It’s time to separate legend from reality
Oct 2, 2023 14:37:56 #
October 2, 2023
Byzas of Megara must have been positively dumbfounded when he first set foot on the banks of the Bosporus River.
It was the year 667 BC, more than 2,700 years ago, and Byzas was on a mission from the Greek mainland to find new colonies.
His fleet had just landed on the European side of modern day Istanbul. And as he gazed across the river to the Asian side, Byzas could see another small settlement-- a tiny colony known as Chalcedon.
From a strategic and maritime perspective, the Asian side of the river was obviously inferior. There was no protective terrain, no natural harbors. And the ground was more of a swamp.
Byzas thought the settlers at Chalcedon must have been blind to build their settlement on the wrong side of the river, when they could just have easily built on the vastly superior European side.
But he wasn’t about to let the Chalcedons fix their mistake; so Byzas immediately seized the land and established a new colony. It became known to history by many names-- Byzantium. Constantinople. And now Istanbul.
One of his first priorities was to build a wall… to protect from the Chalcedons just in case they got any bright ideas and tried to seize the European side for themselves.
And over time, the walls of Byzantium grew. Later rulers added dozens of towers and gates. The walls were reinforced and thickened. New walls were added.
By the time Byzantium became the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire in the 300s AD (and was renamed Constantinople), the city’s walls were already impressive. But Rome’s imperial government continued to invest further in the city’s defenses.
Eventually the Walls of Constantinople became legendary; kings and military commanders around the world simply accepted as t***h that the city’s walls were impenetrable. And it remained this way for more than 1,000 years.
But the legend finally died on May 29, 1453. After a prolonged siege, the armies of Ottoman leader Mehmed II did what everyone had thought was impossible: he breached the walls of Constantinople and sacked the city.
In retrospect this shouldn’t have been a surprise. By the 1400s, the Byzantine Empire was bankrupt and nearly collapsed. Everyone knew it. Especially the Ottomans.
But there’s something inherently emotional about watching a legend die, so the loss at Constantinople was a shocking event at the time.
History is full of similar stories, as is our popular culture.
Muhammed Ali was 38 years old when he climbed into the ring to face a much younger Larry Holmes in October 1980.
Everyone knew that Ali was slower, weaker, and well past his prime. But he was also a legend… so, despite all rational evidence, people still believed Ali could win. The odds in Las Vegas, in fact, were quite close.
Reality set in when the bell rang; Larry Holmes savagely pummeled Ali for ten straight rounds until Ali’s trainer finally threw in the towel to stop the fight.
A young Sylvester Stallone was in attendance and watched the fight from the first row; it was so brutal he later described the fight as “watching an autopsy on a man who’s still alive.”
Even when it should be obvious, legends still die hard.
It’s difficult to not feel the same way about the Legend of America. People around the world… including hundreds of millions in the United States… don’t want the legend to die.
But the rational data is too obvious to ignore.
Late Saturday night, after narrowly avoiding another shutdown, the US government closed its 2023 fiscal year. And while the final data won’t be published for a few weeks, it looks like the deficit for the year will be close to $2 trillion. And gross interest on the debt will total nearly $900 billion.
That’s on a national debt that now exceeds $33 trillion-- an increase of more than $10 trillion (around 50%) from before the p******c in October 2019.
It’s extraordinary how little the people in charge seem to care.
In fact, not only will this catastrophe continue to be ignored, I’m almost certain that the White House will actually brag about these results; they’ll make some bizarre claim that these abysmal numbers prove that their i***tic policies are working.
And their propagandists in the mainstream media will dutifully repeat this fiction with a straight face to the American public.
Yet even the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the problem will quickly become much worse.
Just consider that spending for this current fiscal year (which started yesterday) is projected to reach $6.4 trillion. However only about $900 billion of that is “discretionary”, non-defense spending.
In other words, almost all the money that the government spends is either mandatory entitlement programs (like Social Security and Medicare), interest on the debt, or defense.
Conclusion? There are very few options to make a significant dent in the deficit problem. They’ll either have to cut benefits to Social Security recipients. Or slash military spending. Or default on the debt.
It’s doubtful that any politician has the will to do any of those things. So the fallback option, of course, will be to do what governments in trouble have almost invariably done throughout history: print more money.
The Federal Reserve will almost certainly have to reverse course… and not only STOP the interest rate hikes, but reverse them and slash rates back to zero. They might even make interest rates negative, just to give extra, needed support to the federal government.
