advocate1982

well you might. But it will be an interesting view as the cat chews away on your body

joer Loc: Colorado/Illinois

And the sensor is not any larger than what you find in current smart phones.

wteffey Loc: Ocala, FL USA

I believe the market for advanced cameras is only returning to a more natural level after a decade old boom. Until the turn of the century (2000) not many people were carrying SLR's and multiple lens. Film cameras were a lot of trouble and processing and printing difficult and expensive. Advanced photography in the film era was not something most people were interested in, or could afford. Along came digital photography and suddenly advanced photography became easier and more affordable, boosting the sale of SLR's. People who had previously shown little interest and photography were suddenly carrying SLR's. The bloom is off, however.

jccash Loc: Longwood, Florida

Many people simply are not upgrading unless they want to use there DSLR for video. Example my son uses a Nikon D5100 but is saving for a Sony A6500.

Bill_de Loc: US

As opposed to those who buy the most sophisticated DSLRs that can automate everything right in the box.

Cell phone users are not a separate group of individuals from those that post on UHH. I'll bet there are more DSLRs sold because the ads say it will make beautiful pictures. It doesn't, and the users take pictures that are mediocre at best, safe in the knowledge that the have the best camera.

The attitude that people who use cell phones are necessarily inferior photographers is absurd. Some are, and some are far superior to many who post right here, including me.

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chfrus

Have we not had the same problem's in the film days? The majority of the population went for the instamatic and I remember article's in photo magazines bemoaning this same subject and conclusion.

ralphfr Loc: Long Island, NY

I agree. It seems like the cell phone manufacturers have seen the light and are innovating with much simpler technology. Kind of the KISS principle. Tiny lenses + intelligent software = terrific images to a degree. The SLR folks are just trying to perpetuate their business model selling expensive to manufacture equipment and given their existing capital investment the incentive for change will be hard to swallow.

Personally, I couldn't take a decent photo with a cell phone if my life depended on it. Well maybe if I could afford one with the best possible IS. Wherever the technology leads to I hope someone will consider ergonomics for us old shaky people.

dcampbell52 Loc: Clearwater Fl

People seem to forget that photographers (both amateur and professional) purchase new cameras far more frequently than they do lenses. I have several Nikon (and a Tamron) lenses that will be used far into the future baring a fatal drop or something. All of my lenses will fit all of my Nikon cameras (both older and new) so why buy new lenses if you have lenses that you are happy with. As for cameras, capabilities are being increased or added with each new model and as your camera ages, the newer ones become more likely for purchase. BUT all of my lenses will fit my new camera just as they do my older ones. I have a Nikon D70s, a Nikon D7100, and a Nikon D610 and each lens will fit those plus anything new that Nikon may release. However, some new lenses have better glass, better lens coatings, better apertures, and of course built-in focusing motors that increase the focus speed, sharpness, image stabilization, and sensitivity to light. The question there is at what point to these improvements justify the need to replace a lens you already have or to add to the stable. This is my opinion on why camera sales continue to move forward and lens sales seem to decline. NOW, if you are changing brands (or in the case of some camera makers, models, new lenses may be required in order to work on a particular camera). Nikon's entry level cameras (D3XXX and D5XXX) REQUIRE lenses with the focus motor (SWM or Silent Wave Motor) built into the lens in order to auto focus. Older (non-SWM) lenses will work but must be focused manually. In the case of Nikon, the advantage of the build-in focus motor is faster focusing while shooting and the lenses work on many of the older model cameras as well. ( I know they work on the Nikon D7100 but I'm not sure about the D7000 and I'm very sure that the SWM lens will NOT auto focus on the D70s.

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

Very well said. The demographics, the tech, the tools, and so on are changing. The essentials of good photography not so much.

The result matters, the rest is either academic or puerile.

Kmgw9v Loc: Miami, Florida

"You can't stop what's coming."

Peterff Loc: O'er The Hills and Far Away, in Themyscira.

You can if you are big enough. Simple Newtonian physics. Problem is that we're not big enough.

Splat! Time to clean us off the windshield!

tomad Loc: North Carolina

Part of the problem may be the complexity of learning to use modern digital cameras. I had 4 SLR bodies and a bag full of lenses that I bought in the 70's and used through the 90's. They were manual cameras. To shoot you chose the aperture or the shutter speed every time and used a needle in the through the lens viewfinder to match them up in an acceptable exposure. Focus was manual. Apart from that there was little you could manipulate. Todays SLR's have a menu of items that takes ten minutes to scroll through and require a college course to understand how to use. Only the most avid photographers will make the effort to learn to use one properly. They are not a camera for the masses.

tomcat

It primarily is cell phones that is causing the decline. Amateurs are not buying those intro point-and-shoot cameras and lenses now at the same rate as 4-5 years ago. I was at the science museum with my grandson last week and taking pictures of him interacting with some hands-on stuff. The museum staffer told me that "I don't see many of those anymore", referring to my D750/wide-angle lens. I told him "yeah, all I see today are cell phones" and he nodded. We both talked about the slow demise of quality DSLR images today and he relayed that many of the shots taken are selfies going to FB and moms with their cellphones. Following our conversation, I started being more observant and I did not see another DSLR camera anywhere in the museum. A few years ago, my wife and I were in New Orleans and we photographed one of the those mimes posing as a statue. I looked back over my shoulder and there was only 1 other 35mm camera being used. The other 8-10 tourists were using the flip versions of cell phones and this was around 2007!! So even then, the handwriting was on the wall.

Hodgepodgerama

I think you might be asking the wrong question. If you look at the history of professional cameras, I'm sure the same type of question was asked as the formats, tools and technology changed over the last 140 years or so. (Remember when you had to actually change an aperture or focus a lens?) The 20 year old professional DSLR evolved from and shares a basic form factor with the 100+ year old SLR and was created that way on purpose to make professional users more comfortable and to allow the use of existing lenses. But both lens and camera technology has changed a great deal in the 18 years since the Nikon D1 was released. Zoom lenses have gotten much better in that time and digital sensors, of course, have improved tremendously. The need for mirrors in SLRs has essentially been eliminated, meaning the click sound may soon be as artificial on DSLRs as it is on cell phones. Even the concept of Millimeters on lenses is obsolete because the sensors no longer match the 35mm film format that those references came from. And many effects that used to be created by lenses and settings can now be created in Photoshop.

So as much as I love my DSLR cameras, I wonder if the question should really be "How long will professionals need to continue using DSLR cameras and what will replace them?" At that point, maybe my D7200 will join the Rolleiflex TLR, Hasselblad 500C and F2 and sitting on shelves as display pieces.

Quick edit: I do agree that cell phones can put out some amazing images, but these devices fall into the consumer or convenience category. They are the modern equal to Brownies, Instamatics and Polaroids and not really competition for professional or pro-sumer cameras. If anything, they are probably killing the point-and-shoot market. Anyone who is interested in photography as a hobby or profession will still buy a dedicated camera.

mas24 Loc: Southern CA

I have seen some excellent photos from taken by iPhone cameras. These users take full advantage of what the phone camera is capable of, and produce sharp images. IPhones cameras are going to get better on each upgrade. Whether they will completely put DSLR manufacturers out of business. My opinion is, not yet,