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Camera Sales & the Demise of Our Hobby??? A Short Study of the Full Frame/Mirrorless/Smartphone & the Point & Shoot Dilemma
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Dec 10, 2017 13:01:46   #
xt2 Loc: British Columbia, Canada
 
Camera sales are revealing.

In 2010, there were 8 times more DSLRs than Mirrorless. In 2016, the numbers evened out but dropped for both, with 12 million DSLRs and 11 million Mirrorless cameras. Apparently, Nikon is solely focusing on the DSLR market. Not sure about Canon, however, in the DSLR market Sony has relegated Nikon to 3rd. place behind Sony at #2 and the reigning champ, Canon.

The DSLR market share is taking a beating. The Mirrorless promise of market dominance likewise. The interchangeable lens DSLR/Mirrorless market is falling off. In 2016 there has been a significant drop in those camera sales of 12%, yes, in a single year! Total cameras manufactured dropped a startling 35% in 2016 alone. Between 2013 and 2016 Mirrorless camera production fell off 4% and DSLR sales with over four times as much at 17%.

The entire camera market (DSLR/Mirrorless & non-interchangeable lens cameras) took an astounding hit of 81% (from 121 million to 23 million) between 2010 and 2016. This number is reflective a massive drop in non-interchangeable lens camera manufacturing due to poor sales with the DSLR/Mirrorless sales remaining pretty steady over the same time frame. Having said this, the Mirrorless component has not really kept up with its promise of market domination and enjoyed only marginal gains over that time frame.

Compared to 2015, in 2016 there was 35% drop in shipped cameras, which is pretty significant. There is also 12% decrease in shipped lenses. Market share over this time frame indicates DSLR sales at 21% vs Mirrorless at 5% in 2013 vs. DSLR at 34% and Mirrorless with 13% in 2016. Clearly, the market for cameras is being hit hard by the upcoming "runt" of the litter, the smartphone.

Other issues impact on this fall from grace for the DSLR/Mirrorless camera contingent. Smartphones are winning the battle with better technology with every new generation. Young people are attracted to smartphone technology and portability and are much less enamoured of single-use cameras. To be clear, it isn't cool to be seen with a camera. It is difficult to identify empirical evidence, however, aside from professionals, the younger generation isn’t generally interested in cameras. They prefer using their smartphones for taking photos. This is not the case only when taking snapshots, but even at the point when they actually get really interested in photography.

The DSLR market is shrinking. This is quite obvious, but contrary to common opinion, it’s not only because of the rise of the Mirrorless. It’s likely a combination of several reasons. With smartphone sales up 5% in 2016 a younger generation is not interested in lugging around a large format camera rig. The Mirrorless market is taking a bite out of the DSLR market, although not as much as was anticipated. The DSLR manufacturers are slower to update technology than either the Mirrorless or the Smartphone makers. Many DSLR owners remain satisfied with their older cameras since the newer models don’t seem to offer cost-effective upgrades.

The future may not bode well for the DSLR market and to a lesser degree the interchangeable lens Mirrorless camera market. It is apparent that camera manufacturers will continue to lose market share and cut jobs and product as a result. Nikon apparently is not even "interested" in the Mirrorless market and is laying off personnel. Recently, Samsung quietly dropped out of the camera market due to the smartphone "killing" their camera sales. I predict there will be more to come in the coming few years.

As the art of photography changes with new generations, increased social media, and improved Smartphone cameras, single-use cameras as we know them will take a huge hit. As sales drop the costs will rise furthering the dilemma faced by major camera manufacturers. If the trend carries on, there could be some significant changes in the market by the end of this quickly fading decade.

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 13:03:06   #
PixelStan77 Loc: Vermont/Chicago
 
xt2 wrote:
Camera sales are revealing.

In 2010, there were 8 times more DSLRs than Mirrorless. In 2016, the numbers evened out but dropped for both, with 12 million DSLRs and 11 million Mirrorless cameras. Apparently, Nikon is solely focusing on the DSLR market. Not sure about Canon, however, in the DSLR market Sony has relegated Nikon to 3rd. place behind Sony at #2 and the reigning champ, Canon.

