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The Economic Impact Of C****av***s In America
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Apr 5, 2020 09:05:29   #
mas24 Loc: Southern CA
 
The unemployment rate before this C****av***s appeared was good. All my friends, and their teenage sons and daughters had jobs of some type. Teenagers, going to school, had available minimum wage jobs. Work was plentiful in restaurants and fast food restaurants. I remember well, the financial setbacks I went through, along with my friends, who took a beating with 401-k retirement plans, etc., in 2008. Now, here we go again. Job layoffs, means no money. Federal stimulus checks are to be sent out soon. Thank goodness for that. Otherwise, it would be disastrous. There were no stimulus checks to get, during the Great Depression of the 1930s. My father and grandmother, told me how bad it was back then. We will survive though. We just have to get rid of this v***s, to get back, to what it once was. Hopefully soon. Are any uhh members, or family members, friends, that are affected by the massive layoffs?

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Apr 5, 2020 09:08:54   #
Bill_de Loc: US
 
mas24 wrote:
The unemployment rate before this C****av***s appeared was good. All my friends, and their teenage sons and daughters had jobs of some type. Teenagers, going to school, had available minimum wage jobs. Work was plentiful in restaurants and fast food restaurants. I remember well, the financial setbacks I went through, along with my friends, who took a beating with 401-k retirement plans, etc., in 2008. Now, here we go again. Job layoffs, means no money. Federal stimulus checks are to be sent out soon. Thank goodness for that. Otherwise, it would be disastrous. There were no stimulus checks to get, during the Great Depression of the 1930s. My father and grandmother, told me how bad it was back then. We will survive though. We just have to get rid of this v***s, to get back, to what it once was. Hopefully soon. Are any uhh members, or family members, friends, that are affected by the massive layoffs?
The unemployment rate before this C****av***s appe... (show quote)


You seem to agree with all the news reports that have been running 24/7.

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Apr 5, 2020 09:18:38   #
burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC
 
If we survive the v***s p******c, we will survive — and recover from —
the economic nightmare.

Meanwhile, stay safe and trust the medical experts.

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Apr 5, 2020 09:32:43   #
gvarner Loc: Central Oregon Coast
 
The sentiment seems to be that we need to get back to the way it was before this p******c hit. Just remember that "the way it was" is why we’re in this predicament in the first place. And it seems to be that the assumption that such a horrible scourge would never again be released upon the world. Nature always has its ace in the hole. Humans need to realize how the game is played.

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Apr 5, 2020 09:51:37   #
burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC
 
gvarner wrote:
The sentiment seems to be that we need to get back to the way it was before this p******c hit. Just remember that "the way it was" is why we’re in this predicament in the first place. And it seems to be that the assumption that such a horrible scourge would never again be released upon the world. Nature always has its ace in the hole. Humans need to realize how the game is played.


You have that right! If we don’t learn the old Boy Scout motto from this (Be Prepared), then we’re doomed to the insanity of repetition.

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Apr 5, 2020 10:11:11   #
Bill 45
 
gvarner wrote:
The sentiment seems to be that we need to get back to the way it was before this p******c hit. Just remember that "the way it was" is why we’re in this predicament in the first place. And it seems to be that the assumption that such a horrible scourge would never again be released upon the world. Nature always has its ace in the hole. Humans need to realize how the game is played.


When this p******c end, we as a people will not be the same as we were before the p******c.

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Apr 5, 2020 11:15:31   #
Bill_de Loc: US
 
Bill 45 wrote:
When this p******c end, we as a people will not be the same as we were before the p******c.


Speak for yourself on that one. I think most people will look forward to getting back to their old routines. Basically, when the talking heads on the tube turn to something else, so will the general public. That's not to dismiss the hurt that some people are suffering.

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Apr 5, 2020 11:36:43   #
Bill 45
 
Bill_de wrote:
Speak for yourself on that one. I think most people will look forward to getting back to their old routines. Basically, when the talking heads on the tube turn to something else, so will the general public. That's not to dismiss the hurt that some people are suffering.

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What you wrote was said by people after the Civil War; WWI; WWII; and the Great Depression. I not talking about the v***s it self. It about us after the v***s and how that v***s will have change us.

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Apr 5, 2020 12:29:09   #
burkphoto Loc: High Point, NC
 
Bill 45 wrote:
What you wrote was said by people after the Civil War; WWI; WWII; and the Great Depression. I not talking about the v***s it self. It about us after the v***s and how that v***s will have change us.


There is nothing wrong with routine. However, as a species, we need to learn to be better prepared for mass emergencies such as this.

Economists and politicians tend to "always discount the future." Yet from time to time, we are reminded by an emergency that that is the absolute stupidest thing we can do. Proper planning is prudent behavior!

It is true that tomorrow is uncertain. It is true that the past is gone, and all we have is the present. But if we always discount the future due to its uncertainty, eventually, that behavior bites us in the ass, and our present becomes problematically painful, as it is now.

My hope for my kids' generation is that they learn from this and move forward with both eyes opened.

Their emphasis should be on solving the problems and avoiding the severity of impact of a recurrence, blame be damned.

It is harsh to say, but many people who ignore the warnings to self-quarantine and isolate will be k**led or permanently disabled by this v***s. Many whose circumstances prevent their self-isolation will die or be disabled by the v***s as well, particularly in poorer nations where medical services and sanitation are rare.

That's natural se******n at work. Those who don't get sick, and those who recover, will survive to face another threat. The smart, young, strong, and fortunate will survive. The weak, poor, old, and stubbornly ignorant are at risk.

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Apr 5, 2020 12:45:55   #
Bill 45
 
burkphoto wrote:
There is nothing wrong with routine. However, as a species, we need to learn to be better prepared for mass emergencies such as this.

