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May 26, 2020 14:20:04   #
srg
 
Overall, it sounds very optimistic to me. Evolution at work.

Reply
May 26, 2020 14:48:05   #
bob7fred
 
Day Dreaming! Dream on.

Reply
May 26, 2020 14:49:02   #
dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho
 
1Feathercrest wrote:
You are stupid or extremely unknowledgeable about how electricity is generated or batteries are made. They are a product of fossil fuel burning generation. Your "clean energy use" is second or third hand to the generation of the power and it is with resultant loss of efficient use of such. Windmills? Solar? Hydro is a choice but cannot replace the most efficient which is NUCLEAR. Nuclear electric generation has PROVEN to be the most efficient and SAFEST method of electric generation, so crawl out from under your school desk and come into the present.
You are stupid or extremely unknowledgeable about ... (show quote)


Who are you talking to? Why? Surely you realize this is simply a list of possibilities for the future. Are you looking at all of these as givens? I think you are taking the list too seriously. For the most part you nor I will be around to see any of these completed.

No need to fly into a rage at anybody and sure as hell not me.

Dennis

Reply
 
 
May 26, 2020 14:52:36   #
fetzler Loc: North West PA
 
dennis2146 wrote:
Sent to me by a friend:

Something to ponder.

Dennis


WELCOME TO TOMORROW


THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MOST OR ALL OF THE FOLLOWING WILL BECOME REALITY IN THE NEXT 10-20 YEARS. MANY OF US WON’T SEE THE CHANGES, BUT OUR KIDS AND GRAN - KIDS PROBABLY WILL.

WELCOME TO TOMORROW......!

1- The basic auto repair shops will disappear. Read on to know why.

2- A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor.

3- Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots

4- Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!

5- Gas pumps will go away.

6- Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, they’ve already started in the developed world.

7- Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build only electric cars.

8-Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC! The middle-east is in trouble

9- Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?

10- A baby of today will see personal cars only in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

11- In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?

12- What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years ... and most people don't see it coming.

13- Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these days?

14- Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years.

15- It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

16- Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

17- Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

18- UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world! Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

19- Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

20- Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

21- In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future , (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.

22- Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, it’s 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

23- Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

24- Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car any ’more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.

25- You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

26- This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into green parks.

27- About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.

28- Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

29- Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.

30- Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla and they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.

31- Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

32- Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful affordable locations.

33- Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

34- Cities will have much cleaner air as well.

35- Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

36- Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. And it’s just getting ramped up.

37- Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.

38- Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health

WELCOME TO TOMORROW – some of it actually arrived a few years ago.

And I'm still trying to figure out how to use my cell phone!!
Sent to me by a friend: br br Something to ponder... (show quote)


You need to do a lot more thinking.

Petroleum is used for at lot more that fueling cars and trucks. All things that are made of plastic of one type or another begin as petroleum. This includes the plastic materials in electric cars. Don't forget the tires too. The chemicals that are used to make drugs come from petroleum. Indeed many articles of your clothing are made from petrochemicals.

Both Coal and petroleum have very high energy density and thus are very useful in running heavy machinery needed for industry. It is easy to make electric cars. Indeed this was the most popular type of vehicle just prior to 1900. Electric trucks to haul goods are quite another matter. The energy density of the best available batteries is much much lower than gasoline or diesel . This means that the weight of cargo carried by an electric truck must be much less that carried by a conventional truck.

It should be noted that electric vehicles do poorly in cold environments particularly as drivers like to have heat in their cabins. I have relatives who work where temperatures are below -50 F in the winter. Diesel vehicles cannot be turned off in such environments. It is also dark there for almost 24 hours of day.

It might be mentioned that the manufacture of batteries involves the use of exotic metals. The mining of these materials releases many highly toxic materials into the environment. The metals often must be sourced from our political enemies - China and Russia. The heavy machinery used also requires petroleum.

Windmills require petroleum products in their manufacture and have a rather short life span. Huge concrete pads are used to support that windmills. The concrete pads cannot be reused and likely will remain for thousands of years. Windmills also have devastating effects of bird and bat populations.

Solar cells and and computer chips require coal for their manufacture. It is required for the extraction of silicon from quartz. Solar farms would would have large footprints. The land under the solar farm would be environmentally destroyed. Ultimately, solar and wind power cannot provide enough energy to maintain and industrial society. My ancestor envisioned a society powered by solar, tidal and wind power in 1830. It did not come to pass as these sources cannot provide enough power.

For the purposes of providing electricity, nuclear power can provide large amounts of power but has its own associated risks.

You might note that computers are dumber than the numbskull who programmed it. Computers will find it hard to operate in the highly unpredictable environment found on the roads. Computers will be able to kill people too.

My Chevrolets are already computers on wheels.

Reply
May 26, 2020 15:01:56   #
Architect1776 Loc: In my mind
 
dennis2146 wrote:
Sent to me by a friend:

Something to ponder.

Dennis


WELCOME TO TOMORROW


THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE MOST OR ALL OF THE FOLLOWING WILL BECOME REALITY IN THE NEXT 10-20 YEARS. MANY OF US WON’T SEE THE CHANGES, BUT OUR KIDS AND GRAN - KIDS PROBABLY WILL.