The DSLR market share is taking a beating. The Mirrorless promise of market dominance likewise. The interchangeable lens DSLR/Mirrorless market is falling off. In 2016 there has been a significant drop in those camera sales of 12%, yes, in a single year! Total cameras manufactured dropped a startling 35% in 2016 alone. Between 2013 and 2016 Mirrorless camera production fell off 4% and DSLR sales with over four times as much at 17%.

The entire camera market (DSLR/Mirrorless & non-interchangeable lens cameras) took an astounding hit of 81% (from 121 million to 23 million) between 2010 and 2016. This number is reflective a massive drop in non-interchangeable lens camera manufacturing due to poor sales with the DSLR/Mirrorless sales remaining pretty steady over the same time frame. Having said this, the Mirrorless component has not really kept up with its promise of market domination and enjoyed only marginal gains over that time frame.

Compared to 2015, in 2016 there was 35% drop in shipped cameras, which is pretty significant. There is also 12% decrease in shipped lenses. Market share over this time frame indicates DSLR sales at 21% vs Mirrorless at 5% in 2013 vs. DSLR at 34% and Mirrorless with 13% in 2016. Clearly, the market for cameras is being hit hard by the upcoming "runt" of the litter, the smartphone.

Other issues impact on this fall from grace for the DSLR/Mirrorless camera contingent. Smartphones are winning the battle with better technology with every new generation. Young people are attracted to smartphone technology and portability and are much less enamoured of single-use cameras. To be clear, it isn't cool to be seen with a camera. It is difficult to identify empirical evidence, however, aside from professionals, the younger generation isn’t generally interested in cameras. They prefer using their smartphones for taking photos. This is not the case only when taking snapshots, but even at the point when they actually get really interested in photography.

The DSLR market is shrinking. This is quite obvious, but contrary to common opinion, it’s not only because of the rise of the Mirrorless. It’s likely a combination of several reasons. With smartphone sales up 5% in 2016 a younger generation is not interested in lugging around a large format camera rig. The Mirrorless market is taking a bite out of the DSLR market, although not as much as was anticipated. The DSLR manufacturers are slower to update technology than either the Mirrorless or the Smartphone makers. Many DSLR owners remain satisfied with their older cameras since the newer models don’t seem to offer cost-effective upgrades.

The future may not bode well for the DSLR market and to a lesser degree the interchangeable lens Mirrorless camera market. It is apparent that camera manufacturers will continue to lose market share and cut jobs and product as a result. Nikon apparently is not even "interested" in the Mirrorless market. Nikon is laying off personnel. Recently, Samsung quietly dropped out of the camera market due to the smartphone "killing" their camera sales. I predict there will be more to come in the coming few years.

Notwithstanding how many Flikr users post, the "writing" is on the wall. As the art of photography changes with new generations, increased social media, and improved Smartphone cameras, single-use cameras as we know them will take a huge hit. As sales drop the costs will rise furthering the dilemma faced by major camera manufacturers. If the trend carries on, there could be some significant changes in the market by the end of this quickly fading decade.
Camera sales are revealing. br br In 2010, ther... (show quote)

We need to go with the flow unless you want to go back to film?

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 13:14:15   #
OddJobber Loc: Portland, OR
 
Was there supposed to be something new here?

Reply
 
 
Dec 10, 2017 13:16:23   #
xt2 Loc: British Columbia, Canada
 
Oddjobber, nothing new for you, however, there may be a less knowledgeable market out there perhaps? I am sorry if I offended you with this information...

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 13:18:45   #
Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.
 
xt2 wrote:
Camera sales are revealing.

In 2010, there were 8 times more DSLRs than Mirrorless. In 2016, the numbers evened out but dropped for both, with 12 million DSLRs and 11 million Mirrorless cameras. Apparently, Nikon is solely focusing on the DSLR market. Not sure about Canon, however, in the DSLR market Sony has relegated Nikon to 3rd. place behind Sony at #2 and the reigning champ, Canon.

The DSLR market share is taking a beating. The Mirrorless promise of market dominance likewise. The interchangeable lens DSLR/Mirrorless market is falling off. In 2016 there has been a significant drop in those camera sales of 12%, yes, in a single year! Total cameras manufactured dropped a startling 35% in 2016 alone. Between 2013 and 2016 Mirrorless camera production fell off 4% and DSLR sales with over four times as much at 17%.