The impact on the dollar in this case will be substantial, including inflation, and the loss of its dominant global reserve status.
And this brings me back to the ‘legend’ of America’s invincibility.
The legend has already been pierced multiple times over the past few years from a series of national humiliations-- the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan, the President shaking hands with thin air, the constant debt ceiling and government shutdown fiascos.
Any rational observer can easily see that that America is past its peak, like Muhammed Ali in 1980. Yet most people still want to cling to the legend of invincibility… and they’ll continue to do so until it finally crumbles for good.
Now, I’ll be the first to acknowledge that the US still has a narrow window to solve its problems. It’s also true that the US is not alone in having gargantuan challenges.
Europe is suffering major fiscal imbalances too, not to mention a migration crisis and war in its backyard. China has its own economic, banking, and demographic emergencies.
But none of that is a sensible reason to ignore such obvious threats. It seems foolish to pin one’s hopes and dreams on politicians who shake hands with thin air, refuse to work together, nor rationally discuss problems and priorities.
And this is why having a Plan B is so critical.
History is an ample guidebook to the future consequences of these challenges. More inflation. Higher taxes. Social chaos. Potentially even war.
Yet while it’s clear we cannot rely on government to fix the problems of their own making, a solid Plan B can mitigate the consequences.
The basics are simple: don’t keep all of your eggs in one basket. Have a place to go. Diversify jurisdictions. Own real assets. Implement simple, legal strategies to reduce your taxes. Protect your assets. Think long term.
There are plenty of solutions out there as well.
But the first step is separating legend from reality.
To your freedom,
Simon Black, Founder
Sovereign Man
Byzas of Megara must have been positively dumbfounded when he first set foot on the banks of the Bosporus River.
It was the year 667 BC, more than 2,700 years ago, and Byzas was on a mission from the Greek mainland to find new colonies.
His fleet had just landed on the European side of modern day Istanbul. And as he gazed across the river to the Asian side, Byzas could see another small settlement-- a tiny colony known as Chalcedon.
From a strategic and maritime perspective, the Asian side of the river was obviously inferior. There was no protective terrain, no natural harbors. And the ground was more of a swamp.
Byzas thought the settlers at Chalcedon must have been blind to build their settlement on the wrong side of the river, when they could just have easily built on the vastly superior European side.
But he wasn’t about to let the Chalcedons fix their mistake; so Byzas immediately seized the land and established a new colony. It became known to history by many names-- Byzantium. Constantinople. And now Istanbul.
One of his first priorities was to build a wall… to protect from the Chalcedons just in case they got any bright ideas and tried to seize the European side for themselves.
And over time, the walls of Byzantium grew. Later rulers added dozens of towers and gates. The walls were reinforced and thickened. New walls were added.
By the time Byzantium became the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire in the 300s AD (and was renamed Constantinople), the city’s walls were already impressive. But Rome’s imperial government continued to invest further in the city’s defenses.
Eventually the Walls of Constantinople became legendary; kings and military commanders around the world simply accepted as t***h that the city’s walls were impenetrable. And it remained this way for more than 1,000 years.
But the legend finally died on May 29, 1453. After a prolonged siege, the armies of Ottoman leader Mehmed II did what everyone had thought was impossible: he breached the walls of Constantinople and sacked the city.
In retrospect this shouldn’t have been a surprise. By the 1400s, the Byzantine Empire was bankrupt and nearly collapsed. Everyone knew it. Especially the Ottomans.
But there’s something inherently emotional about watching a legend die, so the loss at Constantinople was a shocking event at the time.
History is full of similar stories, as is our popular culture.
Muhammed Ali was 38 years old when he climbed into the ring to face a much younger Larry Holmes in October 1980.
Everyone knew that Ali was slower, weaker, and well past his prime. But he was also a legend… so, despite all rational evidence, people still believed Ali could win. The odds in Las Vegas, in fact, were quite close.
Reality set in when the bell rang; Larry Holmes savagely pummeled Ali for ten straight rounds until Ali’s trainer finally threw in the towel to stop the fight.
A young Sylvester Stallone was in attendance and watched the fight from the first row; it was so brutal he later described the fight as “watching an autopsy on a man who’s still alive.”
Even when it should be obvious, legends still die hard.
It’s difficult to not feel the same way about the Legend of America. People around the world… including hundreds of millions in the United States… don’t want the legend to die.
