joer Loc: Colorado/Illinois

The smart phone killed the P/S and now the $500 ILC is about to do likewise. You will find the article at dpreview.

A steady climb up camera ladder. What's next.

rmorrison1116 Loc: Near Valley Forge, Pennsylvania

Just another doom and gloom article written by someone with limited understanding of the subject. Point and shoot cameras for the most part have been replaced by smart phone cameras because smart phone cameras are the new point and shoot cameras. Smart phones have not replace other types of cameras because they are not capable of doing what the dedicated cameras can do. Camera manufacturers are getting smarter and realizing they need to put as much emphasis on software as they do hardware. Interchangeable lens cameras will be around for a long time as will high end bridge cameras.

rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA

I put a link to the article in L&R. Please note that this is an opinion piece, praising Apple's latest announced innovations. I'm waiting for a viewfinder and serious telephoto zoom before I'd be willing to agree with the author.

http://www.uglyhedgehog.com/t-479949-1.html

mrpentaxk5ii

It's not going to happen, the smart phones have been getting thinner so the only option that you will ever have will be things that clamp on or slide over the body of the cell phone. I have used cell phones, point & Shoot a canon G15 high end point & shoot and DSLR'S to take photos, the only camera that will make me leave the house in NYS and drive 5 hours north or south to photograph a sun rise on the coast is my DSLR.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

No. The market changes, and will still diminish for ILC cameras, but will find a a steady market equilibrium for serious photographers. There are things that simply cannot be done yet by other technologies, and it will take a long while. Such is the nature of things. P&S cameras are not dead yet, nor are dedicated GPS systems. Try not to believe everything you read on the internet. Anyone can post things these days, but that doesn't mean it makes any sense or is grounded in reality.

larryepage Loc: North Texas area

I've been on this site for not quite two months now, and have gradually been coming to some conclusions about the discipline of photography (pro, artist, enthusiast, 'snapshooter') and about us as practitioners of that discipline. I also think that there are definitely some things going on that aren't necessarily good for any of us, and I think that there are some very concrete things that groups like ours can do about it. As there seems to be interest, I'll be sharing more of those things in the near future.

All these feelings were validated when member mtshooter posted a graph in another thread a week or so ago summarizing the amount of photographic equipment purchased each year for the last few years. The data was alarming to me, because it showed sales of mirrorless equipment as flat and sales of DSLRs declining fairly rapidly. The main concern to me, though, was that the total overall sales of "serious" photographic equipment is declining fairly rapidly. In fact, I suspect that the sales of mirrorless equipment is being held relatively constant mainly by DSLR folks converting to that format, not because of new folks entering.

As a 40 year veteran of the manufacturing industry, I can tell you without question that current manufacturing business models are not based on either declining or flat sales trends. In fact, if either Nikon or Canon were US entities, they would most likely have been out of the market quite a while ago. While the oldest of us on the site may not be around or interested for a long enough time for it to make any difference to us, I believe that some of the younger members may be victims of the declining trends before too much more time passes.

Now...I believe that we in this community are in a position to do something about all this. I don't have it fully fleshed out, but here are some of my thoughts:

1. We all (including me) need to make a special point of welcoming new members.
2. We all (including me) need to be kinder and more patient with new members and with others who ask questions.
3. If there are any questions about #2, we need to take a deep breath and think back to the questions we asked when we were getting started.
4. We all (and this includes me) need to just grow up a little bit and get along. Each group I mentioned above brings something important to the table.
5. Stop the public bickering. To be honest, if I were new to photography, I would not put up with it and would move elsewhere.
6. Recruit somebody. Those who are happy with cell phone cameras don't know they need us. If we lose the snapshooters, we lose the industry. If we lose the new folks, we lose our discipline.

That's enough for now. I'll share more later in a post of my own, especially about the four groups of us and why they are critical to our survival.

Haydon

There is a statement that made sense in the article which is a little alarming to me right at the beginning.