The entire camera market (DSLR/Mirrorless & non-interchangeable lens cameras) took an astounding hit of 81% (from 121 million to 23 million) between 2010 and 2016. This number is reflective a massive drop in non-interchangeable lens camera manufacturing due to poor sales with the DSLR/Mirrorless sales remaining pretty steady over the same time frame. Having said this, the Mirrorless component has not really kept up with its promise of market domination and enjoyed only marginal gains over that time frame.

Compared to 2015, in 2016 there was 35% drop in shipped cameras, which is pretty significant. There is also 12% decrease in shipped lenses. Market share over this time frame indicates DSLR sales at 21% vs Mirrorless at 5% in 2013 vs. DSLR at 34% and Mirrorless with 13% in 2016. Clearly, the market for cameras is being hit hard by the upcoming "runt" of the litter, the smartphone.

Other issues impact on this fall from grace for the DSLR/Mirrorless camera contingent. Smartphones are winning the battle with better technology with every new generation. Young people are attracted to smartphone technology and portability and are much less enamoured of single-use cameras. To be clear, it isn't cool to be seen with a camera. It is difficult to identify empirical evidence, however, aside from professionals, the younger generation isn’t generally interested in cameras. They prefer using their smartphones for taking photos. This is not the case only when taking snapshots, but even at the point when they actually get really interested in photography.

The DSLR market is shrinking. This is quite obvious, but contrary to common opinion, it’s not only because of the rise of the Mirrorless. It’s likely a combination of several reasons. With smartphone sales up 5% in 2016 a younger generation is not interested in lugging around a large format camera rig. The Mirrorless market is taking a bite out of the DSLR market, although not as much as was anticipated. The DSLR manufacturers are slower to update technology than either the Mirrorless or the Smartphone makers. Many DSLR owners remain satisfied with their older cameras since the newer models don’t seem to offer cost-effective upgrades.

The future may not bode well for the DSLR market and to a lesser degree the interchangeable lens Mirrorless camera market. It is apparent that camera manufacturers will continue to lose market share and cut jobs and product as a result. Nikon apparently is not even "interested" in the Mirrorless market. Nikon is laying off personnel. Recently, Samsung quietly dropped out of the camera market due to the smartphone "killing" their camera sales. I predict there will be more to come in the coming few years.

Notwithstanding how many Flikr users post, the "writing" is on the wall. As the art of photography changes with new generations, increased social media, and improved Smartphone cameras, single-use cameras as we know them will take a huge hit. As sales drop the costs will rise furthering the dilemma faced by major camera manufacturers. If the trend carries on, there could be some significant changes in the market by the end of this quickly fading decade.
Camera sales are revealing. br br In 2010, ther... (show quote)


That's one perspective, or analyst view point. Technology changes, markets change, demographics change, even social mores change slowly.

I agree that there are significant changes happening in the market, and that there will be more significant changes, but it is always thus. The changes, the impact of the changes, and the time scale when the changes occur are a lot harder to predict.

I disagree with the analysis in this post, although the observations are valid enough. One of the biggest issues is that smartphones *are actually cameras*, they're just a different form factor and much better aligned with current lifestyles and social / online demographics.

Oh, and by the way, I make my living as a technology industry analyst! Wanna talk about quantum computing?

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 13:20:19   #
bsprague Loc: Lacey, WA, USA
 
There was a huge boom in the market when film switched to digital. Once demand was filled with digital bodies and lenses, the economy burped while cell phone capability improved. The downslide in camera sales was predictable and economically natural. It is returning to an equilibrium comparable to before the digital boom.

In other words, you will continue to have good cameras to buy for a long time.

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 13:20:41   #
Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.
 
OddJobber wrote:
Was there supposed to be something new here?





Reply
 
 
Dec 10, 2017 13:21:42   #
bsprague Loc: Lacey, WA, USA
 
Peterff wrote:
....

Oh, and by the way, I make my living as a technology industry analyst! Wanna talk about quantum computing?


That sounds like fun! What does one of those do?

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 13:31:28   #
Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.
 
bsprague wrote:
That sounds like fun! What does one of those do?


Gets paid money for expressing opinions that people use to make business decisions. Of course, people have to believe that your opinion is well informed and valid, and passes the test of time, so there is a significant amount of work in the market research, data collection, and comparative analysis of how the market behaves, but other than that it's just one big party!