But the rational data is too obvious to ignore.
Late Saturday night, after narrowly avoiding another shutdown, the US government closed its 2023 fiscal year. And while the final data won’t be published for a few weeks, it looks like the deficit for the year will be close to $2 trillion. And gross interest on the debt will total nearly $900 billion.
That’s on a national debt that now exceeds $33 trillion-- an increase of more than $10 trillion (around 50%) from before the p******c in October 2019.
It’s extraordinary how little the people in charge seem to care.
In fact, not only will this catastrophe continue to be ignored, I’m almost certain that the White House will actually brag about these results; they’ll make some bizarre claim that these abysmal numbers prove that their i***tic policies are working.
And their propagandists in the mainstream media will dutifully repeat this fiction with a straight face to the American public.
Yet even the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the problem will quickly become much worse.
Just consider that spending for this current fiscal year (which started yesterday) is projected to reach $6.4 trillion. However only about $900 billion of that is “discretionary”, non-defense spending.
In other words, almost all the money that the government spends is either mandatory entitlement programs (like Social Security and Medicare), interest on the debt, or defense.
Conclusion? There are very few options to make a significant dent in the deficit problem. They’ll either have to cut benefits to Social Security recipients. Or slash military spending. Or default on the debt.
It’s doubtful that any politician has the will to do any of those things. So the fallback option, of course, will be to do what governments in trouble have almost invariably done throughout history: print more money.
The Federal Reserve will almost certainly have to reverse course… and not only STOP the interest rate hikes, but reverse them and slash rates back to zero. They might even make interest rates negative, just to give extra, needed support to the federal government.
The impact on the dollar in this case will be substantial, including inflation, and the loss of its dominant global reserve status.
And this brings me back to the ‘legend’ of America’s invincibility.
The legend has already been pierced multiple times over the past few years from a series of national humiliations-- the embarrassing withdrawal from Afghanistan, the President shaking hands with thin air, the constant debt ceiling and government shutdown fiascos.
Any rational observer can easily see that that America is past its peak, like Muhammed Ali in 1980. Yet most people still want to cling to the legend of invincibility… and they’ll continue to do so until it finally crumbles for good.
Now, I’ll be the first to acknowledge that the US still has a narrow window to solve its problems. It’s also true that the US is not alone in having gargantuan challenges.
Europe is suffering major fiscal imbalances too, not to mention a migration crisis and war in its backyard. China has its own economic, banking, and demographic emergencies.
But none of that is a sensible reason to ignore such obvious threats. It seems foolish to pin one’s hopes and dreams on politicians who shake hands with thin air, refuse to work together, nor rationally discuss problems and priorities.
And this is why having a Plan B is so critical.
History is an ample guidebook to the future consequences of these challenges. More inflation. Higher taxes. Social chaos. Potentially even war.
Yet while it’s clear we cannot rely on government to fix the problems of their own making, a solid Plan B can mitigate the consequences.
The basics are simple: don’t keep all of your eggs in one basket. Have a place to go. Diversify jurisdictions. Own real assets. Implement simple, legal strategies to reduce your taxes. Protect your assets. Think long term.
There are plenty of solutions out there as well.
But the first step is separating legend from reality.
To your freedom,
Simon Black, Founder
Sovereign Man
Oct 2, 2023 16:24:38 #
Interesting article. If anyone has read my past comments, they might find that I do not believe that either party at this point has the answer. The national debt under Trump increased by $7.8 billion; Biden appears after three years to be $7.1 billion in new debt. One guy running is in his 80's; the other will be in his 80's if elected. The number of people in Congress who are in positions of control are also in the 80's. A number of people in Congress on both sides are of questionable morality and ability.
One guy is under indictment and spread false rumors about the last e******n; another has trouble putting a sentence together whose son is accused of being a crook. In Congress each party is working to make the other look bad, intelligent governing be damned.
Both parties nominate people that will fulfill their respective agenda - the Republicans for the Supreme Court people that are anti-a******n. Today California Democrats named a gay black woman to replace Feinstein in the Senate; I'll pick on her to see if she really represents the people. B****s represent 12% of the populations, gays 7%, so .12 x .07 = .8%, so this person represents less that 1% of the population, but fulfills a promise made by the governor of California.Were any of these nominations really made to get the best qualified person in the job; I think not. Both the Senate and the Supreme Court appointees were to fulfill a political agenda; what's best for the nation be damned.
