Just how contagious is COVID-19 (Page 5): I don't know if one's credentials are valid or how accurate the statistics are but it seems to me that this virus is highly infectious and...

BurghByrd Loc: Pittsburgh

I don't know if one's credentials are valid or how accurate the statistics are but it seems to me that this virus is highly infectious and deadly. Social distancing will skew the statistics to our favor, save lives and help those who are trying to help us. We as a community will have tough decisions to make about how and when to open up agian in order to preserve our economy. In the mean time to those of you who are first responders and medical staff in this fight you have my admiration and my thanks.

PGHphoto Loc: Pittsburgh, PA

richandtd wrote:

This is Sobering...
Posted by one of my high school friends Gaye Elder Hodge who is a nurse in the Petoskey or the "up north" area of Michigan (for those of you who are unfamiliar). I hope my friends and family who are pushing back against our governor's shelter in place orders read up and think twice before they complain about not being able to go to their 2nd home or the interruptions in their everyday routine. Be informed, stay safe and stay home! PLEASE

Let me introduce myself: I am a practicing ER doctor with a Bachelors degree in cell and molecular biology/genetics and a Masters degree in public health in addition to my doctorate.
COVID is not a flu. Not even a little. Here are reasons why:
1. It is a separate species. It is no more like influenza than you are like a hippo. DIFFERENT SPECIES.
2. It is an airborne virus. This means the tiny droplets can stay in the air for a full 2 hours. So if a person coughed in aisle 4 of Target 1.5 hours ago, they may be home now but their covid cloud is still hanging there just waiting for you to walk by and take a breath. Influenza is not an airborne virus. It is droplet spread- meaning someone has to directly crop dust you with their sneeze to get you sick. Covid is much more contagious.
3. Covid is more virulent. Virulence factor is a measure of how catchy something is. For example, the flu is like beer. It takes a bunch to get you drunk. Covid is more like tequila - A little goes a long way. You need to suck up a lot of flu particles to actually catch the flu; with covid, even a few particles is enough to infect you.
4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter.
5. Covid has a longer duration of illness than flu. With covid, you have a 5-9 days of blissful asymptomatic contagiousness. This then turns into about 1 week of cough and overall feeling like hell but still surviving. Week 2 is when things hit the fan and people end up unable to breathe and on a ventilator. Many stay on the vent for up to 15 days. 5 days incubating+7 kinda sick days + 15 days on a ventilator makes for 27 days of virus spreading illness, (assuming your don’t just die of massive asphyxiation and body-wide collapse from overwhelming infection somewhere in that last week).The flu has an average incubation of 1-2 days and sick time of 7 days for a total of 9 infectious days. In the world of deadly viruses, that 18 extra days might as well be a millennia.
6. Covid is more deadly. A LOT more deadly. The flu has about a 0.2% mortality rate, meaning 2 of every thousand people who get sick with flu will die. On the contrary, the death rate from covid is reportedly 2%, so 10 times more deadly than flu. Ten times more death seems like a lot more death to me. Whats more worrisome is that 2% is actually incorrect because it doesn’t kill kids so that skews the average. With covid, age is a major factor in survival. If we don’t include people under 30, the death rate for adults is on average 4.5%. 9 out of every 200 adults that get this will die from it. Do you know 200 adults? Do you think losing 9 of them is no big deal? Since mortality increases with age in covid, the risk gets worse as you get older so if we put 100 grannies in a room with covid, only 85 would make it out alive to make pies and tell great stories of the old days... and that just sucks.
I hope that helps to clarify why covid is in no way a flu, why you are in no way a hippo, and why staying home is the only way for non-essential people to do their part while I spend my days at work covered in a plastic poncho, sucking air through a stuffy respirator mask, leaving my scrubs in my driveway, showering the covid off at 4am when I get in, and thinking to myself “now do u still think it was just a flu?” as I risk my own life with my face 2 inches from their highly contagious, gasping mouth while I slide the plastic tube down their throat and start up the ventilator.