"When friends ask me to recommend a camera, more often than not they say they're looking to take better pictures than what they get from their phone. But what does "better than my phone" actually mean? One of those key differentiating factors has been the "pretty blurry background" effect that an interchangeable lens camera is capable of producing."

Apparently Apple has done a pretty good job imitating it by using two lenses with the 7. This is one of the distinct advantages we have over cellphones and even though most cellphone users don't understand it, they appreciate the OOF and sharp subject matter. This discussion can be perpetuated into other significant advantages we have over them but the list is shrinking. I personally believe most cellphone users print on a minmal basis and what they see is in fact "Good Enough".

Peter, I agree there will always be a need for professionals but the market has several waving and alarming lines that are drawing the products closer together.

The camera manufacturers need to become REAL smart and limit the market share shrinking. Many cellphones are capable of performing tasks, that simply haven't been implement and would be very useful to draw in more interest.

95% of Americans own cellphones in the country and a camera typically is included in every one of them. I understand why consumers say cellphones are GOOD ENOUGH. ILC/DSLR's have to become that much better than GOOD ENOUGH.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

To be real we have to accept that mobile phones are good enough for most people's purposes. That's simple demographics. ILC/DSLR's are already much better than GOOD ENOUGH, and will continue to be so. It's the number of people that want something that is better than good enough, are willing to invest the money, time and effort to be better than good enough that is the problem, and that has always been a small percentage of the population. We saw a huge growth in camera ownership with the advent of digital camera technology, it made things accessible to people that weren't easily available previously. Now they are available as a result of the ubiquitous ownership of smartphones.

This cannot be solved by technology if there is no market need or desire. Where is the better mouse trap? We still have mice, and the second mouse still gets the cheese. Even when it's Christmas and we put Stilton in the mouse traps, it doesn't change the math for us or for the mice.

As Sheikh Zaki Yamani is sometimes quoted: "The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil."

We simply have to deal with change. I expect Canon, Nikon, and others will be fine, but they will need to adapt, and change will be the only constant.

joer Loc: Colorado/Illinois

Just about every major innovation in photography met with initial rejection by the photo elite and smart phones are no different. As they continue to evolve they will displace all but the specialized cameras. I bet some are still convinced that film will out last digital.

BebuLamar

I don't think it's going to die but if it does it's a good thing.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

OK. Why do you say that it would be a good thing?

rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA

All I have said is that my most recent iPhone falls way short of what I need, for example,

(1) no viewfinder

(2) no opportunity for me to exert control

(3) no zoom nor any opportunity to change lens choices

(4) no burst mode

(5) poor focusing during motion

(6) little opportunity for me to control

(7) no swappable memory

larryepage Loc: North Texas area

My smartphone (Samsung Galaxy S4) has swappable memory. No big deal to switch out the microSD card. Also has a user-replaceable battery. I have a spare that I can carry. I believe that later models deleted both of these features.

SS319

The sky is not falling! There was a peak this century - probably as a result of new technology maturing, and we are post peak, yet we are still buying more cameras that 10 years ago.

Why are we declining?
Cameras have achieved a fully functional level of technology
Canon put out a 50 MB sensor, than backed away from it, again proving that we are on a technological plateau
The Canon T7i is only bells and whistles from the T6i - no reason to buy
Cameras are a fairly long term investment, now that the major portion of the camera users group has a camera suitable for their use, we will retreat to a maintenance level
Currently lens technology is catching up with camera, so the money is being spent on lenses - to the detriment of cameras.

At the end of the film camera era, manufacturers experimented with new style bodies I think you will see this happen again.

Camera manufacturers will develop a totally new camera in the next several years and we will re-peak the market. The technology of phone(y) cameras will be incorporated into the next generation of DSLRs

I have noticed at national parks more people with fancier camera taking more pictures than we saw in the 70s, 80s or 90s.

We will be okay

10MPlayer Loc: California

What's ILC? I've been around a while but I don't know the term.