Virus - closed cases... It is improving. (Not political): The news on that side is better. When I first posted it was 2 out of 5 (40%) dying. Now it is 1 out of 4 (24%), a better odd...

Rongnongno Loc: FL

The news on that side is better.

When I first posted it was 2 out of 5 (40%) dying. Now it is 1 out of 4 (24%), a better odd still the world ratio is lower 16%.

Ever so slowly the survival ratio is creeping up. This not really good news a it means we are still looking at 71,500 more deaths, not including new cases.

robertjerl Loc: Corona, California

Rongnongno wrote:

The news on that side is better.

When I first posted it was 2 out of 5 (40%) dying. Now it is 1 out of 4 (24%), a better odd still the world ratio is lower 16%.

Ever so slowly the survival ratio is creeping up. This not really good news a it means we are still looking at 71,500 more deaths, not including new cases.

Also as they develop and ramp up production of the anti-body tests they will finally know how many people had the mild version and didn't know it. Thought it was a cold or didn't feel anything much. Then we'll be able to calculate the stats on % who had it, % who needed medical help, % who went to a hospital, % who got serious, % who recovered and % who died. Then we will truly know how bad this thing was. And since it seems to prefer cold and dry conditions the southern hemisphere is just now heading toward their winter and conditions for the virus to thrive. I hope something happens to keep it from getting bad down there.
I saw an article complaining that the US hasn't tested as many people per capita as other countries. They didn't mention we have tested more in absolute numbers than any other nation and are testing at an accelerated rate. I mean, we have 328 million people, it takes a while to make kits and test that many. Especially when no one even knew we really needed tests until a few months ago.

timcc Loc: Virginia

I have to agree with robertjeri on the counts. The published coronavirus numbers tend to be a bit kinky. Until we can achieve something a lot closer to full testing, the number of cases will always be under-estimated and the death rate will therefore be over-estimated. That said, even the death rate numbers are probably too low, since an unknown number of people who died at home (or even in some hospitals or other care facilities) and were never tested may have been virus victims. So the aggregate percentages need to be taken with a grain of salt, unfortunately.

toxdoc42

robertjerl wrote:

Also as they develop and ramp up production of the... (show quote)

Unfortunately the current antibody tests are not specific enough to be used for anything except epidemiological research. Given the current reliability, syatedvas 95%, and at an estimated prevalence rate of 5%, the percent of expected false positives is 50% that means, you might as well just flip a coin. We really can't ask for more, we have so little experience with this virus, we learn something new almost on a daily basis. We still have so much to learn. We lost our institutional memory about these epidemics, fell behind in preparation and are paying the penalty.

usken65

John Hopkins puts the mortality rate at .01. And correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t that the best hospital in the country.

robertjerl Loc: Corona, California

timcc wrote:

I have to agree with robertjeri on the counts. The... (show quote)

Ah, but in several different places they have started to list all cases with pneumonia/flu/cold like symptoms as Covid-19 even without tests. And other places are listing all deaths of people who tested positive even if it was something else that killed the individual such as traumatic injuries or heart attack.
The real numbers are going to be a real hassle to figure out.
One doctor stated that a patient came into the ER with extreme injuries from a car crash then died. During the autopsy it was found the patient was positive for Covid-19. Guess which column that death went in? Hint the hospital doesn't get extra money for crash victims but does for Covid-19 victims.

chrissybabe Loc: New Zealand

The real numbers ARE NOT going to be hard to figure out.
Take a county and check the population for April 2019 (or use census figures).
Do the same check for April 2020.
Now do the same but use the total death rate for each of the two months.
Take the death rate for 2019 from the death rate for 2020. The figure left is those killed by the virus. This takes care of misdiagnoses etc.
This stuff is not rocket science.
It won't be entirely accurate but I am picking who cares ?
eg less deaths from flu in 2020 (because of the keeping distance apart) which would add to the rate from the virus but somebody could use extrapolations to come up with a percentage to apply to count for a lower traffic accident and flu rates and probably apply this to every State. You would get a reasonable close figure.
One person could complete in a day an entire year for the whole country figures instead of the thousands currently collecting 'guesses' daily.

