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Chip Shortage? Just Wait!
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Jan 6, 2022 19:09:41   #
JBRIII
 
Bloke wrote:
I suffer from hand tremors. The neurologist has ruled out Parkinson's, which is a great relief! He said that there are about 40 conditions which could lead to this symptom, and there is only one lab which performs the analysis. They charge a fortune for it, and the kicker is, there is no cure for any of them when you *do* find out!

It's no biggie... Scans show that part of my brain is melting, but it just means a long, slow decline, which is already happening anyway!


You have my sympathies;
I am a liberal by any name, but fail to understand why anyone spends money developing tests or meds that no one, but multi-millionaries can afford to use or take. I read yesterday of a drug that works as well as surgery for obesity, cost $14,400 per year. My wife says they have to make their money before the patent runs out which I understand, but how can you make money on a drug like that. It would be something like 15% of the median house hold income before taxes and probably much more for older people who may need it. Medicare and insurance do not cover it, so who buys it. By the way, all those new, miracle migraine drugs are in the same class, $1000 per month, who the H are they advertising to? Something just does not add up.

Good luck and best wishes:
Jim

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Jan 6, 2022 22:13:33   #
Bloke Loc: Waynesboro, Pennsylvania
 
JBRIII wrote:
You have my sympathies;
I am a liberal by any name, but fail to understand why anyone spends money developing tests or meds that no one, but multi-millionaries can afford to use or take. I read yesterday of a drug that works as well as surgery for obesity, cost $14,400 per year. My wife says they have to make their money before the patent runs out which I understand, but how can you make money on a drug like that. It would be something like 15% of the median house hold income before taxes and probably much more for older people who may need it. Medicare and insurance do not cover it, so who buys it. By the way, all those new, miracle migraine drugs are in the same class, $1000 per month, who the H are they advertising to? Something just does not add up.

Good luck and best wishes:
Jim
You have my sympathies; br I am a liberal by an... (show quote)


I can never figure out why drug companies spend so much on tv advertising for their products... I mean, they are prescription only, so nobody is going to go out and buy them because they saw the ads!

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Jan 7, 2022 10:17:25   #
JBRIII
 
Bloke wrote:
I can never figure out why drug companies spend so much on tv advertising for their products... I mean, they are prescription only, so nobody is going to go out and buy them because they saw the ads!


I figure it is to get people to ask their doctors about the drug. It certainly worked with us and my wife's migranes, but neither medicare nor our insurance would cover then. At best you need to try every other option first which literally takes a year or more as each new effort takes months. Even one where free samples worked was rejected. We did get one using company coupon at their website. Many such discounts are no longer available from doctors or pharmacies because no one is being visited during Covid.

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Jan 8, 2022 09:25:36   #
jerryc41 Loc: Catskill Mts of NY
 
Bloke wrote:
I can never figure out why drug companies spend so much on tv advertising for their products... I mean, they are prescription only, so nobody is going to go out and buy them because they saw the ads!


I like, "Ask your doctor if Premovactin" is right for you." "Hey, doc, I see there's a new drug available, and I'd like to try it. What's it for?"

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Jan 8, 2022 23:30:48   #
anotherview Loc: California
 
How would a "big solar flare" affect the operation of solar panel installations?
JBRIII wrote:
Want a real worry.

From what I have repeatedly read, there is one company in Japan that makes all the really large power transformers. One big solar flare like that in the 1850's and the electric grid of the US or anywhere else could be toast for months or longer!
Congress knows, has or had a commitee which has done nothing.

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Jan 9, 2022 10:29:36   #
JBRIII
 
anotherview wrote:
How would a "big solar flare" affect the operation of solar panel installations?