This is Sobering... br Posted by one of my high sc... (show quote)

While I agree with the sentiment of the post, there are inaccuracies in the presentation - not the least of which is the 'morbidity' statement. Morbidity cannot be determined if we don't know how many have been infected. I also find it interesting that the writer of the quoted text knows how long the virus can remain airborne when all the actual researchers cannot say with any certainly if the droplets can remain suspended in air for 4 minutes or 4 days. More useless supposition than facts here.

Still best practice is to not be in contact with people if you cannot verify they are not infected.

Retired CPO Loc: Travel full time in an RV

rehess wrote:

You may have made your point before, but not in this post.
Yes, we have to go back to work, but that can happen only after we beat back this virus.
We will beat back this virus, but that will happen only after time of keeping our distance.

Well, we agree about something. "after a time of keeping our distance". How much time before the economy is no longer recoverable? What is the sign that we will use to determine when the virus is beaten back enough so that we can get back to work? Those are the questions that have to be answered. And I'm sure they keep President Trump up during those few hours he tries to get some sleep.

rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA

Retired CPO wrote:

Well, we agree about something. "after a time of keeping our distance". How much time before the economy is no longer recoverable? What is the sign that we will use to determine when the virus is beaten back enough so that we can get back to work? Those are the questions that have to be answered.

The President has presented standards, but I'm not sure how long they will take to attain.
The one thing i am sure of is that we will attain these standards faster if we co-operate.

nervous2 Loc: Provo, Utah

richandtd wrote:

This is Sobering...
Posted by one of my high school friends Gaye Elder Hodge who is a nurse in the Petoskey or the "up north" area of Michigan (for those of you who are unfamiliar). I hope my friends and family who are pushing back against our governor's shelter in place orders read up and think twice before they complain about not being able to go to their 2nd home or the interruptions in their everyday routine. Be informed, stay safe and stay home! PLEASE

Let me introduce myself: I am a practicing ER doctor with a Bachelors degree in cell and molecular biology/genetics and a Masters degree in public health in addition to my doctorate.
COVID is not a flu. Not even a little. Here are reasons why:
1. It is a separate species. It is no more like influenza than you are like a hippo. DIFFERENT SPECIES.
2. It is an airborne virus. This means the tiny droplets can stay in the air for a full 2 hours. So if a person coughed in aisle 4 of Target 1.5 hours ago, they may be home now but their covid cloud is still hanging there just waiting for you to walk by and take a breath. Influenza is not an airborne virus. It is droplet spread- meaning someone has to directly crop dust you with their sneeze to get you sick. Covid is much more contagious.
3. Covid is more virulent. Virulence factor is a measure of how catchy something is. For example, the flu is like beer. It takes a bunch to get you drunk. Covid is more like tequila - A little goes a long way. You need to suck up a lot of flu particles to actually catch the flu; with covid, even a few particles is enough to infect you.
4. Covid has a longer incubation than the flu. When you catch the flu, you typically get sick in the next 1-2 days. This is awesome because it means you stay at home while contagious because you feel like a heap of fried garbage. Covid has a blissful 5-9 days of symptom free time during which you are well enough to head to the movies, gym or mar-a-lago while also being contagious enough to infect everyone you encounter.
5. Covid has a longer duration of illness than flu. With covid, you have a 5-9 days of blissful asymptomatic contagiousness. This then turns into about 1 week of cough and overall feeling like hell but still surviving. Week 2 is when things hit the fan and people end up unable to breathe and on a ventilator. Many stay on the vent for up to 15 days. 5 days incubating+7 kinda sick days + 15 days on a ventilator makes for 27 days of virus spreading illness, (assuming your don’t just die of massive asphyxiation and body-wide collapse from overwhelming infection somewhere in that last week).The flu has an average incubation of 1-2 days and sick time of 7 days for a total of 9 infectious days. In the world of deadly viruses, that 18 extra days might as well be a millennia.
6. Covid is more deadly. A LOT more deadly. The flu has about a 0.2% mortality rate, meaning 2 of every thousand people who get sick with flu will die. On the contrary, the death rate from covid is reportedly 2%, so 10 times more deadly than flu. Ten times more death seems like a lot more death to me. Whats more worrisome is that 2% is actually incorrect because it doesn’t kill kids so that skews the average. With covid, age is a major factor in survival. If we don’t include people under 30, the death rate for adults is on average 4.5%. 9 out of every 200 adults that get this will die from it. Do you know 200 adults? Do you think losing 9 of them is no big deal? Since mortality increases with age in covid, the risk gets worse as you get older so if we put 100 grannies in a room with covid, only 85 would make it out alive to make pies and tell great stories of the old days... and that just sucks.
I hope that helps to clarify why covid is in no way a flu, why you are in no way a hippo, and why staying home is the only way for non-essential people to do their part while I spend my days at work covered in a plastic poncho, sucking air through a stuffy respirator mask, leaving my scrubs in my driveway, showering the covid off at 4am when I get in, and thinking to myself “now do u still think it was just a flu?” as I risk my own life with my face 2 inches from their highly contagious, gasping mouth while I slide the plastic tube down their throat and start up the ventilator.

