Mac Loc: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia now Hernando Co. Fl.

Mac Loc: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia now Hernando Co. Fl.

BebuLamar

Digital cameras are not perishable and consumable items like film! In fact I am concerned about that they don't make film any more rather than what kind of digital cameras they are going to make or don't make.

Dan R Loc: Way Way Way Upstate NY

The day a wedding photographer shows up with an IPHONE, well know the end has come.... :)

BebuLamar

Why? Does it matter?
All these things about camera sales and smart phones sales etc.. has nothing to do with photography. We all have cameras so why do the market makes any difference? Unless you invest in camera manufacturers stock or something none of these has any importance.

xt2 Loc: British Columbia, Canada

I sincerely hope you don't feel the analysis to be "doom & gloomy." The analytics were not designed to evoke personal emotion or passion, simply a reflection of current market trends. It is a mathematically true reflection of current sales trends over a measured time frame. I am not forecasting so much as reflecting consumer purchasing trends. Who knows, a new and improved product may rise from the "ashes" and become the new D850 or what have you. Thanks for your opinions on our new reality...

xt2 Loc: British Columbia, Canada

It might if you owned a Samsung NX1... Or wished to find parts, & accessories, etc. for a current Samsung. The real point being if this market trend continues on its current slope others may follow suit. Having said this, the big guns will survive methinks, notwithstanding cutbacks and layoffs. Hopefully, they will adapt to the consumer's needs to maintain market share.

xt2 Loc: British Columbia, Canada

Here is a chart with details you might find interesting re: your earlier enquiry.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

It's simply poor analysis given the time scales and trends on how markets evolve. The mathematics may be there in the numbers, but the market interpretation is overly simplistic, especially in the transitional market that we are in currently. As Yogi Berra said, — 'It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.'

As you say, "I am not forecasting so much as reflecting consumer purchasing trends." Standing on the back of the train, looking backwards, is not a very effective way of looking at what lies ahead. It's easier to do if you have information about company roadmaps, also technology innovation, and socio-demographic trends, and even then it is tricky to call the shots accurately. Those that have that information are usually bound by confidentiality agreements. It is both a science and an art, there are few that do it well, and they don't usually do it for free.

You might want to start by examining your market taxonomy and market models. Then forecasting becomes much more interesting once you have a good historical market model and can actually model your assumptions and take new trends in account. History is easy. What are your assumptions about the nature of the future market? What are your sources for that information?

SteveR Loc: Michigan

A fb friend of mine posted photos taken at the hockey game at the college where he teaches. The images were sharp and bright, so I asked him what camera he was using, since it might answer some of the problems UHH members were having with indoor sports. It was his iPhone. That may be your answer right there. The images being produced by the best phones are rivaling DSLR's, and many people today are viewing their photos are computer alone. However, my daughter, who has been taking photos of her kids with phones wants a DSLR to take better photos, despite the fact that hers are pretty darn good.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

2013/ 2014 is very old trend data given how the market is changing. We are heading into 2018, and four years is a very, very long time in a transitional technology market. Expecially one as complicated as the camera market. You should at least be looking at the quarterly data, and you also need to consider regional data, since the trends are very different between the Americas, Europe, Asia, Japan and the rest of the world.

Some of this information is freely available, but not enough to forecast the market reliably.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

An excellent observation Steve about the changing market demographics. Things like that do not show up in historical shipment numbers until the train has not only left the station but is in a different state!

Season's Greetings, by the way. Have a Cool Yule!

Attached file:
(Download)

tdekany Loc: Oregon

xt2 Loc: British Columbia, Canada

Petreff, I think you are overthinking my analysis a bit. Of course future marketing plans are based on many things, however, one of those is always the past history. As I said, I am not forecasting but analysing current and past purchasing and manufacturing trends. However, I welcome your follow-up with these great ideas and look forward to your "seasoned" & thoroughly researched report.

Cheers!

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

Getting the information is the tricky part, but you make an excellent point, Thomas. If I had the data then I could run that analysis very easily. The challenge is getting the data, especially that which is consistent across many decades and multiple data sources, reliable and can be conjoined dependably. It can be done, but as said earlier, it is a both a science and an art.