The panel might survive, like the physical part of windmills and turbines, but it is my understanding that any modern electronics that are not properly shielded would be destroyed. In 1857? for example, they found they could run the telegraphs by disconnecting the batteries and using the charge build up in the wires from the flare, if connected the batteries were destroyed. It acts I believe like an EMP pulse from a nuclear bomb. I remember when the US obtained a Russian fighter plane (Mig 25?) everyone laughted at first as it used vaccum tubes, then decided maybe that were just smart as vaccum tubes not effected. I believe all modern chipc can be blown. As far as I know, solar cells are chips so probably not good, but certainly all the control ciruitry could be destroyed. The military has shielded their stuff so it can be done, exactly how and cost unknown to me. Like all too many things I know some about this, but anywhere near enough to give more advice. There was an National Geo. issue devoted to it > 10 yrs ago, but I gave mine to one relative to pass to another and the first one lost it.

I have always wondered if given a few days warning we could ground things, wrap in grounded foil, turn off the grid, etc. But I can't imagine any politician giving such an order, the consequences if nothing happened, like the big Aurora forecast a few months back that did nothing, would be unbelievable.
Jim

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Jan 9, 2022 14:25:41   #
anotherview Loc: California
 
Good morning. Thanks for reply.

My solar power installation does have a control panel with electronic circuitry in it. The works of the panel reside in a meatal housing. But a readout and settings device lies outside this housing. I dunno what this exposure means in case of my overall installation. Nor do I know what it means regarding my laptop computer.

This action seems improbable: "In 1857? for example, they found they could run the telegraphs by disconnecting the batteries and using the charge build up in the wires from the flare."

I never heard of transmission wires functioning like a storage battery or a capacitor. The flare itself, however, could induce an electrical flow, I suppose.

Interesting questions on this subject.
JBRIII wrote:
The panel might survive, like the physical part of windmills and turbines, but it is my understanding that any modern electronics that are not properly shielded would be destroyed. In 1857? for example, they found they could run the telegraphs by disconnecting the batteries and using the charge build up in the wires from the flare, if connected the batteries were destroyed. It acts I believe like an EMP pulse from a nuclear bomb. I remember when the US obtained a Russian fighter plane (Mig 25?) everyone laughted at first as it used vaccum tubes, then decided maybe that were just smart as vaccum tubes not effected. I believe all modern chipc can be blown. As far as I know, solar cells are chips so probably not good, but certainly all the control ciruitry could be destroyed. The military has shielded their stuff so it can be done, exactly how and cost unknown to me. Like all too many things I know some about this, but anywhere near enough to give more advice. There was an National Geo. issue devoted to it > 10 yrs ago, but I gave mine to one relative to pass to another and the first one lost it.

I have always wondered if given a few days warning we could ground things, wrap in grounded foil, turn off the grid, etc. But I can't imagine any politician giving such an order, the consequences if nothing happened, like the big Aurora forecast a few months back that did nothing, would be unbelievable.
Jim
The panel might survive, like the physical part of... (show quote)

Reply
 
 
Jan 9, 2022 17:08:27   #
JBRIII
 
anotherview wrote:
Good morning. Thanks for reply.

My solar power installation does have a control panel with electronic circuitry in it. The works of the panel reside in a meatal housing. But a readout and settings device lies outside this housing. I dunno what this exposure means in case of my overall installation. Nor do I know what it means regarding my laptop computer.

This action seems improbable: "In 1857? for example, they found they could run the telegraphs by disconnecting the batteries and using the charge build up in the wires from the flare."

I never heard of transmission wires functioning like a storage battery or a capacitor. The flare itself, however, could induce an electrical flow, I suppose.

Interesting questions on this subject.
Good morning. Thanks for reply. br br My solar... (show quote)


I don't really understand it all, but you are correct that current flow was induced in the wires. Such current then flows into devices. Chips can be destroyed by static electricity, voltage is the enemy. Flares have two components, light which we see in 8 minutes and particles (charged) which arrive days? later. The bigger the flare/ solar storm, the bigger the effect. I believe in 1857 they saw Aurora in Cuba! They make projections, but as seen with big Aurora miss (projected to be seen as far south as southern WV), it is still very inexact. Imagine any president shutting down the power grid, telling people do this or that to protect any thing electrical, etc. for something with a X% chance of occurring. Even with ones much smaller then that in 1857 they disrupt satellites, communications, etc.

