Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

DPullum,

The typical flu season in the USA lasts from October to March, but may last into May; six months, but could be up to eight months long and not 12 months.

From the CDC: "In the United States, flu season occurs in the fall and winter. While influenza viruses circulate year-round, most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, but activity can last as late as May.

www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Jerryc41,

The difficulty with this graph is that the numbers of COVID-19 deaths is not accurate, and never has been. This is due to the differences in how these deaths are counted. In the last two weeks, many health jurisdictions began reporting as a COVID-19 death anyone who has died and either had the virus infection or exhibited symptoms of the virus and not that the person actually died from COVID-19. For example, if a person dies of a heart attack, and someone said that person had a fever and a headache, the death was counted as COVID-19 and not as a heart attack.

Another issue with the numbers is that other people have been found dead and are not reported as COVID-19 because the remains were not tested. Therefore we have to take these numbers with a grain of salt rather than as definitive number with a high confidence level in its accuracy.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

BurghByrd,

The issue with the R_0 being pegged at 3.5 is that it is merely a guess. A broad assumption. And that assumption is NOT a very good one because of the large amount of uncertainty associated with it. The confidence level with the models using it is extremely low and that makes the results relatively useless to rely upon. That is why the model outputs have not reflected reality yet.

According to Peter Attia MD, who works with many models, "even the smallest changes in the virus’s reproductive number, R_0, altered the outcome in seismic ways. For example, using the default parameters in place, simply changing the R_0 from 2.3 to 2.4 triples the projected number of infected people from 10 million to 30 million. Think about that for a second. A seemingly negligible increase in the per-person rate of transmission leads to a 3x difference in total infections! (According to the model, anyway.) And what if you assume R_0 is a “mere” 2.1 (still a very contagious virus, by the way)? Fewer than 1 million Americans could expect to be infected. Tiny changes in inputs make the difference between a catastrophe and a minor speed bump. As someone who used to make a living building models—and as someone who has been humbled by them (albeit for mortgage defaults, not pandemics)—I can tell you that when you have a model that behaves this way, you need to be even more cautious than you otherwise would, and should, be with any model."

You can read his entire article (a really good explanation) at https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/

Daryl

Stephan G

Reminded me about reading the numbers of deaths as being "due to natural causes".

For consideration: "The History of Germs. The history of germs began when germ theory was developed, proved, and popularized in Europe and North America between about 1850 and 1920. Before that time, people believed that foul odors could create disease or that evil spirits could cause a person to become ill.Dec 14, 2017"

btbg

You are not even close to right on the mortality rate of Covid-19. The flu numbers use the estimated number of people who had the flu but did not go to the doctor. The numbers you are citing for Covid-19 only count confirmed cases. That raises the mortality rate probably by a factor of 10 if the numbers are even remotely similar to flu cases.

The doctors have said since late February that many people who get Covid-19 are asymptomatic and you and I both know that those individuals are not being counted in your numbers.

btbg

Your argument that my rights end when I do something that hurts your family holds no water. You have the right to stay at home and protect yourself. There is nothing keeping you from doing that. However, my rights were violated when a stay at home order took away my livelihood. So, there are two different ways that people are being harmed by other people's "rights". The simple solution is to let those who want to work and those who are low risk go to work and keep the economy alive while those who are high risk or fearful stay home and shelter in place.

That keeps you safe and it keeps me employed. It is a straw man argument to say that I cant work because doing so would violate your rights.

drobvit Loc: Southern NV

Mom was an RN. Me, 40yrs medical. I do understand your comparison. Personally, everytime I got the flu vaccine (starting with the SwineFlu back in the 70s)...those were the sickest winters I have ever experienced. Without the vaccine, I've done just fine. And, plenty of daily patient contact during my career. As for this bug, I'll take a pass on any vaccine that is developed. My experience has been that my immune system is still "alive and well", regardless of the source of virus. You may argue otherwise but I've got many years of "in vitro" testing under my belt.

Stephan G

You err in your contention. If in pursuit of your occupation you become a threat, Society can intervene. Your "straw man" is based on being outside the Society. As you consider yourself being a member, you are subject to determination as to the effect on the group.

pendennis

I had a somewhat mild case in 1952, and a couple of weeks later my aunt contracted polio, and it left her as a quadraplegic, lacking the ability to exhale. She went through years of "rehabilitation", and the sum total was that the rehab caused problems by overtaxing muscles not affected through overcompensation. Her "second round" came in 1992, when what was left of her breathing, collapsed, and forced her to have a tracheostomy putting her on a ventilator. She lived only five years after that. She also took phenobarbitol for years to alleviate convulsions while she slept.

I was afflicted by loss of muscle mass in my upper body, and reduced breathing capacity by approximately 15%. This was later confirmed by pulmonary examinations at the University of Louisville School of Medicine in 1971. I had my second round in 1995, forcing me to give up golf and bowling because of further loss of muscle mass.

There is also some evidence out there which states that FDR did not have polio. He may have had Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS).

pendennis

I had a somewhat mild case in 1952 (see my earlier post), as did my aunt have a nearly fatal case. I had post-polio syndrome in 1995, my aunt in 1992 (again, see my earlier post).

I volunteered for the National Foundation as did my aunt, and my relatives. I collected thousands of dimes for the cause.

The research according to John Barry, sat stagnant for a number of years, even though it was feared more than the atomic bomb after WWII. Dr. Salk got the research off dead center, and finally isolated the virus creating a dead virus vaccine. I was among the first children in Louisville in 1955 who was vaccinated. Likewise, I was an early taker of the Sabin vaccine.

KenW Loc: Portland OR

That's what I'm believing on the first go around is 250 to 300 thousand dead in the US alone.

cochese

Not sure what it is going to take to get people to understand. IT IS THE MORTALITY RATE!!! According to your numbers for 2017-2018 listed above the mortality rate was .1% that's 1/10th of a percent. Todays global numbers show COVID-19 to have a mortality rate of 6.8%... 68 times higher. And the rate for the US is 5.4%... 54 times higher. If you do the math and use the global rate of 6.8%, over 3,000,000 people would have died!

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

Dpullum, COVID-19 is a SARS derivative; the official name is SARS-CoV2.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

TriX,

The problem with the mortality rate you are using is that it isn't a true mortality rate because we don't know how many people have been actually infected. That number (the denominator) has a huge impact on the percentage you cited. The number you are citing is more accurately described as the case fatality rate (CFR) and not the infection fatality rate (IFR), which is what most folks use in relation to influenza.

The case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 is the number of confirmed positive patients who end up dying of the disease (which is also not an accurate number so far). This number (CFR) is less helpful, because patients with the most severe symptoms (and probable bad outcomes) are more likely to be tested. So by definition the CFR must underestimate the IFR.

If the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 is closer to that of influenza (35 million people infected and 62,000 deaths), then the IFR of COVID-19 (50,000 deaths out of 35 million cases) will be less than that of influenza. Time will tell, IF we do adequate testing.

Daryl

Daryls Loc: Waco, TX

SalvageDiver, your discussion is spot on. Good job!

Daryl