Welcome to the exponential age!
Jun 12, 2016 12:29:14 #
From Linkedin:
Aside from the author’s timing on Health, which the FDA will delay for 5+ years, the timing can be argued, but it is not far off. If you thought the past 10-15 years has been filled with change, most likely the next 10-15 years will be filled with much, much more!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but they followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. This will now happen with artificial intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-15 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far just for basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, and only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018, the first self-driving cars will appear for the public (Google & Tesla already have them, but just are not yet “wide market ready”). Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Won't need as many garages if fewer people have cars, so living in the city may become more attractive as people like being around other people. That won't change.
Electric cars will become mainstream by 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year (2015), more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, however we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of current jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way more than 100.
The world has always had an overpopulation problem within recent history, and all this will make it worse. Technology may grow by leaps and bounds, but human enculturation will not. We will have the same political greed for power and control, others kicking back, and wars will continue. The new technology will be evident in the tools of war, and the death rate could be staggering. Continued overpopulation will make cemeteries unpopular and there will be a push to replace them with something that does not take up space. Or continuing rent will need be paid to stay there.
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
Aside from the author’s timing on Health, which the FDA will delay for 5+ years, the timing can be argued, but it is not far off. If you thought the past 10-15 years has been filled with change, most likely the next 10-15 years will be filled with much, much more!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but they followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. This will now happen with artificial intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-15 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far just for basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, and only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018, the first self-driving cars will appear for the public (Google & Tesla already have them, but just are not yet “wide market ready”). Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Won't need as many garages if fewer people have cars, so living in the city may become more attractive as people like being around other people. That won't change.
Electric cars will become mainstream by 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year (2015), more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, however we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, you blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of current jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way more than 100.
The world has always had an overpopulation problem within recent history, and all this will make it worse. Technology may grow by leaps and bounds, but human enculturation will not. We will have the same political greed for power and control, others kicking back, and wars will continue. The new technology will be evident in the tools of war, and the death rate could be staggering. Continued overpopulation will make cemeteries unpopular and there will be a push to replace them with something that does not take up space. Or continuing rent will need be paid to stay there.
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
Jun 12, 2016 13:41:08 #
docerz wrote:
We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
I'm fairly sure that there are already enough Africans that speak English, because there seems to be no end to them trying to scam me via e-mails and text messages. LOL
Jun 12, 2016 15:47:35 #
Jun 13, 2016 08:11:27 #
Oooook. We'll see. Maybe, maybe not. This reminds me of those articles in the 50's and 60's telling what the world will be like in 20 years or so. Going back and reading them is entertaining. I suppose, though that if this information came from Linkedin, it must be true. 
Jun 13, 2016 08:28:54 #
Not all has to come to pass for it to be interesting, especially to our kids. Ten years ago I would have never dreamed I would be, at age 72, writing this on an iPad.
Jun 13, 2016 11:37:43 #
In one of his books, futurist and visionary and Nobel physicist Michio Kaku predicted a 120 year lifespan by 2030, but said this was a conservative estimate.
When I retired 14 years ago, I expected to be dead by now. Here i am at 80, pretty healthy and actuarial tables suggest that barring some catastrophe, I will live to 96. (Most of those who bring down the life span stats have already died.)
When I retired 14 years ago, I expected to be dead by now. Here i am at 80, pretty healthy and actuarial tables suggest that barring some catastrophe, I will live to 96. (Most of those who bring down the life span stats have already died.)
Jun 13, 2016 12:45:36 #
Earworms wrote:
I'm fairly sure that there are already enough Africans that speak English, because there seems to be no end to them trying to scam me via e-mails and text messages. LOL
You mean to say that those 100's of millions of dollars floating around in the poor third-world country of Nigeria isn't real? Damn! I shouldn't have given them my bank account.
Jun 13, 2016 14:39:36 #
Duckfart wrote:
You mean to say that those 100's of millions of dollars floating around in the poor third-world country of Nigeria isn't real? Damn! I shouldn't have given them my bank account.
I actually know of a guy (dumbass) who fell for one of those scams. I had even obtained some printouts of his email conversations! LOL
He forked up a couple of hundred before he realized it was a scam.
I've sold a few used cameras here locally on Craigslist and I've received some of the most creative lies from scammers in Africa. They will spoof me a text message from supposedly somewhere here in the U.S., their stories are rather creative too. Supposedly they are willing to PayPal me $100 more than the asking price if I'd have it shipped to West Africa. They send you a fake email from PayPal saying that the money has been deposited into your account or some other such nonsense. I always just tell them cash on delivery and I'll meet them here locally.
Jun 13, 2016 17:44:54 #
I still marvel that I can be talking with someone on the other side of the world, go out to the shed, photograph a guitar or furniture part, process the pictures, and post them online and in minuets we are both talking about the same thing.
Jun 13, 2016 17:45:09 #
Tesla builds cars for millionaires. Only a Ford who makes cars for his workers will change the industry. Solar power needs a 400% improvement to put coal out of business. Hilary and Obana are only driving up energy cost. Most of these things will come some time in the 21th century but I don't think many of us will see them.
Jun 13, 2016 17:52:40 #
rkramer1 wrote:
Tesla builds cars for millionaires. Only a Ford who makes cars for his workers will change the industry. Solar power needs a 400% improvement to put coal out of business. Hilary and Obana are only driving up energy cost. Most of these things will come some time in the 21th century but I don't think many of us will see them.
Technology always wins. Where I live, in S.E. Queensland, solar is so popular the power generators are constantly bumping prices to maintain profits. Those without solar are at a disadvantage. Simple economics is driving change for investors and consumers.
Jun 27, 2016 15:36:24 #
interesting , todays headlines mention that 3d printers never made it as big as expected, and are a toy in many homes.
Jun 28, 2016 11:36:54 #
bdk wrote:
interesting , todays headlines mention that 3d printers never made it as big as expected, and are a toy in many homes.
First thing you should always remember, believe NOTHING that is delivered through the media. They are no longer journalists. They've become novelists.
Jun 28, 2016 11:43:07 #
docerz wrote:
From Linkedin: br br Aside from the author’s timi... (show quote)
Fascinating! My mother was always amazed that she'd seen some of the first automobiles, airplanes and the Hindenburg just before it crashed in NJ, radio, TV, telephones, and the advent of computers just blew her away with their ability to give you instantaneous information that you would have formerly spent hours, if not days, trying to find in the local library. From the Wright Bros. to moon landings was mind boggling to her.
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