SteveR wrote:
Have you seen how the latest inflation report and the expected impact it will have on the Fed affected today's markets? And, perhaps, your portfolio?
We can expect short term volatility in an election year with lots of geopolitical unrest. Individual investors are scaredy-cats. They'll sell if the Fed burps a phrase like, "We might not cut rates yet." The big institutional investors are buying on the down swings. They know what's really going on is pretty good.
After today, the most volatile third of my portfolio is still up 14% over where it was in early December. It can go down 7% and I'm still fine with it. I could look at my portfolio every day and be a basket case, or simply choose to trust my principles.
Patience is usually rewarded, so I'm playing the long game. Diversification is key. A third of my portfolio is in very low risk accounts. A third is in mutual funds. A third is in growth stocks. When one of my investments is falling in value, another is usually rising. The key is to take out funds at a rate slower than the overall long term rate of return, and to have enough separate assets to offset losses in one with gains in another.
At any rate, the stock market is NOT the economy. It's a sometimes important indicator of economic health, but when businesses are thriving, consumers are spending, and the supply chain is returning to normal. Tier 1 Unemployment is under 5%, which is historically considered FULL employment by most economists. That's actually a challenge when the Fed is trying to lower rates and inflation at the same time. It keeps wage rates high — a good thing for workers — but having more and more workers spending more and more money just inflates the economy.
I wish Economics, Personal Finance, and Civics were required courses in every high school curriculum. What the general public doesn't know about these topics keeps them barefoot, broke, ignorant, and voting for politicians who use them as pawns in billionaires' games. Of course, that's exactly what the politicians WANT, so it'll never happen!
robertjerl wrote:
A few times when the month's bills came out on the light side, I have made an extra $500 or $1000 payment on the principal.
Since we pay 2 3/8% on our principal, it's cheap money. With money markets paying 5% or more, unless you have a high interest rate on your house, you may be better off putting your money into a Schwab money money market. The nice thing about it, if you need it, it's available.
Burkphoto is an economist; i am a retired owner of market research company. The chart that we are commenting on is absurd. I’d be surprised if there was ever a survey to begin with. If there was, the survey writer should be fired. It combines actual experience with the economy (how are you doing?), and the “belief” in the CPI, which are totally different issues.
Clearly, from the comments in the thread, many people do not “believe” the official inflation numbers, and this could be probed further. Everybody has their own experience with prices based on what they are buying, and it would be unusual if any one person experienced exactly the rate of inflation expressed in the CPI composite.
But if people don’t trust statistics in general, this chart is a good example of the cause.
Clark
The volunteer survey was in an investing forum that generally has useful information and as I later said it had very strange groups and was very unscientific.
Talking to friends at the gym I attend that is mainly made up of powerlifters, body builders, runners and very fit people who own small business, work assembling trucks, selling medium duty trucks to furniture tell me to the margin of expenses to income has gone down. The bright spot is a 24 year who sales $100 to $300 K houses who had a Million in sales in January. People are being told company sales are down. Hours are being reduced. These people are not happy with economy.
Wasn’t the old saying what goes up must come down
home brewer wrote:
Clark
The volunteer survey was in an investing forum that generally has useful information and as I later said it had very strange groups and was very unscientific.
Talking to friends at the gym I attend that is mainly made up of powerlifters, body builders, runners and very fit people who own small business, work assembling trucks, selling medium duty trucks to furniture tell me to the margin of expenses to income has gone down. The bright spot is a 24 year who sales $100 to $300 K houses who had a Million in sales in January. People are being told company sales are down. Hours are being reduced. These people are not happy with economy.
Clark br The volunteer survey was in an investing ... (
show quote)
There is a GREAT article in The NY Times today by David Leonhardt, called Four Phases. He describes in more detail, just about the same things I did, above, with better clarity.