This is Sobering... br Posted by one of my high sc... (show quote)

Thank you for your advice and for your service. Seriously, thank you!

Retired CPO Loc: Travel full time in an RV

rehess wrote:

The President has presented standards, but I'm not sure how long they will take to attain.
The one thing i am sure of is that we will attain these standards faster if we co-operate.

So you agree that it's time to come over to my side. That's good news.

Overthehill1

Retired CPO wrote:

So you want to get a wake up call when you wake up DEAD broke? And the country is DEAD broke. Guess what, a country that is DEAD broke isn't a country.

Guess what, a country where most of the people are dead isn't a country either.

DennyT Loc: Central Missouri woods

The reason oil producers are reluctant to cut production is technical. When a well is shut off, it often comes back on at a lower production rate that before when turned back on!!

rehess Loc: South Bend, Indiana, USA

Retired CPO wrote:

So you agree that it's time to come over to my side. That's good news.

CNN is interviewing the Governor of Colorado right now.
In talking about the outbreak at a meat packing plant, he said they learned a lot from it.
That particular plant will be back shortly, but under new rules.
I will always support learning like that.

alberio Loc: Casa Grande AZ

I'm with Retired CPO on this, we need to keep the economy going and learn to live with the virus (while doing our best to fight against it).
I know people will say you can't compare Cancer with a infectious virus, but we still live our lives every day with the likelihood we could get cancer in our lives, and it has killed far more people than this virus and there isn't a vaccine for it yet.

TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC

ntonkin wrote:

The problem here is that a person is usually infectious long before they start exhibiting symptoms. That is assuming that the person isn't a "carrier" and never actually comes down with the disease themselves, in which case they go around spreading the virus and never realize what they are doing.

I agree. That is why I said “...and everyone you come in contact with...” One of the reported cases out of China was an asymptomatic individual diner in a restaurant that infected 9 people at his and surrounding tables.

DennyT Loc: Central Missouri woods

Overthehill1 wrote:

Guess what, a country where most of the people are dead isn't a country either.

Turning the economy back on should indeed be a priority . It should be priority #2 after the #1 priority of protecting American lives!

DennyT Loc: Central Missouri woods

Live with the virus ???

. We are averaging over 800 Americans dead ever day since the first American death on 29 Feb.

Retired CPO Loc: Travel full time in an RV

Overthehill1 wrote:

Guess what, a country where most of the people are dead isn't a country either.

What percent of 300 million is 4000? That's a ridiculous statement to make.

Overthehill1

DennyT wrote:

Turning the economy back on should indeed be a priority . It should be priority #2 after the #1 priority of protecting American lives!

Your order of priorities is correct.