"New Hampshire’s Republican primary on Tuesday confirmed the trend we have seen all year long: the narrow dominance of populist, MAGA elements within the GOP. That fact demonstrates that only one Republican could deny Donald Trump the party’s 2024 p**********l nomination: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Granite State v**ers had a variety of options to choose from, with strong, establishment-backed conservatives running in races for the state’s Senate seat and both House seats. In all three cases, Republicans chose the Trumpiest candidate. None had the former president’s blessing, but all nonetheless carried his implicit imprimatur as they faithfully imitated his angry style and embraced his views on issues from immigration to e******n denialism. The verdict, as disappointing as it is to the party establishment, merely echoes similar decisions by v**ers across the nation.

At first blush, this might be depressing for Republicans who think it’s time to move on from Trump. It doesn’t seem to matter if the person backed by the old guard can spend millions of her own dollars, as Arizona’s gubernatorial hopeful Karrin Taylor Robson did(and it doesn’t help that Democrats are trying to boost Trump-aligned candidates). Prior statewide office doesn’t seem to help, as former Wisconsin lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch discovered in her bid for governor. Even prior service in the Trump administration doesn’t automatically confer the MAGA mantle, as New Hampshire congressional candidate Matt Mowers found Tuesday night. Not every ultra-Trumpy candidate has won, but enough have that the party’s drift is unmistakable.

Still, this does not mean Trump’s renomination is assured. The party’s v**ers seem willing to entertain someone else, so long as that person has a similar populist emphasis and pugnacious style. That’s what recent data from the Republican polling firm Echelon Insights suggests.

Echelon’s August poll found that despite sky-high approval ratings, only 65 percent of GOP and GOP-leaning v**ers want Trump to run again. Trump’s support drops the deeper one digs. Only 59 percent say they would definitely or probably back Trump in a primary if he did run, and he would win only 46 percent in a contested primary that included DeSantis and former vice president Mike Pence. In fact, 44 percent say they would v**e for DeSantis, Pence or one of two noted Trump critics, Rep. Liz Cheney and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan. That’s effectively a tie, before any of Trump’s potential opponents have even started to campaign against him.

That might confound experts if they haven’t been following the intra-GOP factions very closely. Party v**ers now say 48 to 41 that they are likelier to be “party-first Republicans” than “Trump-first Republicans.” Party-first Republicans hold much more negative views of Trump than the other cohort, and they are even more likely to oppose him in a hypothetical matchup. Trump notably gets 77 percent of Trump-first Republicans’ support in a hypothetical race with DeSantis and others, but only 30 percent among party-firsters. And 57 percent of party-firsters already oppose Trump’s renomination.

This is encouraging news that shows the GOP might not be solely loyal to the “mayor of Mar-a-Lago.” The data also show why DeSantis is likely the only person who can dethrone Trump.

DeSantis is the only potential opponent who has substantial support from both the “party-first” and “Trump-first” wings of the party (he receives 13 percent of Trump-firsters and 33 percent of party-firsters). Pence and Cheney appeal to only 3 percent of Trump-firsters, and their weak standing with the MAGA base due to their rhetoric on the J*** 6 r**ts suggests they can’t really improve upon that.

DeSantis’s strength with Trump-first Republicans becomes more obvious after removing Trump from the mix entirely. DeSantis receives 41 percent in a 2024 field without Trump, leading his closest competitors by 30 points. He does about as well among Trump-firsters (47 percent) as with party-firsters (41 percent). Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, by contrast, does much better with Trumpists, while Pence breaks double digits only with party-firsters. Eleven percent of party-firsters prefer Cheney, Hogan, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney or former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley; only 2 percent of Trump-firsters agree.

It’s not hard to figure out why DeSantis has such credibility among the Trumpy set. His pugnacious style in responding to media criticism endears him to those who want a fighter. His willingness to talk about culture war topics such as critical race theory or “woke corporations” is music to the ears of many populists. And his other positions — pro-life, pro-tax cut, traditional foreign policy views — make party-firsters like him, too.
Republican revere the American Founding and surely recall the Revolutionary War adage: United we stand, divided we fall. DeSantis’s unique ability to unite the party’s warring wings points a way to end the GOP civil war and take the fight home to the Democrats."

Henry Osen