ricardo00

Now that the RNA vaccines have been approved (and showed 95% efficacy), it will be harder and harder to get new vaccines approved and harder to get volunteers since they may only receive a placebo and the people in the over 65 year age group could be eligible to get one of the RNA vaccines. The peptide vaccine of Novavax just reached the half-way mark:
https://www.novavax.com/covid-19-trial-updates

Johnsons and Johnson is scheduled to release the results from their single dose clinical trial in a week or two.
And the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine, which was approved in the UK but not in the US, is concluding its clinical trials in the US about the same time as J&J and should release their results shortly after that.

Anyone want to offer odds on these 3 new vaccines matching the efficacy of the approved RNA ones?

Cany143 Loc: SE Utah

Not that I don't appreciate your question, but considering the opinions I've read from the numerous highly qualified virologists, epidemiologists, drug takers makers, snake oil salesmen/women, and wannabe witch doctors who've posted Covid stuff here on UHH, I've decided to limit my betting allowance to the weekly Friday night Texas Hold-'Em games me and my friends used to have. In the pre-pandemic, halcyon days of yore, that is. If my state had any sort of PowerBall Lottery, I might consider that, too, but it doesn't.

Odds for drawing to an inside straight are what? Thirteen and a half to one?

ricardo00

Guess you haven't heard of the app called Robinhood? For stay at home betting (even in states that don't have the PowerBall lottery), one can bet on stocks (with or without help from Reddit). I posted a few minutes too early, Novavax just released its results of its UK clinical trial, an effectiveness of 89.3%. (yep the stock is up big in the aftermarket)

Cany143 Loc: SE Utah

Sorry to hear you posted a few minutes too early, ricardo. I'm 100% sure you'll recoup that half a million you lost real, real soon!

Bridges Loc: Memphis, Charleston SC, now Nazareth PA

I heard this morning the J&J vaccine was only 66% effective but 85% effective for a certain group -- which group I can't remember just now. That was released by J&J themselves.

Mark Sturtevant Loc: Grand Blanc, MI

I am hoping that several different effective vaccines are rolled out over this year or two, and that this will help distribute these tools to ALL countries. Not all places can afford keeping vaccines at ultra low temperatures, and distribute them to remote places. But Covid in those places comes here eventually.
That is how we can finally start to control this @$#% thing.

ricardo00

Yep just catching up on the news and you are correct! Even with the one shot, J&J was reasonably effective and as you noted, different percents in different groups.

ricardo00

I agree Mark! The more vaccines the merrier. There are also Chinese developed ones which presumably are the cheapest? And it will require many different sources of vaccines to vaccinate the 8 billion people in the world. Assuming one wants to travel, it would be great to get everyone vaccinated.

marquina Loc: Richmond, Virginia

Unfortunately, the definition of "efficacy" varies from vaccine to vaccine. So you can't just rely on the posted "efficacy rates". Only the J&J vaccine is focused on reducing "severe" symptoms. The other 2 are not. Of course, none of the vaccines prevent the infection.

David Martin Loc: Cary, NC

I did not think there was any hard, conclusive data to say whether they do or do not prevent infection.
Please share your source of information and if possible provide a link to the study/studies that reached this conclusion.
Thanks in advance.

marquina Loc: Richmond, Virginia

marquina Loc: Richmond, Virginia

ricardo00

I would agree, that the efficacy will vary depending on country, age of the individuals vaccinated, as well as the end-point in the different clinical trials. As noted in more detailed press releases, the J&J vaccine was 72% effective in the US in reducing the moderate-severe COVID-19 cases (which compares to the 95% efficacy of the RNA vaccinations). In the published clinical trials of the two RNA vaccines, these vaccines were 100% effective against severe COVID-19 cases (ie. those infections which resulted in hospitalization). Also as pointed out in one of your references below, the playing field is constantly changing with the arrival of the various mutations in the virus in different countries. Since all the vaccines were designed against the original sequence of the virus, it is possible that the arrival of various mutant strains would mean that the RNA vaccines would show lower efficacy if tested today depending on the percentage of mutants in a particular population. The extreme is seen in South Africa where the J&J vaccine was only 57% effective because of the high preponderance of mutant viruses. Additional details of the results of the J&J clinical trials will presumably be in the publication of these studies (I don't think this has happened yet).
I am not sure what you mean by saying "none of the vaccines prevent the infection". If one is exposed to the virus, some may be taken up and if one's immune response is sufficient by vaccination, it potentially would be feasible that a vaccination would prevent those viral particles to reproduce, thereby preventing infection. The more important read-out may indeed be the reduction in severe symptoms (ie. hospitalizations). And all the vaccines appear to be relatively good at this. So the approval of cheaper and more readily transported vaccines as well as increasing the total number of vaccines available can only be a good thing.