The Democrats are basically allowing an open border; the belief that we can save everyone - unfortunately we can't, we are getting more and more in debt. The Republican are seeking revenge because their guy was impeached; our servicemen putting their lives on the line almost didn't get paid and one moron is trying to oust the speaker because he reached across the aisle.
As a country and often in this forum we forget that collectively, we are one people - we might not like what the other guy has to say, but thankfully so far they have the right to say it. Our enemies are external and they are doing their damndest to foment our differences. Perhaps its time to remind the people that we elect that we don't have infinite resources to spend and to start looking ahead to solve our issues rather than what happened in the past.
One guy is under indictment and spread false rumors about the last e******n; another has trouble putting a sentence together whose son is accused of being a crook. In Congress each party is working to make the other look bad, intelligent governing be damned.
Both parties nominate people that will fulfill their respective agenda - the Republicans for the Supreme Court people that are anti-a******n. Today California Democrats named a gay black woman to replace Feinstein in the Senate; I'll pick on her to see if she really represents the people. B****s represent 12% of the populations, gays 7%, so .12 x .07 = .8%, so this person represents less that 1% of the population, but fulfills a promise made by the governor of California.Were any of these nominations really made to get the best qualified person in the job; I think not. Both the Senate and the Supreme Court appointees were to fulfill a political agenda; what's best for the nation be damned.
The Democrats are basically allowing an open border; the belief that we can save everyone - unfortunately we can't, we are getting more and more in debt. The Republican are seeking revenge because their guy was impeached; our servicemen putting their lives on the line almost didn't get paid and one moron is trying to oust the speaker because he reached across the aisle.
As a country and often in this forum we forget that collectively, we are one people - we might not like what the other guy has to say, but thankfully so far they have the right to say it. Our enemies are external and they are doing their damndest to foment our differences. Perhaps its time to remind the people that we elect that we don't have infinite resources to spend and to start looking ahead to solve our issues rather than what happened in the past.
Oct 2, 2023 17:46:16 #
rwoodvira wrote:
Interesting article. If anyone has read my past co... (show quote)
Term limits could be one solution.
Oct 2, 2023 20:53:26 #
thom w
Loc: San Jose, CA
rwoodvira wrote:
Interesting article. If anyone has read my past co... (show quote)
Are you really suggesting that being black, and being gay is all she is. I'm quite sure she is many things, including the two you mentioned.Why do you wish to put people in cute little containers. Almost everyong is much more complex than you suggest. I'm not suggesting that all of your posts are shallow, but this one was.The idea that a gay person can only represent gay people, and a black person can only represent black people, and a woman can only represent women is absurd. For that matter the idea that a Republican can only represent Republicans and a Democrat can only represent Democrats is also absurd. Some Republicans do only represent Republicans, but that is not how it is supposed to be.
Oct 3, 2023 08:45:14 #
[quote=thom w]
Not at all. Newsom indicated that he was going to pick someone that was black to fulfill a political agenda. I have no problem if they are the most qualified; but he ruled out all others rather than looking for the best person to fill Feinstein's post. It is just as demeaning if he said, we haven't had a White Anglo-Saxon person in the position so let's put one in to fill the position. Can you imagine the outrage that would raise?
Not at all. Newsom indicated that he was going to pick someone that was black to fulfill a political agenda. I have no problem if they are the most qualified; but he ruled out all others rather than looking for the best person to fill Feinstein's post. It is just as demeaning if he said, we haven't had a White Anglo-Saxon person in the position so let's put one in to fill the position. Can you imagine the outrage that would raise?
Oct 3, 2023 10:36:03 #
thom w
Loc: San Jose, CA
[quote=rwoodvira]
That would only spark outrage because it would be a blatent lie. If you have evidence that she isn't qualified, that changes things. Also, you haven't explained why you suggested, hell you came right an said it, that she only represents the small number that uou stated. I wouldn't v**e for a black person that would only represent black people or a gay person who would only represent gay people, but I'm not aware of any such candidates.
thom w wrote:
Not at all. Newsom indicated that he was going to pick someone that was black to fulfill a political agenda. I have no problem if they are the most qualified; but he ruled out all others rather than looking for the best person to fill Feinstein's post. It is just as demeaning if he said, we haven't had a White Anglo-Saxon person in the position so let's put one in to fill the position. Can you imagine the outrage that would raise?