Reply
Jan 9, 2022 17:18:44   #
JBRIII
 
JBRIII wrote:
I don't really understand it all, but you are correct that current flow was induced in the wires. Such current then flows into devices. Chips can be destroyed by static electricity, voltage is the enemy. Flares have two components, light which we see in 8 minutes and particles (charged) which arrive days? later. The bigger the flare/ solar storm, the bigger the effect. I believe in 1857 they saw Aurora in Cuba! They make projections, but as seen with big Aurora miss (projected to be seen as far south as southern WV), it is still very inexact. Imagine any president shutting down the power grid, telling people do this or that to protect any thing electrical, etc. for something with a X% chance of occurring. Even with ones much smaller then that in 1857 they disrupt satellites, communications, etc.
I don't really understand it all, but you are corr... (show quote)


JUNE 2012 Nat. Geo. Mag on solar storms and how they effect modern tech about $20 with shipping from their site.

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Jan 11, 2022 11:22:54   #
anotherview Loc: California
 
I have heard of the disruption of solar flares to systems for most of my life. So far as I can recall, no solar flare has lived up to the fear of this phenomenon. Earthly disasters already inform us that we live at the mercy of Mother Nature. I put solar flares under this experience.
JBRIII wrote:
I don't really understand it all, but you are correct that current flow was induced in the wires. Such current then flows into devices. Chips can be destroyed by static electricity, voltage is the enemy. Flares have two components, light which we see in 8 minutes and particles (charged) which arrive days? later. The bigger the flare/ solar storm, the bigger the effect. I believe in 1857 they saw Aurora in Cuba! They make projections, but as seen with big Aurora miss (projected to be seen as far south as southern WV), it is still very inexact. Imagine any president shutting down the power grid, telling people do this or that to protect any thing electrical, etc. for something with a X% chance of occurring. Even with ones much smaller then that in 1857 they disrupt satellites, communications, etc.
I don't really understand it all, but you are corr... (show quote)

Reply
Jan 11, 2022 12:41:54   #
jerryc41 Loc: Catskill Mts of NY
 
anotherview wrote:
I have heard of the disruption of solar flares to systems for most of my life. So far as I can recall, no solar flare has lived up to the fear of this phenomenon. Earthly disasters already inform us that we live at the mercy of Mother Nature. I put solar flares under this experience.


A coronal mass ejection that hit Canada in 1989 caused havoc.

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2021/03/12/the-great-quebec-blackout/

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Jan 11, 2022 15:16:54   #
JBRIII
 
anotherview wrote:
I have heard of the disruption of solar flares to systems for most of my life. So far as I can recall, no solar flare has lived up to the fear of this phenomenon. Earthly disasters already inform us that we live at the mercy of Mother Nature. I put solar flares under this experience.


That does not mean we should not take meaningful precautions if it is possible, which it is in this case.

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Jan 11, 2022 16:32:45   #
mundy-F2 Loc: Chicago suburban area
 
jerryc41 wrote:
A fire at a chip manufacturing plant in Berlin is going to make the chip shortage even worse.

"The blaze broke out overnight on Sunday at a plant in Berlin owned by ASML Holding. Although far from a household name, the Dutch company is the world’s largest supplier of photolithography systems and the only source of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) photolithography machines, which are used to etch circuits onto silicon wafers and create computer chips used by Apple, IBM and Samsung."
- NewScientist
A fire at a chip manufacturing plant in Berlin is ... (show quote)


I waited 6 weeks for my Z6ii to arrive from B&H, but it did arrive a few days ago.
Mundy

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Jan 12, 2022 00:20:05   #
anotherview Loc: California
 
Agree.
JBRIII wrote:
That does not mean we should not take meaningful precautions if it is possible, which it is in this case.

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