Economics, it is said, is a dismal science. It can only measure what has happened, and has seldom proven accurate at predicting what WILL happen. The forces that shape an economy can take DECADES to develop, or an instant to change. The dictionary definition of that is what happened in response to Covid 19.
Consumer sentiment is fragile and fickle and easily manipulated by purveyors of doom and gloom. I've always said I should have majored in psychology, because the science of human behavior is just as good at predicting what people will do as any economic model I've seen.
Yesterday was a down day on Wall Street. Today, people are buying the stocks others sold yesterday. The market is headed upwards again. Remember, the brokers make commissions when you buy or sell. We make money by holding over time and shuffling our decks strategically. "Keep some powder dry" so you can shoot at desirable stocks when the market is down.
A better way to judge the economy is to go go to an aldis supermarket and see how many carts are left in parking lot.(you have to install a quarter in these shopping carts to use one) I remember my mother pushing back 12 carts then going in the store and buying a large bag of m&m candy
bobups wrote:
A better way to judge the economy is to go go to an aldis supermarket and see how many carts are left in parking lot.(you have to install a quarter in these shopping carts to use one) I remember my mother pushing back 12 carts then going in the store and buying a large bag of m&m candy
The Aldi near me usually has one or two loose that some fortunate person left for the less fortunate shoppers. I usually bypass those and put a quarter in for mine.
Grocery prices are wildly different at the different chains here. I shop seven different chains. In rough order from most to least expensive:
Whole Paycheck (Whole Foods)
The Fresh Market
Publix
Harris Teeter (Kroger owns them)
Food Lion
Walmart
Aldi
If there were a Compare Foods here in the Piedmont Triad, I'd be in there all the time. They have the widest variety of healthy produce in the Charlotte area. If we had a Trader Joe's within 20 minutes, I'd shop there, too.
I love Trader Joe’s even though they’re headquartered in Allentown pa there closet store is 35 miles away
clint f.
Loc: Priest Lake Idaho, Spokane Wa
home brewer wrote:
Clark
The volunteer survey was in an investing forum that generally has useful information and as I later said it had very strange groups and was very unscientific.
Talking to friends at the gym I attend that is mainly made up of powerlifters, body builders, runners and very fit people who own small business, work assembling trucks, selling medium duty trucks to furniture tell me to the margin of expenses to income has gone down. The bright spot is a 24 year who sales $100 to $300 K houses who had a Million in sales in January. People are being told company sales are down. Hours are being reduced. These people are not happy with economy.
Clark br The volunteer survey was in an investing ... (
show quote)
I would assume the interest rate for home loans has a negative impact on the housing. My grandson bought a house two years ago but couldn’t make the payments if he bought it today. Our housing prices are bargains compared to the east side of Washington and even here $300k buys a modest tract house, 100 k would be nearly uninhabitable. It is said that the economy is bad if you feel the economy is bad. Most ( more than half) people feel it’s bad right now.
And... As this has hit The Attic, it's time for me to leave.
burkphoto wrote:
And... As this has hit The Attic, it's time for me to leave.
Why?
What is wrong about the Attic?
ClarkJohnson wrote:
Burkphoto is an economist; i am a retired owner of market research company. The chart that we are commenting on is absurd. I’d be surprised if there was ever a survey to begin with. If there was, the survey writer should be fired. It combines actual experience with the economy (how are you doing?), and the “belief” in the CPI, which are totally different issues.
Clearly, from the comments in the thread, many people do not “believe” the official inflation numbers, and this could be probed further. Everybody has their own experience with prices based on what they are buying, and it would be unusual if any one person experienced exactly the rate of inflation expressed in the CPI composite.
But if people don’t trust statistics in general, this chart is a good example of the cause.
Burkphoto is an economist; i am a retired owner of... (
show quote)
I went back to the chart. It may not represent this month's inflationary figures, but I just finished watching the Nightly News which also indicated that prices have actually gone up 25% over the entire course of this inflationary period. I think the chart reflects that fact.
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