TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

Wallin, I appreciate your aircraft credentials, but you’ve made so many incorrect statements about boats in the general and the accident in particular, that you haven’t demonstrated knowledge about ships or information about this particular incident or the effect of wind age on large slab sided vessels. You have implied that the boat was operating at an unsafe speed, that the design of the vessel was foolish, that the boat made a sharp turn, that the crew may have been at fault and that wind doesn’t blow boats around. None of these things are correct or jibe with the facts. You said:

“As previously mentioned, 8 knots may be the limit operating speed for that area. If that is the case, then operating on the limit at reduced visibility and decreasing space is indeed "pushing it".

8 knots is not “pushing it” - it’s the proper speed to maintain steerageway when leaving port and transiting to open waters.

“But reports says they lost control, meaning the redundancy was not there, or the redundancy were all broken too, meaning they were operating a very unsafe vessel.”

The vessel was inspected before leaving port

“Makes one think. Who in his right mind would make a multi million dollar boat that can't be steered once the power is out, and make the steering worked only by one engine? That would be gross negligence on the designer, or gross negligence on the operator/owner of the ship, if they allowed it to travel with only one its system working”

As previously mentioned, and from information readily available, in addition to the main engine, large vessels of this size typically have 3 engines for generating electricity and one spare generator

“As for the captain to overrule the pilot who was managing the emergency, well, the pilot was there for a reason. He was the captain at that moment”

No, he was not. The Captain is the master of the vessel and AlWAYS has the final authority and responsibility. The pilot is there to aid in navigation.

“There is the human factor that can not be put aside. Sometimes, the routine makes one complacent, pushing things to their limit because nothing bad happened. He might have done that speed many times, unsafely and the dice roll just caught up with him. Who knows? Maybe he was under pressure to get to the shore as fast as possible or just getting a bad case of "gethometitis" that he disregard some safety buffers”

“One thing I know, A true professional equipment operator always take many things in consideration, topmost of which is safety. There is always a preparation or adjustments to the prevailing condition. A highway may be marked 100mph, but would you drive that fast in icy road conditions? Did the Pilot knew the ship is being operated without any safety backups for its system? If he knew, would he still run it at the allowed speed limit or would he creep that hulk into the harbor so that an anchor drop could stop it on time?”

Nothing was pushed to the limit, the speed was reasonable and appropriate and no one was going home - the vessel was LEAVING port. No safety buffers were disregarded and from the videos, we know visibility was good. The vessel lost electrical power due to an as yet unknown cause, and as a result lost propulsion and steering control. The vessel was being operated safely - safety and not running aground (staying within the marked channel) and avoiding collisions are always of paramount importance when leaving or entering a harbor.

“Not discussing the wind as it happened at dead of the night which normally have still air,”

As you will see from the images below, the wind at the vessel was 6.4 knots at the time.

“ I do not think the wind was not that strong on that night to veer the ship suddenly to the pillar if that is what happened."
The point there is the sudden course change just seconds to impact.”

Vessels this size do not “suddenly veer”. If you look at the images below of the vessel’s course, you won’t see any sudden “veering” what you are seeing are a number of recorded positions, so what appears to you as a sudden change in position is actually a gentle turn or drift. You’ll notice from the course chart that the course only deviated a few degrees after losing power - consistent with the effects od wind age and current.

“Ships do not necessarily gets blown about by the wind. Sailboats won't tack if that is true”

Ships of ALL sizes are influenced by the wind, especially tall, slab sided vessels like the Dali, and I don’t understand your comment about tacking. Wind is often changing and that goes for tacking as well. Modern sailboats are not blown forward by the wind except when running before the wind. On other points of sail, they are “lifted” by the sail, much like a vertical airplane wing, with the lateral force resisted by the keel.

And finally, since you have aeronautical experience, you should be familiar with this formula which calculates the force generated by the wind against a flat object (which the cargo stack on the Dali is):

The force of wind on a flat object can be calculated using the formula F = 0.5 x ρ x A x V2, where F is the force in Newtons, ρ is the density of air in kg/m3, A is the surface area of the object in square meters, and V is the wind speed in meters per second.

P=1.222. A =16,257 V=2.68. F= 26,600 newtons = 5,958 lbs

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

I was discussing the incident, based on the breaking news.
My local time is different that I was awake and saw it just minutes after it happened.

With reasons, I stand by my words, 8 knots is fast for the situation they are in. It may be the allowed speed for the area, but in the dark and passing through a small gap, that is unwise.
Just like a highway with a 100mph sign, would you go that fast if the conditions are not good, like if the road is iced?

With much traffic & tight spaces, 6 knots or lower is the recommended speed. That hole they are threading through is barely longer than the length of the ship.

8 knots may be their norm and are always getting away with, but it was unsafe for that spot. And that night, the dice roll caught up.


You need to read back and see the context where that word was used. It was not arguing that speed as a limit. Your being blinded by the need to be right in the discussion.

Ask yourself.
8 knots is needed to be able to properly steer the ship? Why design a ship that can only steer properly when it is going at 8 knots? What happens when it had to start from a stand still? Go around in circles first? Meaning your presumption is incorrect. Many ships are actually more maneuverable at lower speeds because they can use other equipments like bow thrusters to augment the main propulsion & steering.