Economists and politicians tend to "always discount the future." Yet from time to time, we are reminded by an emergency that that is the absolute stupidest thing we can do. Proper planning is prudent behavior!

It is true that tomorrow is uncertain. It is true that the past is gone, and all we have is the present. But if we always discount the future due to its uncertainty, eventually, that behavior bites us in the ass, and our present becomes problematically painful, as it is now.

My hope for my kids' generation is that they learn from this and move forward with both eyes opened.

Their emphasis should be on solving the problems and avoiding the severity of impact of a recurrence, blame be damned.

It is harsh to say, but many people who ignore the warnings to self-quarantine and isolate will be k**led or permanently disabled by this v***s. Many whose circumstances prevent their self-isolation will die or be disabled by the v***s as well, particularly in poorer nations where medical services and sanitation are rare.

That's natural se******n at work. Those who don't get sick, and those who recover, will survive to face another threat. The smart, young, strong, and fortunate will survive. The weak, poor, old, and stubbornly ignorant are at risk.
There is nothing wrong with routine. However, as a... (show quote)


No argument from me.

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Apr 5, 2020 13:48:47   #
DirtFarmer Loc: Escaped from the NYC area, back to MA
 
Indeed people will want to get back to their routines, as much as possible. But there is damage being done to the economy. It was strong going in, and it will come out of this, but the damage will slow the recovery. People are being furloughed from their jobs. Some of them will not return (for health reasons or because they found something else to do). Small businesses will be decimated, in spite of promised loans to keep them going. They depend on their people as much as the money. The economy is showing a rapid decline. It will not show a rapid recovery. I think people will be wary of spending money until they feel secure again. Second quarter is toast now*. I would not expect any significant recovery until the fourth quarter (but I'm not an expert and I've been wrong before).

I would not compare this to 1929. That took 2-3 years to go down and a decade to recover (aided by war). In 1929 the market was fueled by speculation and a feeling that things would increase forever. While there are similarities, the market this time was stronger so this is a (hopefully) limited event that will cause a short (hopefully) recession that will start to recover when the cause gets down to a manageable level. That may not be until a v*****e is available, or until broad testing of suppression medications yields results applicable to a wide range of people. Gonna take a year for that at least.

Big loser in this process will be the travel and tourism industry, particularly cruise lines.

*Nothing wrong with toast. This expression should probably refer explicitly to burnt toast instead of just toast.

Reply
 
 
Apr 5, 2020 14:13:16   #
Bill 45
 
DirtFarmer wrote:
Indeed people will want to get back to their routines, as much as possible. But there is damage being done to the economy. It was strong going in, and it will come out of this, but the damage will slow the recovery. People are being furloughed from their jobs. Some of them will not return (for health reasons or because they found something else to do). Small businesses will be decimated, in spite of promised loans to keep them going. They depend on their people as much as the money. The economy is showing a rapid decline. It will not show a rapid recovery. I think people will be wary of spending money until they feel secure again. Second quarter is toast now*. I would not expect any significant recovery until the fourth quarter (but I'm not an expert and I've been wrong before).

I would not compare this to 1929. That took 2-3 years to go down and a decade to recover (aided by war). In 1929 the market was fueled by speculation and a feeling that things would increase forever. While there are similarities, the market this time was stronger so this is a (hopefully) limited event that will cause a short (hopefully) recession that will start to recover when the cause gets down to a manageable level. That may not be until a v*****e is available, or until broad testing of suppression medications yields results applicable to a wide range of people. Gonna take a year for that at least.

Big loser in this process will be the travel and tourism industry, particularly cruise lines.

*Nothing wrong with toast. This expression should probably refer explicitly to burnt toast instead of just toast.
Indeed people will want to get back to their routi... (show quote)


Good point, but to hell with the cruise lines.

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Apr 6, 2020 06:17:15   #
sb Loc: Florida's East Coast
 
I feel sorry for those who were running a small business. Having done that, I know how hard it is to get the business going - and how close to bankruptcy you can be. It will be hard to come back for many of them. We are trying to get take-out several times a week from our favorite small restaurants, and are just hopeful that enough of their regulars will do the same for them to be able to survive financially.

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Apr 6, 2020 06:48:04   #
mas24 Loc: Southern CA
 
sb wrote:
I feel sorry for those who were running a small business. Having done that, I know how hard it is to get the business going - and how close to bankruptcy you can be. It will be hard to come back for many of them. We are trying to get take-out several times a week from our favorite small restaurants, and are just hopeful that enough of their regulars will do the same for them to be able to survive financially.


I'm doing the same, at a favorite family owned Italian restaurant. Take out only of course. But, only one waitress and one cook was working, during a busy before, lunchtime period, it normally has for dining in customers. And, my favorite bartender/waitress is out of a job right now, at a local sports bar near me. She worked there for years. That restaurant/bar has completely closed. They were so busy during weekends, they had five waitresses and two bartenders. All are out of work. I hope, when this C****av***s is over, I can see all of them return to work.

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Apr 6, 2020 08:19:37   #
home brewer Loc: Fort Wayne, Indiana
 
My son has a health field job administrator for 3 group homes and still working 50 hrs plus (no ot); but no longer visiting the homes daily.
My son in law owns his own locksmith company and is keeping his two people working; but less so than a month ago. He is not a busy as he was doing the more complicated stuff. Few businesses are asking for bids on big dollar jobs. In February he was ready to spend $10k on a used truck and hire another employee, yesterday he told me he was glad he did not do it.
Side note, one of the guys working for him part time for Fed Ex and was told 6 days/ week at 12 hrs/day.
so some people are still working

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