Not at all. Newsom indicated that he was going to pick someone that was black to fulfill a political agenda. I have no problem if they are the most qualified; but he ruled out all others rather than looking for the best person to fill Feinstein's post. It is just as demeaning if he said, we haven't had a White Anglo-Saxon person in the position so let's put one in to fill the position. Can you imagine the outrage that would raise?
That would only spark outrage because it would be a blatent lie. If you have evidence that she isn't qualified, that changes things. Also, you haven't explained why you suggested, hell you came right an said it, that she only represents the small number that uou stated. I wouldn't v**e for a black person that would only represent black people or a gay person who would only represent gay people, but I'm not aware of any such candidates.
Oct 3, 2023 11:17:11 #
sgt hop
Loc: baltimore md,now in salisbury md
bcheary wrote:
Term limits could be one solution.
right on....but they don't wanna cut their own throats....if the citizen could get a v**e on this probably pass in a landslide....
Oct 4, 2023 07:13:06 #
bcheary wrote:
October 2, 2023 br br Byzas of Megara must have b... (show quote)
Thank you, excellent article.
Oct 4, 2023 15:27:28 #
Oct 4, 2023 15:30:07 #
Oct 4, 2023 15:47:19 #
thom w
Loc: San Jose, CA
Alafoto wrote:
The handwriting on the wall, boys and girls.
If you don't like your representative, v**e him/her out. If you don't like my representative, it's none of your damned business. That's the beauty of democracy. Something you don't seem to be in favor of.
Oct 4, 2023 15:55:09 #
Alafoto
Loc: Montgomery, AL
Thank you for granting me your permission to perform a function that I always thought was a guaranteed right of American citizenship. I'm greatly in favor of democracy, even when the rankest moron or the lowliest ghetto l***h has the same power as I do. People can't always be stupid enough to v**e people like Biden in. Surely common sense will prevail some day.
Oct 4, 2023 16:01:46 #
thom w
Loc: San Jose, CA
Alafoto wrote:
Thank you for granting me your permission to perform a function that I always thought was a guaranteed right of American citizenship. I'm greatly in favor of democracy, even when the rankest moron or the lowliest ghetto l***h has the same power as I do. People can't always be stupid enough to v**e people like Biden in. Surely common sense will prevail some day.
You failed to address why you believe you should be able to get rid of my representative. By the way, has anyone explained to you the purpose and function of the "quote reply" button?
Oct 4, 2023 16:37:35 #
[quote=thom w]
My concern is that prior to the C***D plague Newsom advised he wanted to appoint a minority to be Director of Public Health in California. He appointed a Hispanic woman who was an internist. The best people for this type of job are infectious disease experts as the main job of public health is to minimize exposure of the populace to infectious disease whether its something such as VD or something else such as influenza. When C***D hit she blew it - according to the book The Premonition, she couldn't recognize the threat of the disease and kept knowledgeable people at bay. By then the genii was out of the bottle. She had a very short tenure and was replaced by someone who knew what they were doing. The current director is Hispanic and an expert in Public Health. Maybe Newsom learned - most politicians never do in my experience.
So my first thought remains, is the new Senate person the most qualified, or does she fit a political agenda?
PS If you want to see how people of both parties screwed C***D up, read the book - a lot of deaths could have been prevented.
My concern is that prior to the C***D plague Newsom advised he wanted to appoint a minority to be Director of Public Health in California. He appointed a Hispanic woman who was an internist. The best people for this type of job are infectious disease experts as the main job of public health is to minimize exposure of the populace to infectious disease whether its something such as VD or something else such as influenza. When C***D hit she blew it - according to the book The Premonition, she couldn't recognize the threat of the disease and kept knowledgeable people at bay. By then the genii was out of the bottle. She had a very short tenure and was replaced by someone who knew what they were doing. The current director is Hispanic and an expert in Public Health. Maybe Newsom learned - most politicians never do in my experience.
So my first thought remains, is the new Senate person the most qualified, or does she fit a political agenda?
PS If you want to see how people of both parties screwed C***D up, read the book - a lot of deaths could have been prevented.
Oct 4, 2023 19:22:08 #
Alafoto
Loc: Montgomery, AL
thom w wrote:
You failed to address why you believe you should be able to get rid of my representative. By the way, has anyone explained to you the purpose and function of the "quote reply" button?
I don't recall mentioning your representative at all. I don't know who your representative is, and as you said, it's none of my business since I know we don't v**e in the same state. By the way, yes they have.
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