But they still lost control. The redundancy was inoperable.
How am I wrong on this thought that they were operating an unsafe vessel?


Again read the context. That was a sarcastic comment, meaning no one would do such a thing.
The point of contention is a question; Did they know that when needed, none of those back-ups work?
If they did, why did they not take more precautions?


I've addressed that and even thanked you, If such was the correct arrangement because I have a different knowledge about it.


Read it without bias and understand the context.
In that sentence, it was not about a speed to a limit. It was about making a decision or choice.
The pilot is going home after the shift. If that is not clear to you, upon reaching the open water, he would either move another ship or finish for the day and go home. Human factor can be a big thing in unwanted events. But to clarify, I'm not saying that is what happened. Read Again the previous post. Those are questions to a broader line of though.

Now, do you even understand what safety buffers mean? Do you still drive even without brakes because you can see the road?


Precisely my point in my very first post, ships do not suddenly steer. Thats is why I even said, I have doubts it was an accident.
I also mentioned that current will have more effect on the ship than the wind, because the boat is floating on it.

“Ships do not necessarily gets blown about by the wind. Sailboats won't tack if that is true”


Maybe because you already have a preconceived idea and are not really trying to understand my post but is trying do just prove me wrong. Otherwise, I'll take it that you do not really know what you are talking about and have no idea how the wind affects boats and the relation of shape, sail area and the rest of the ship.


And the slab sided ship is not a sail. It would react more like a building than a sail, so everything you said does not apply here.


I would not even go there.
1. It was not a flat object. It is cubic.
2. Air density changes, hence your calculation is missing a correct data
3. You are not considering the center of pressure of the object.
4. You are not considering the Direction of wind
5. You are not considering the Direction of the ship relative to the wind
6. yadda yadda yadda etc.

I said (in my experience) wind is usually negligible at night and if that was the case, it would not a factor. Yes this is more true if the area is inland and you have even confirmed that it does happen especially inland, which I have shown in the map the place was inland.
I am not contesting the effect of wind but stating a common weather condition that can present in the incident. I did say the water current will play a bigger role compared to the wind. If you misread again, it does not mean the wind is not a factor. Only that it is to a lesser degree compared to the others. It may be a big factor? Possible. Only the investigation will really tell.We are just discussing possibilities. No need push our side of the story.

Thanks for the conversation and I'm sorry we just have to agree to disagree.

srt101fan

Thank you for your valiant effort to step into Wallen's fantasy land and try to bring some sanity to his chaotic ramblings. But you must know it is a futile effort. After all, he is so much more knowledgeable than the ship's captain and crew, the pilots that guided the ship out of the harbor, the naval architects and marine engineers that designed the ship, the authors of the many international design, construction and operational rules established by U. S. and international regulatory agencies, and the inspectors that periodically assessed compliance with these rules and regulations. Throw in his expertise in meteorology and all your arguments are useless. Nice try!

clint f. Loc: Priest Lake Idaho, Spokane Wa

👍

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

And thank you for your long and careful response. We will agree to disagree. You feel that the vessel was being operated carelessly and that the windage was not a significant factor. As a serious sailor for almost 5 decades with experience offshore and in the area in question, I disagree.

Cheers.

catskinner Loc: Middle Kansas

The ship was at the dock and it lost power while there two times. They should have been concerned about that before they left the dock. catskinner

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

I believe that in general, cargo vessels are on shore power while at the dock so that they don’t need to keep diesel engines running. I hadn’t read of those outages (how long?), but if so, wondering if it might have been a shore power failure or a blackout while the shore power was being connected and disconnected and the associated switchover.

Just speculating, but the two things I can think of offhand that would take down power from all the main generators plus the emergency would be bad fuel or failed electrical switchboard(s)/switchgear. Eventually, we’ll hear from the NTSB…

SuperflyTNT Loc: Manassas VA

I’m also familiar with the area and I think people not familiar with the area can be easily deceived by that video. It looks kinda like the ship is crossing from left to right and makes a sudden turn into the bridge pillar. The ship is actually on angle that is coming towards the viewer more than crossing and the change in direction was only a couple of degrees. Also Wallen’s assertion that if wind pushed ships around then sailboats wouldn’t be able to tack. That’s exactly why they CAN tack.

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

Exactly.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

Put a sail on a coracle, and have it pushed by the wind. Tack if you can.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

Your misreading my posts as well.
I'm not stating this and that is what happened.
Just discussing the event and clarifying why i have such points of view.

SuperflyTNT Loc: Manassas VA

That just proves what I said and that wind pushes boats around. Tacking is just using that to your advantage by using countering forces, (rudder, keel, shape of the boat), to control the movement.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

The wind pushes but a coracle does not tack does it?
Now you see my point of view. Properly designed boats will not be just pushed around uncontrollably by wind because it was designed to counter those forces.

SuperflyTNT Loc: Manassas VA

Not if it had no power and can’t use the rudder.

Wallen Loc: Middle Earth

The ship was still moving forward. At that point it was a glider and the rudder will still work.