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 14:02:48   #
G Brown Loc: Sunny Bognor Regis West Sussex UK
 
Technology nearly always shrinks the market. It generally cheapens the output too. We have seen that in the music/film industry and even in the car industry. People want 'easy' not 'quality'.
We will soon get to the point of having 'a choice'. Take it or leave it...!

The world is getting smaller...what isn't unique....is getting 'idiot proofed' or 'safer' so that the masses can use it.

hey ho!

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 14:04:45   #
rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA
 
xt2 wrote:
Camera sales are revealing.

In 2010, there were 8 times more DSLRs than Mirrorless. In 2016, the numbers evened out but dropped for both, with 12 million DSLRs and 11 million Mirrorless cameras. Apparently, Nikon is solely focusing on the DSLR market. Not sure about Canon, however, in the DSLR market Sony has relegated Nikon to 3rd. place behind Sony at #2 and the reigning champ, Canon.

The DSLR market share is taking a beating. The Mirrorless promise of market dominance likewise. The interchangeable lens DSLR/Mirrorless market is falling off. In 2016 there has been a significant drop in those camera sales of 12%, yes, in a single year! Total cameras manufactured dropped a startling 35% in 2016 alone. Between 2013 and 2016 Mirrorless camera production fell off 4% and DSLR sales with over four times as much at 17%.

The entire camera market (DSLR/Mirrorless & non-interchangeable lens cameras) took an astounding hit of 81% (from 121 million to 23 million) between 2010 and 2016. This number is reflective a massive drop in non-interchangeable lens camera manufacturing due to poor sales with the DSLR/Mirrorless sales remaining pretty steady over the same time frame. Having said this, the Mirrorless component has not really kept up with its promise of market domination and enjoyed only marginal gains over that time frame.

Compared to 2015, in 2016 there was 35% drop in shipped cameras, which is pretty significant. There is also 12% decrease in shipped lenses. Market share over this time frame indicates DSLR sales at 21% vs Mirrorless at 5% in 2013 vs. DSLR at 34% and Mirrorless with 13% in 2016. Clearly, the market for cameras is being hit hard by the upcoming "runt" of the litter, the smartphone.

Other issues impact on this fall from grace for the DSLR/Mirrorless camera contingent. Smartphones are winning the battle with better technology with every new generation. Young people are attracted to smartphone technology and portability and are much less enamoured of single-use cameras. To be clear, it isn't cool to be seen with a camera. It is difficult to identify empirical evidence, however, aside from professionals, the younger generation isn’t generally interested in cameras. They prefer using their smartphones for taking photos. This is not the case only when taking snapshots, but even at the point when they actually get really interested in photography.

The DSLR market is shrinking. This is quite obvious, but contrary to common opinion, it’s not only because of the rise of the Mirrorless. It’s likely a combination of several reasons. With smartphone sales up 5% in 2016 a younger generation is not interested in lugging around a large format camera rig. The Mirrorless market is taking a bite out of the DSLR market, although not as much as was anticipated. The DSLR manufacturers are slower to update technology than either the Mirrorless or the Smartphone makers. Many DSLR owners remain satisfied with their older cameras since the newer models don’t seem to offer cost-effective upgrades.

The future may not bode well for the DSLR market and to a lesser degree the interchangeable lens Mirrorless camera market. It is apparent that camera manufacturers will continue to lose market share and cut jobs and product as a result. Nikon apparently is not even "interested" in the Mirrorless market and is laying off personnel. Recently, Samsung quietly dropped out of the camera market due to the smartphone "killing" their camera sales. I predict there will be more to come in the coming few years.

As the art of photography changes with new generations, increased social media, and improved Smartphone cameras, single-use cameras as we know them will take a huge hit. As sales drop the costs will rise furthering the dilemma faced by major camera manufacturers. If the trend carries on, there could be some significant changes in the market by the end of this quickly fading decade.
Camera sales are revealing. br br In 2010, ther... (show quote)

Do we have any information about film camera sales twenty or thirty years ago? My sense is that what ILC users remain change cameras more often now than we did during the film age, because during the film age you could update by just changing what type of film you used.

Reply
 
 
Dec 10, 2017 14:12:09   #
BebuLamar
 
I already have the camera I want so whatever happens in the future is irrelevant to me.

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 14:17:03   #
rmorrison1116 Loc: Near Valley Forge, Pennsylvania
 
Yet another doom and gloomer heard from. Why do people keep posting these quasi meaningless articles?!

