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Is the advance of camera technology going to slow at some point soon?
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Aug 28, 2018 18:11:35   #
InfiniteISO Loc: The Carolinas, USA
 
So our IT guy is rolling out new desktops and laptops at work. This happens about every 3 years. Many have noticed that the new machines are pretty much the same box performance-wise as they're giving up, making the swap-grade that much more painful. Now I realize that my coworkers and I, engineers for the most part, are not rocket scientists and we're not working to solve world hunger or cure cancer. We use our computers for the normal engineering stuff: basic CAD, email, minesweeper, etc. The formula the powers that be use to decide how nice of a PC we get every three years appears to be this: "get them the best PC you can for $2000 and spend $4000 on the guy in the corner who does all the crazy stuff.

Now from a camera standpoint, I can't afford to stay on the bleeding edge of technology. Photography is a hobby, after all. I own a D100, a D90, and a D7000, all purchased used. That said, I window shop and dream quite a bit when I'm not playing minesweeper. To me it seems cameras are still breaking some amazing ground. The D7500 and D500 are sports cars that make my D7000 look like a wheelbarrow, especially from an ISO standpoint. Yet the 7000 and the 7500 didn't have drastically different release prices when they were new. So from year to year, at least when it comes to cameras, it seems the same money is still buying better and better technology. I'm sure this the same for every brand and camera type, DSLR, Mirrorless, etc.

I guess I'm just wondering if cameras can continue this crazy space race for much longer. Does anyone think we're nearing the point where a camera made a couple years from now will not be significantly better than one made today? Oh, and one of you wonderful folks who just have to have the latest and greatest may currently own my next camera, so go ahead, trade that well-cared-for baby in.

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Aug 28, 2018 18:36:48   #
SX2002 Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
 
Not only the crazy race but the crazy prices..

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Aug 28, 2018 18:39:17   #
dpullum Loc: Tampa Florida
 
Incremental, until that break thru moment by one of the non-conservative countries that have positive education financing and actually value science. At one time that would have been the USA. Consider how much is imported from far east where digital became king... what happened to Kodak and the first digital camera.

Our onboard computers are miracle workers and yes the sensors have improved. Lenses, approaching 100 years old, improved, yes, but great innovations, slow.

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Aug 28, 2018 18:58:37   #
IDguy Loc: Idaho
 
I feel digital cameras are fast approaching the auto industry level of innovation. Today’s autos transport you the same as 1950s autos. But they have many additional features that improve the experience, from automatic transmissions and air conditioning through adaptive cruise control and auto parking.

But the 1950 model still gets you from point A to point B in the same time.

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Aug 28, 2018 19:09:13   #
rmalarz Loc: Tempe, Arizona
 
Having worked in IT for some years, that 3 year roll could be due to lease contracts. A few companies for which I worked, lease their computers, and peripherals. There is a heavy penalty for returning the equipment late. So, like it or not, the companies which lease equipment have to have that 3 year renewal. One company did that in thirds. Each year 1/3 of the employees received new equipment. Did it look the same, yup. Did it perform the same, pretty much yup. My theory is that the lease companies could sell them at a good price being three years old and recoup some of the money they spent on them above what they made on the lease fee.

Camera companies need to continue to sell to make money. Thus, the newest whiz bang gimmicks are released and the lemmings have to have those new ones. Some of my cameras are around 70 years old. They still work like new. My youngest digital is somewhere around 6 years old. All the rest lie somewhere in between. Do I know what whiz bang new stuff the latest models do? No. I've no interest as I'm not purchasing any of them. I guess I'm immune to GAS.
--Bob


InfiniteISO wrote:
So our IT guy is rolling out new desktops and laptops at work. This happens about every 3 years. Many have noticed that the new machines are pretty much the same box performance-wise as they're giving up, making the swap-grade that much more painful. Now I realize that my coworkers and I, engineers for the most part, are not rocket scientists and we're not working to solve world hunger or cure cancer. We use our computers for the normal engineering stuff: basic CAD, email, minesweeper, etc. The formula the powers that be use to decide how nice of a PC we get every three years appears to be this: "get them the best PC you can for $2000 and spend $4000 on the guy in the corner who does all the crazy stuff.

Now from a camera standpoint, I can't afford to stay on the bleeding edge of technology. Photography is a hobby, after all. I own a D100, a D90, and a D7000, all purchased used. That said, I window shop and dream quite a bit when I'm not playing minesweeper. To me it seems cameras are still breaking some amazing ground. The D7500 and D500 are sports cars that make my D7000 look like a wheelbarrow, especially from an ISO standpoint. Yet the 7000 and the 7500 didn't have drastically different release prices when they were new. So from year to year, at least when it comes to cameras, it seems the same money is still buying better and better technology. I'm sure this the same for every brand and camera type, DSLR, Mirrorless, etc.

