.

For me, I can do everything I need to do with the GIMP and or Affinity Photo. I also dabble around with some of the AKVIS software for sketches and photo to water color or painting.

Some buy very expensive cameras believing that that is the key to success and some buy the most professional quality software thinking that is the key. I do not share these opinions but individual preferences vary.

The cost of free software can be likened to the cost of free sex... It's called RISK. The sites that offer free serial numbers for, or de-serialized versions of commercial software are notorious for inserting viruses and malware and ransomware into those applications. I'd rather my computer NOT have the electronic equivalent of AIDS, herpes, hepatitis A, or HPV.

An acquaintance of mine downloaded a "free" version of Photoshop CS6 a few years ago. His rather new computer began acting wonky just hours after he installed "free" Ps. He lost everything on the boot drive, and had to have it replaced. Fortunately, he had a clean backup from two weeks earlier.

People love to scoff at Apple's "walled garden" of the App Stores, or the Adobe and Microsoft subscription services. But if you ever get a bad malware infection the way that guy did, you might understand. Some of us would rather just use our machines than fight them.

I think you're cost estimates for the perpetually licensed versions of PS & LR are exaggerated.

I used Photoshop since Version 4, from the mid 1990s (i.e., 12 or 13 years earlier 2008's "CS4").

After the initial purchase (I don't recall the amount, but it was a lot less then), I updated approx. every other version of Photoshop: 4, 6, CS, CS3, CS5, CS6. That meant an upgrade every three to four years and the cost was typically $250 or less for the upgrade version (which was identical to a "full version", except it wouldn't install unless you had an older version on your computer).

I started using Lightroom with the first version sometime in 2008. Because LR was "in development", I updated to most versions of it. I think I skipped one version (2 or 4?)... But this also worked out to around every thee years and the cost was $125 to $150 (except for the last, which was only $99).

I figured I was spending roughly $360 every three years for upgrades, on average... Does this amount sound familiar? In other words, over 20+ years my cost for perpetually licensed LR/PS worked out to be almost exactly the same as the $10 a month LR/PS "cloud" subscription (to get that price you must prepay a year). I suspect a lot of other long term users of Adobe software did something similar, most didn't didn't upgrade to every version (unless they were a professional reviewer, an author writing how-to books, a plug-in developer or their company was buying it for them!)

Anyway, it's a far cry from the $200 a year you estimated.

I know for certain I never paid $800 for PS. I think the highest price I ever saw on a full version was around $650 (though I didn't need it, instead bought a considerably less expensive upgrade version).

Lightroom was mostly only sold in "full versions" for $125 to $150, not offered in a lower priced upgrade version until LR6 (and, that was never promoted anywhere, kept very "well hidden" by Adobe and only available bought directly from their website).

I also prefer to control my updates (which I did regularly, between actual upgrades)... Those were plenty frequent and free, and unless you were still using a really old version where updates were no longer avail., were all that was needed to handle a new camera model. I was part of the Adobe PS and LR Beta program for a while and learned not to be too quick to install an update (I kept the Beta programs separate from my "daily use" version of the software). I wouldn't want the automatic cloud updates "pushed" to me and don't have to have the "latest and greatest". Updates may or may not be fully sorted out and I'd rather let other people deal with the problems.

Now I'm "flying for free". I'm still using PS CS6... intro'd 2012, upgraded to it in 2013 for $225, final free ACR update issued and installed in early 2017... and LR6, intro'd 2015, upgraded to it in 2016 for $99, final update 6.14 installed 2018. So I've gotten close to 6 years out of PS CS6 and 3 years out of LR6... so far.

They're able to handle the cameras I currently use now, as well as some other more recent models I may add at some point in the future. If/when I upgrade to a camera model too new for them to handle, well I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.... I'll either bite the bullet and subscribe or abandon Adobe for something else (after 20+ years as a customer).

Yeah, there are a few features in the CC versions I'd like to try and might find useful... But not enough to get me to subscribe.

I'd also contend that you don't need to upgrade Elements every two years. It sells for $100 currently, but for that you can use it as long as you like: Until Adobe adds a feature to a future version that you just gotta have... Or until you buy a new camera that's not supported by your older version of the software. But even if you do upgrade Elements every couple years, that's going to cost $50 or less per year. But there are folks out there happily using 4, 6, 8 and even 10 year old copies of Elements!

To the original poster, I'd recommend you download the free 30-day trial of Elements 2019 and take it for a test drive. It will probably do all you want for a very reasonable price. (Might want to buy one of the guide books for Elements 2019 off Amazon and have it in hand, before you download... to get the best out of your 30 days with the software.)

I think there is a misunderstanding in how the subscription software works. You don't pay a fee to "buy" the software and then a monthly subscription charge on top of that. There is no initial cost for the software...just the monthly fee. I use Lightroom Classic and Photoshop and pay a $10 monthly fee. No up front software cost. For my $10, I can use the software on multiple computers and mobile devices, get all updates including new features, and get support from the company. So it's $120 per year...period. Given what I used to spend to purchase the two applications and update them every 2-3 years, the monthly subscription isn't that much and I'm always up to date.