WELCOME TO TOMORROW......!

1- The basic auto repair shops will disappear. Read on to know why.

2- A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are repaired only by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor.

3- Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots

4- Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a car wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!

5- Gas pumps will go away.

6- Street corners will have meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, they’ve already started in the developed world.

7- Smart major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that build only electric cars.

8-Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC! The middle-east is in trouble

9- Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?

10- A baby of today will see personal cars only in museums. The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

11- In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?

12- What happened to Kodak and Polaroid will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years ... and most people don't see it coming.

13- Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these days?

14- Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years.

15- It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

16- Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

17- Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

18- UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world! Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

19- Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

20- Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

21- In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future , (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.

22- Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, it’s 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

23- Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

24- Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won’t want to own a car any ’more as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.

25- You will not need to park it, you will pay only for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

26- This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into green parks.

27- About 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.

28- Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. They will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

29- Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustion engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.

30- Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla and they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.

31- Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

32- Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will abandon their towers to move far away to more beautiful affordable locations.

33- Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

34- Cities will have much cleaner air as well.

35- Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

36- Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact. And it’s just getting ramped up.

37- Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.

38- Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health

WELCOME TO TOMORROW – some of it actually arrived a few years ago.

And I'm still trying to figure out how to use my cell phone!!
Sent to me by a friend: br br Something to ponder... (show quote)


Just another thought.
The Empire State Building uses 9.5 megawatts of electricity a day.
That comes to about 40,000 homes.
Now consider all the buildings in Manhattan and around it and the total electricity used each day.
It takes 4 acres of land to produce 1 MW of electricity.
So who gives up land to power Manhattan?
Do we cover national parks and forests with solar panels?
Then what do you do with the destroyed wildlife that is endangered?
Windmills? They are so unpredictable and high maintenance. At full spin they are about 45% efficient and that rarely happens. So no one can really say how many thousands or millions of windmills would be needed to provide a sustained generation of power.

Reply
May 26, 2020 16:00:52   #
rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA
 
birdman12 wrote:
I concur with some of the above items, but as the manager of a large power utility's energy control center for 17 years and having a professional engineer license as an electrical engineer, I have serious concerns about some of the energy and electricity statements.

Electricity had to be generated. It is primarily consumed as it is generated. We have a few ways to store electric energy, but none of them are ideal. One way is with the use of pumped storage units. However, when the energy is recovered, only approximately 70% is recovered due to inefficiencies in the process. Storing energy in batteries is also not very practical because it would take tremendous size batteries to store significant quantities of energy which would be extremely expensive. There would also be a conversion from AC to DC and then a conversion back to AC. The loss of energy in the use of batteries and the required conversion processes would be very significant. The generation of energy by solar and windmills is realistically very limited To begin with, the cost of constructing the necessary equipment is substantial for the amount of energy that would be received. We only get solar energy for about a half of the day and even that can vary so much. We only get wind energy when the wind is blowing. Also, when the wind speed drops to half speed, we only get a quarter of the energy. What do we do when the wind is not blowing and it is the middle of the night? We have to have other generation to meet the load, which then becomes a double expense. And where does this energy come from to run our electric vehicles - it has to be generated by some form of generating station or device which adds to the load to run our homes and industrial plants, further aggravating the problem. We are going to be dependent upon fossil fuel and nuclear generation for a long time. I am personally afraid of nuclear energy - we have seen what happened at Chernobyl, Fukishima, and Three Mile Island. I know a little about nuclear power since I once held the title of and worked as a nuclear engineer at a Naval Shipyard. There is a lot more involved to some of these "great ideas" than many people understand.
I concur with some of the above items, but as the ... (show quote)

We need to be careful of reaching too many conclusions based on today’s technology. Windmills and batteries have made tremendous progress in the past few years, and we do not know where ingenuity and money will take us.

Reply
May 26, 2020 16:30:45   #
drobvit Loc: Southern NV
 
AirWalter wrote:
I saw a program on PBS a few days ago about Artificial Intelligence and how it will replace so many jobs. When they were talking about health care and the people that will no longer be needed and how fast AI will come up with answer as to what problem a person is having, - - - - - - - - and I started to wonder if they really think AI will replace compassion and caring. It sounds like it will be a cold world.


Welcome to San Angeles!
No Boggles please...Keep JoyJoy thoughts...

Reply
 
 
May 26, 2020 16:40:44   #
dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho
 
fetzler wrote:
You need to do a lot more thinking.

Petroleum is used for at lot more that fueling cars and trucks. All things that are made of plastic of one type or another begin as petroleum. This includes the plastic materials in electric cars. Don't forget the tires too. The chemicals that are used to make drugs come from petroleum. Indeed many articles of your clothing are made from petrochemicals.

Both Coal and petroleum have very high energy density and thus are very useful in running heavy machinery needed for industry. It is easy to make electric cars. Indeed this was the most popular type of vehicle just prior to 1900. Electric trucks to haul goods are quite another matter. The energy density of the best available batteries is much much lower than gasoline or diesel . This means that the weight of cargo carried by an electric truck must be much less that carried by a conventional truck.