I guess I'm just wondering if cameras can continue this crazy space race for much longer. Does anyone think we're nearing the point where a camera made a couple years from now will not be significantly better than one made today? Oh, and one of you wonderful folks who just have to have the latest and greatest may currently own my next camera, so go ahead, trade that well-cared-for baby in.
So our IT guy is rolling out new desktops and lapt... (show quote)

Reply
Aug 28, 2018 19:24:51   #
Apaflo Loc: Anchorage, Alaska
 
InfiniteISO wrote:
So our IT guy is rolling out new desktops and laptops at work. This happens about every 3 years. Many have noticed that the new machines are pretty much the same box performance-wise as they're giving up, making the swap-grade that much more painful. Now I realize that my coworkers and I, engineers for the most part, are not rocket scientists and we're not working to solve world hunger or cure cancer. We use our computers for the normal engineering stuff: basic CAD, email, minesweeper, etc. The formula the powers that be use to decide how nice of a PC we get every three years appears to be this: "get them the best PC you can for $2000 and spend $4000 on the guy in the corner who does all the crazy stuff.

Now from a camera standpoint, I can't afford to stay on the bleeding edge of technology. Photography is a hobby, after all. I own a D100, a D90, and a D7000, all purchased used. That said, I window shop and dream quite a bit when I'm not playing minesweeper. To me it seems cameras are still breaking some amazing ground. The D7500 and D500 are sports cars that make my D7000 look like a wheelbarrow, especially from an ISO standpoint. Yet the 7000 and the 7500 didn't have drastically different release prices when they were new. So from year to year, at least when it comes to cameras, it seems the same money is still buying better and better technology. I'm sure this the same for every brand and camera type, DSLR, Mirrorless, etc.

I guess I'm just wondering if cameras can continue this crazy space race for much longer. Does anyone think we're nearing the point where a camera made a couple years from now will not be significantly better than one made today? Oh, and one of you wonderful folks who just have to have the latest and greatest may currently own my next camera, so go ahead, trade that well-cared-for baby in.
So our IT guy is rolling out new desktops and lapt... (show quote)

Here is what is on the horizon, or perhaps a little beyond.

A 250MP sensor for a Full Frame camera. Sensors with that pixel pitch for at least a 4x5 perhaps larger format. And best of all a full version of PhotoShop or any other software running on the camera.

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Aug 28, 2018 19:30:15   #
Bobspez Loc: Southern NJ, USA
 
Before getting back into photography several years ago I was an amateur microscopist. There are a lot of similarities between buying used microscope equipment on ebay and used cameras and lenses. But there is less similarity to used computers. The reason is that a computer is all digital. Processors and memory continue to provide more for less due to miniaturization. The first hard drive we took delivery on 30 years ago at work for a Sun server weighed 80 lbs, was 1 ft. square by 3 ft. long, had a capacity of 750MB (3/4 of 1 GB) and cost $50,000. Today a 16GB memory card weighs a fraction of an ounce and costs $10. Nothing analog can advance that quickly.

A digital camera is part computer and part lenses. The lenses are the analog part and so don't advance at the rate of computers. Microscopes are all analog and haven't really advanced in 80-90 years (electron microscopes excepted). Digital camera advances are still held back by lens technology. They can get smaller and faster and capture more details, but the picture is still pretty much the same.

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Aug 28, 2018 19:42:46   #
Ched49 Loc: Pittsburgh, Pa.
 
I get what your saying...But your D7000 can do almost everything your D500 and D750 can do, maybe not as fast. It all has to do with "more is better"' more mega pixels, more focus points, faster burst ect. As long as people are willing to pay for "more is better"...the sky's the limit with camera technology.

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Aug 28, 2018 19:44:01   #
Strodav Loc: Houston, Tx
 
Just my personal engineering opinion, but here goes. The main higher tech components of a camera body, the things that really make it work well or not are the sensor, processor speeds, and glass. Yes you can talk pentaprisms, view screen, ... , but these three items are the performance limiting devices. Each are into the incremental improvement technology cycle with processor speeds and lower power requirements are probably still moving up slightly faster than the other two items. Until there is a true breakthrough all you are going to see is incremental improvement.