HamB

Very astute analysis.

chrissybabe Loc: New Zealand

HamB wrote:

Very astute analysis.

If this was referring to the article from me just before yours then thank you.
However I should point out that it isn't my idea. I saw this suggested about 6 (?) weeks on Peak Prosperity and it had been suggested or commented on by one of their subscribers I think.
There is a vast amount of knowledge about the virus available that you WILL NOT see coming from any official channels like The News, CDC, various health boards, the WHO, your President etc because this would mean they would have to admit that they DON'T really have a handle on this at all.

GregS Loc: Central Illinois, USA

It's hard to believe all the numbers thrown around concerning deaths from Covid-19. Illinois's top medical person said on our official update that "Anyone dying in a hospital that tests positive for Covid-19 will be counted as dying from Covid-19; even if they died from a heart attack, cancer, whatever".
The reason is if that person is on Medicare and dies in a hospital from pneumonia related symptoms, hospital's get an average of $5000. If they die from pneumonia and test positive for Covid-19, they get $13,000. If they are placed on a ventilator, the hospital gets $39,000. Gee, wonder why all the hospitals demanded more ventilators?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

According to this fact checked article, no wonder Covid-19 numbers are high. On our local news a Dr was quoted saying an auto accident victim presented in the ER DOA. (dead on arrival). Was tested positive, so counted as dying from Covid-19.
I also heard on TV there is an investigation starting to find out how many actually died from Covid-19, and not from other causes.
Will be interesting to hear the facts..if they ever come out.

toxdoc42

robertjerl wrote:

Ah, but in several different places they have star... (show quote)

having worked in hospitals for nearly 50 years, it is true that they try to upgrade the illnesses so as to maximize the re-imbursement rates, the primary cause of death, however, has to make sense. use of death certificate diagnoses has been known to be less than ideal, but no self-respecting physician would do what you suggest, and, if caught the hospital and the physician could face charges, potentially be fined a considerable amount as well as other censure activity.

toxdoc42

chrissybabe wrote:

If this was referring to the article from me just ... (show quote)

We will all have to agree to disagree. I heard Fauci state that there is a lot that he doesn't understand about the virus, that we are early in the course of learning about this virus. The bottom line is that it is more infectious than anyone thought at the very beginning, is more lethal, has more potential for harm. Will we continue to learn about it, absolutely, will there be an easy answer to all of the questions being raise, absolutely not. Let us HOPE that an immunization can be found that prevents it, and let us hope that we learn from this experience and NEVER let our guard down again. There are lots of paralelles drwawn between this outbreak and war. There were lots of warnings that a pandemic would eventually arise and we needed to be prepared, the bottom line, we weren't!

Xinloi6870

toxdoc42 wrote:

We will all have to agree to disagree. I heard Fa... (show quote)

You lost me at Fauci.

Cykdelic Loc: Now outside of Chiraq & Santa Fe, NM

Rongnongno wrote:

The news on that side is better.

When I first posted it was 2 out of 5 (40%) dying. Now it is 1 out of 4 (24%), a better odd still the world ratio is lower 16%.

Ever so slowly the survival ratio is creeping up. This not really good news a it means we are still looking at 71,500 more deaths, not including new cases.

R,

Your numbers are confusing.....are you saying 1 out of 4 who gets the virus die? If so that is clearly incorrect.

Cykdelic Loc: Now outside of Chiraq & Santa Fe, NM

timcc wrote:

I have to agree with robertjeri on the counts. The... (show quote)

Many/most of the states have changed to presumptive deaths (ie no need for testing of the dead.....did they have the symptoms)....this explains many of the lump sum adds in some areas such as NYC.