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 14:44:37   #
Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.
 
rehess wrote:
Do we have any information about film camera sales twenty or thirty years ago? My sense is that what ILC users remain change cameras more often now than we did during the film age, because during the film age you could update by just changing what type of film you used.


The information is available, its reliability may be open to question, but it isn't generally available for free.

Reply
Dec 10, 2017 15:11:38   #
Mac Loc: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia now Hernando Co. Fl.
 
xt2 wrote:
Camera sales are revealing.

In 2010, there were 8 times more DSLRs than Mirrorless. In 2016, the numbers evened out but dropped for both, with 12 million DSLRs and 11 million Mirrorless cameras. Apparently, Nikon is solely focusing on the DSLR market. Not sure about Canon, however, in the DSLR market Sony has relegated Nikon to 3rd. place behind Sony at #2 and the reigning champ, Canon.

The DSLR market share is taking a beating. The Mirrorless promise of market dominance likewise. The interchangeable lens DSLR/Mirrorless market is falling off. In 2016 there has been a significant drop in those camera sales of 12%, yes, in a single year! Total cameras manufactured dropped a startling 35% in 2016 alone. Between 2013 and 2016 Mirrorless camera production fell off 4% and DSLR sales with over four times as much at 17%.

The entire camera market (DSLR/Mirrorless & non-interchangeable lens cameras) took an astounding hit of 81% (from 121 million to 23 million) between 2010 and 2016. This number is reflective a massive drop in non-interchangeable lens camera manufacturing due to poor sales with the DSLR/Mirrorless sales remaining pretty steady over the same time frame. Having said this, the Mirrorless component has not really kept up with its promise of market domination and enjoyed only marginal gains over that time frame.

Compared to 2015, in 2016 there was 35% drop in shipped cameras, which is pretty significant. There is also 12% decrease in shipped lenses. Market share over this time frame indicates DSLR sales at 21% vs Mirrorless at 5% in 2013 vs. DSLR at 34% and Mirrorless with 13% in 2016. Clearly, the market for cameras is being hit hard by the upcoming "runt" of the litter, the smartphone.

Other issues impact on this fall from grace for the DSLR/Mirrorless camera contingent. Smartphones are winning the battle with better technology with every new generation. Young people are attracted to smartphone technology and portability and are much less enamoured of single-use cameras. To be clear, it isn't cool to be seen with a camera. It is difficult to identify empirical evidence, however, aside from professionals, the younger generation isn’t generally interested in cameras. They prefer using their smartphones for taking photos. This is not the case only when taking snapshots, but even at the point when they actually get really interested in photography.

The DSLR market is shrinking. This is quite obvious, but contrary to common opinion, it’s not only because of the rise of the Mirrorless. It’s likely a combination of several reasons. With smartphone sales up 5% in 2016 a younger generation is not interested in lugging around a large format camera rig. The Mirrorless market is taking a bite out of the DSLR market, although not as much as was anticipated. The DSLR manufacturers are slower to update technology than either the Mirrorless or the Smartphone makers. Many DSLR owners remain satisfied with their older cameras since the newer models don’t seem to offer cost-effective upgrades.

The future may not bode well for the DSLR market and to a lesser degree the interchangeable lens Mirrorless camera market. It is apparent that camera manufacturers will continue to lose market share and cut jobs and product as a result. Nikon apparently is not even "interested" in the Mirrorless market and is laying off personnel. Recently, Samsung quietly dropped out of the camera market due to the smartphone "killing" their camera sales. I predict there will be more to come in the coming few years.

As the art of photography changes with new generations, increased social media, and improved Smartphone cameras, single-use cameras as we know them will take a huge hit. As sales drop the costs will rise furthering the dilemma faced by major camera manufacturers. If the trend carries on, there could be some significant changes in the market by the end of this quickly fading decade.
Camera sales are revealing. br br In 2010, ther... (show quote)


Maybe I missed it, but what is your source of your information?
Every couple of weeks there is a doomsday post here about the coming end of the world for the DSLRs. I'll believe it when I see it.
In any case, even if every camera manufacturer in the world stopped making DSLRs, the DSLRs already made will still continue to work.
Besides, I don't buy something just because everybody else is doing it. So the fact that something is up by so many% or something else is down by so many% doesn't really mean much to me.

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