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Aug 28, 2018 19:58:28   #
MT Shooter Loc: Montana
 
InfiniteISO wrote:
So our IT guy is rolling out new desktops and laptops at work. This happens about every 3 years. Many have noticed that the new machines are pretty much the same box performance-wise as they're giving up, making the swap-grade that much more painful. Now I realize that my coworkers and I, engineers for the most part, are not rocket scientists and we're not working to solve world hunger or cure cancer. We use our computers for the normal engineering stuff: basic CAD, email, minesweeper, etc. The formula the powers that be use to decide how nice of a PC we get every three years appears to be this: "get them the best PC you can for $2000 and spend $4000 on the guy in the corner who does all the crazy stuff.

Now from a camera standpoint, I can't afford to stay on the bleeding edge of technology. Photography is a hobby, after all. I own a D100, a D90, and a D7000, all purchased used. That said, I window shop and dream quite a bit when I'm not playing minesweeper. To me it seems cameras are still breaking some amazing ground. The D7500 and D500 are sports cars that make my D7000 look like a wheelbarrow, especially from an ISO standpoint. Yet the 7000 and the 7500 didn't have drastically different release prices when they were new. So from year to year, at least when it comes to cameras, it seems the same money is still buying better and better technology. I'm sure this the same for every brand and camera type, DSLR, Mirrorless, etc.

I guess I'm just wondering if cameras can continue this crazy space race for much longer. Does anyone think we're nearing the point where a camera made a couple years from now will not be significantly better than one made today? Oh, and one of you wonderful folks who just have to have the latest and greatest may currently own my next camera, so go ahead, trade that well-cared-for baby in.
So our IT guy is rolling out new desktops and lapt... (show quote)


Just wait until Image Panel technology replaces the archaic pixel based sensors we have today, you will be able to take Hubble quality images handheld. And you won't even need hands to use it, everything will operate telepathically via brainwave transmission. lenses will be a thing of the past as the Image Panel will be infinitely tunable! Price? That will mean nothing really, because everything will be faith based and the manufacturers will "trust" you to compensate them at whatever level you feel comfortable with!

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Aug 28, 2018 20:18:09   #
InfiniteISO Loc: The Carolinas, USA
 
MT Shooter wrote:
Just wait until Image Panel technology replaces the archaic pixel based sensors we have today, you will be able to take Hubble quality images handheld. And you won't even need hands to use it, everything will operate telepathically via brainwave transmission. lenses will be a thing of the past as the Image Panel will be infinitely tunable! Price? That will mean nothing really, because everything will be faith based and the manufacturers will "trust" you to compensate them at whatever level you feel comfortable with!
Just wait until Image Panel technology replaces th... (show quote)


Wow, can't wait, but I'll probably hold out for the mind storm 3000. It's going to play back 3D video experiences from my memory. Sort of like day dreaming, only using expensive technology that requires invasive surgery. It's going to be all the rage.

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Aug 28, 2018 20:33:04   #
InfiniteISO Loc: The Carolinas, USA
 
Strodav wrote:
<snip> Until there is a true breakthrough all you are going to see is incremental improvement.


I agree with everything you said. As for breakthroughs though, shouldn't there be some very expensive, state-of-the art tech that's waiting to be made affordable for consumer's at some future date? Labs were playing around with digital imaging well before it was affordable for even Richie Rich and we heard about it well in advance. Is there any amazing new technology in imaging that's out there now, but not yet in a consumer ready device at any cost.

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Aug 28, 2018 20:46:16   #
Strodav Loc: Houston, Tx
 
InfiniteISO wrote:
I agree with everything you said. As for breakthroughs though, shouldn't there be some very expensive, state-of-the art tech that's waiting to be made affordable for consumer's at some future date? Labs were playing around with digital imaging well before it was affordable for even Richie Rich and we heard about it well in advance. Is there any amazing new technology in imaging that's out there now, but not yet in a consumer ready device at any cost.


I have been retired for a few years now, but did spend a lot of time looking at advancements in sensor and processor and storage technology and there were R&D groups and University projects that really extended the capabilities of sensors and processor speeds. Unfortunately, they almost always involve exotic cooling systems sometimes involving liquid nitrogen. They can really extend the dynamic range and reduce noise in sensors, but its just not practical in a hand held device, but some group will eventually come up with a breakthrough making it practical for a newer generation of cameras.

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Aug 28, 2018 21:44:13   #
Fotomacher Loc: Toronto
 
Technology is dead. I shoot with a F5, AI-s lenses, write with fountain pens, and drive a BMW Z3 stickshift. These tools connect me with the real world of expression. And for the 21st century I have a D810, VR lenses, recent computing power and a Tesla model 3 on order. As for the first statement, “just kidding”.

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Aug 28, 2018 21:46:16   #
Haydon
 
Technology will race as long a money is involved. That's the way it works :) Will it offer benefits to those interested? That is something the educated consumer has to weigh and the ones with GAS will lose sleep over.

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