"On inflation, we expect to see continued progress over the coming quarters. Supply chains are continuing to heal and price pressures emanating from dwellings and services continue to moderate. Notably, services demand should cool as consumer spending wanes, but upward wage pressures may persist. We expect year-over-year inflation readings to hit the Fed’s 2 percent target in Q3 2024. This expectation will trigger rate cuts starting in June 2024. We anticipate 25 basis point cuts at every meeting (125bp in 2024) until rates fall below 3 percent in Q3 2025."
This takes some of the partisan haggling out of the discussion.
The table has been set for a no-recession full recovery.