It should be noted that electric vehicles do poorly in cold environments particularly as drivers like to have heat in their cabins. I have relatives who work where temperatures are below -50 F in the winter. Diesel vehicles cannot be turned off in such environments. It is also dark there for almost 24 hours of day.

It might be mentioned that the manufacture of batteries involves the use of exotic metals. The mining of these materials releases many highly toxic materials into the environment. The metals often must be sourced from our political enemies - China and Russia. The heavy machinery used also requires petroleum.

Windmills require petroleum products in their manufacture and have a rather short life span. Huge concrete pads are used to support that windmills. The concrete pads cannot be reused and likely will remain for thousands of years. Windmills also have devastating effects of bird and bat populations.

Solar cells and and computer chips require coal for their manufacture. It is required for the extraction of silicon from quartz. Solar farms would would have large footprints. The land under the solar farm would be environmentally destroyed. Ultimately, solar and wind power cannot provide enough energy to maintain and industrial society. My ancestor envisioned a society powered by solar, tidal and wind power in 1830. It did not come to pass as these sources cannot provide enough power.

For the purposes of providing electricity, nuclear power can provide large amounts of power but has its own associated risks.

You might note that computers are dumber than the numbskull who programmed it. Computers will find it hard to operate in the highly unpredictable environment found on the roads. Computers will be able to kill people too.

My Chevrolets are already computers on wheels.
You need to do a lot more thinking. br br Petrole... (show quote)


Sorry my friend but I don't need to do any more thinking at all. I posted something for people to think about and to notice what was going on around us for the future. I thought it was interesting and that is it. Honestly it isn't worth my time to give it more thought than to have posted it for the purpose of enjoyment. That was all it was/is to me. Now if you and others want to go all into the pros and cons of those ideas stated then have at it. I just don't care that much.

Dennis

Reply
May 26, 2020 16:42:12   #
dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho
 
drobvit wrote:
Welcome to San Angeles!
No Boggles please...Keep JoyJoy thoughts...


Hopefully the people who turn on the machines will be compassionate.

Dennis

Reply
May 26, 2020 16:43:58   #
dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho
 
AirWalter wrote:
I saw a program on PBS a few days ago about Artificial Intelligence and how it will replace so many jobs. When they were talking about health care and the people that will no longer be needed and how fast AI will come up with answer as to what problem a person is having, - - - - - - - - and I started to wonder if they really think AI will replace compassion and caring. It sounds like it will be a cold world.


As I told another poster hopefully the compassion and caring will come from the person turning on the machine.

Dennis

Reply
May 26, 2020 16:46:50   #
dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho
 
Bill 45 wrote:
It a cold world now.


Bill what on earth have you been smoking/drinking? Look around you at the compassionate and caring people who are doing all they can to help total strangers get through the virus. Do you not see anything outside of your little world? Did you miss the hundreds of thousands of medical workers who are working long hours with less sleep and food so others can survive? Neighbors while practicing social distancing in many countries singing or doing things to entertain and help others just get through this? Where the hell have you been?

The world is what WE make of it Bill. Maybe you need to open up and let some warmth in. My world is going great for me and I am surrounded by the beauty of strangers every day.

Dennis

Reply
 
 
May 26, 2020 17:12:39   #
letmedance Loc: Walnut, Ca.
 
dennis2146 wrote:
Bill what on earth have you been smoking/drinking? Look around you at the compassionate and caring people who are doing all they can to help total strangers get through the virus. Do you not see anything outside of your little world? Did you miss the hundreds of thousands of medical workers who are working long hours with less sleep and food so others can survive? Neighbors while practicing social distancing in many countries singing or doing things to entertain and help others just get through this? Where the hell have you been?

The world is what WE make of it Bill. Maybe you need to open up and let some warmth in. My world is going great for me and I am surrounded by the beauty of strangers every day.

Dennis
Bill what on earth have you been smoking/drinking?... (show quote)



Reply
May 26, 2020 18:52:30   #
neillaubenthal
 
Solar is heavily subsidized and until power gets more expensive it isn’t an economical solution.

The bigger problem is distribution. The best place for massive solar systems is out in all the mostly empty flyover stares...and the distribution system to get it to the heavily populated areas si ply doesn’t exist and will need trillions in spending to build, not to mention years because the equipment you need to bouillon it and the parts are long lead items and can’t be quickly produced. Same problems with wind.

Self driving cars that navigate snow and rain successfully and don’t make errors a human driver wouldn’t make are years off...as is government approval...and public acceptance.

Reply
May 26, 2020 20:48:26   #
ltj123 Loc: NW Wisconsin
 
Might be faster when the Corona killing off us old people.

Reply
May 26, 2020 20:56:53   #
kevon devins
 
wow --- even if only half of this becomes mainstream reality -- what a massive change in everyday lifestyle we will experience ---------

Reply
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