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Covid virus and other statistics
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Apr 19, 2020 10:44:11   #
Redmond Loc: Oregon
 
then there are the groups of people protesting the stay at home orders, and our president cheering them on!!!!

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Apr 19, 2020 10:56:48   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
stanikon wrote:
I, for one, did not in any way intend to belittle the virus. I, too, have had a close friend die from it so I know first hand how serious it is. My point was not the virus, but some (not all) of the people involved along with a generous dose of skepticism for the media at large.

One note: deaths from Covid-19 are a serious number but deaths from other causes such as heart attacks, diabetes, etc., are way down everywhere. A coincidence? I think not.


I would just note that deaths from cardiac arrest are up 400% in NYC. Whether this is a direct result of the virus attacking the heart or the lower oxygen sats due to the pneumonia (or??) isn’t clear, but for those of us with cardiac disease, it’s an increased incentive to avoid contracting the virus if at all possible.

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Apr 19, 2020 12:20:47   #
Bridges Loc: Memphis, Charleston SC, now Nazareth PA
 
Longshadow wrote:
Remember when the news was reputable?


I think we can date that back to 1963 with the assassination of President Kennedy. There was so much misinformation and conspiracy theories going around and the new media ate it up. To me that was the turning point -- the downward spiral of our news services.

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Apr 19, 2020 12:42:27   #
srfdude Loc: San Diego
 
cochese wrote:
.........snip........ This will not magically dissappear just because the money mongers of the world want to have wall street raging again. It may in fact be like AIDS and take 40 years to find a truly effective treatment.


It is so disheartening to hear people equate the "economy" with money mongers and wall street. A very short sighted, polarized point of view. No, the economy is 100 million people who aren't working, or working part time, whose savings are being eaten away, landlords who aren't being paid so they can repay their bank loans, etc. It certainly is not whether Bill Gates or Warren Buffet lose or gain a few billions on their investments. My wife and I haven't been able to open our offices for 6 weeks with no end insight; we are still paying our employees a stipend, but that will have to end soon. Then we will be on the bread lines with the rest of the "economy". There is no context to the recent rants, 2018 flu deaths US: 80,000. (CDC) Or also CDC, how about drug deaths US: 67000. The list goes on. This is not to make light of the recent pandemic, rather in the context of life it is another challenge.
Sources: https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/data/statedeaths.html

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Apr 19, 2020 12:49:12   #
d2b2 Loc: Catonsville, Maryland, USA
 
Bridges wrote:
I think we can date that back to 1963 with the assassination of President Kennedy. There was so much misinformation and conspiracy theories going around and the new media ate it up. To me that was the turning point -- the downward spiral of our news services.


I would disagree with you, in part. Yes, there was a lot of misinformation going around at that time. But that was because of the secrecy the Government itself promoted, which caused EVERYONE, media and not, to become alarmed and try to put some sense into the assassination. It was Watergate that caused the real problem, according to a friend of mine who used to be a member of the press throughout all of that. His point was that Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward became heroes and landed positions that no reporters had previously attained. From that point forward, every reporter wanted to land the next Watergate. Nothing was as it seemed to be; the Government and everyone around it had to be dirty and have a crooked agenda. That is really when sensationalism was born, in the press. And the 24-hour format of Fox, CNN and others followed by filling in by putting more and more opinionated pieces into the news in such a way that separating opinion from factual reporting became impossible to decipher.

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Apr 19, 2020 12:53:23   #
CaptainBobBrown
 
Flu stats from CDC are available. Google it. But they are usually estimates because rarely does flu require hospitalization. Mortality rate in 2019 is estimated by CDC for U.S. at .09%, that's 9/100 of 1% or about 32000 out of an estimated 34 million cases in 2019. The reason Covid 19 gets all the attention is it's much higher morbidity and mortality. For example, as of this morning U.S. mortality was running at 5.34% (39,651 deaths out of 742,459 proven cases. The U.S. mortality rate could be higher or lower if only we had testing of many more of the living and not just those so seriously ill they are admitted to ER and/or intensive care.

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Apr 19, 2020 13:47:26   #
SalvageDiver Loc: Huntington Beach CA
 
tfgone wrote:
I see headline news every day of the Covid 19 statistics.
Where are the stats on Flu and common cold deaths or are they just lumping all the stats together under the Covid deaths etc to be sorted out at a later date when they have all the Post Mortem stats.
Just asking


For those wanting to know more about flu statistics, just check the CDC website. It's all that there for all those inquiring minds.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
.
Whether the flu is just as bad, worse or less than Covid-19, I leave up to you to decide.
.
.

This is just one of the data presentations from the CDC website. The data shows that there was a severe flu outbreak in 2017-2018 and the stats of Covid-19 in the 2020 data. So what happened in 2017-2018?
This is just one of the data presentations from th...
(Download)

Here's some info on the 2017-2018 fly season which was quite severe, also resulting in a large number of hospitalizations and deaths. But not as severe as today's Covid problem if you take all the mitigation into account and that this is not over.
Here's some info on the 2017-2018 fly season which...
(Download)

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Apr 19, 2020 14:24:04   #
clint f. Loc: Priest Lake Idaho, Spokane Wa
 
Redmond wrote:
then there are the groups of people protesting the stay at home orders, and our president cheering them on!!!!


I think they are protesting about the irrational rules. You can’t travel to your vacation or second home. I do that twice a week, garage to garage with 1 stop for fuel every 3 weeks. I’d be a criminal in Michigan. You can’t buy seeds to plant a garden. You can buy alcohol and pot but not a gun. You are a criminal if you perform elective surgery unless it is an abortion. You can’t fish, even from your own dock. That is the kind of lunacy they are protesting.

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Apr 19, 2020 14:37:10   #
TriX Loc: Raleigh, NC
 
clint f. wrote:
I think they are protesting about the irrational rules. You can’t travel to your vacation or second home. I do that twice a week, garage to garage with 1 stop for fuel every 3 weeks. I’d be a criminal in Michigan. You can’t buy seeds to plant a garden. You can buy alcohol and pot but not a gun. You are a criminal if you perform elective surgery unless it is an abortion. You can’t fish, even from your own dock. That is the kind of lunacy they are protesting.


Hard to make an accurate blanket statement as the rules vary by state, county and by local govt. For example, here in NC, you can buy both guns and seeds and fish from your own dock. I don’t know if elective surgeries are banned, but anyone who would go near a hospital at this time unless really sick or it’s a necessity is not thinking clearly. On the other hand, there are some local beach communities that are not allowing visitors and there is a lawsuit underway by non residents concerning their right to visit their vacation home.

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Apr 19, 2020 14:49:43   #
Brownie45 Loc: Louisville, Kentucky USA
 
Governor Beshear of Kentucky reported some flu stats. The social distancing has helped decrease the number of flu cases and deaths in Kentucky this year. The health department tracks flu statistics carefully.

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Apr 19, 2020 14:53:05   #
oregon don
 
Longshadow wrote:
Remember when the news was reputable?


I am old enough to remember when the paper came out with "DEWEY WINS!!!"

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Apr 19, 2020 14:53:25   #
sirlensalot Loc: Arizona
 
The question from the OP is a valid one. Comparing statistics is not down playing anything. It is just a comparison of facts and / or figures.

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Apr 19, 2020 14:54:57   #
clint f. Loc: Priest Lake Idaho, Spokane Wa
 
TriX wrote:
Hard to make an accurate blanket statement as the rules vary by state, county and by local govt. For example, here in NC, you can buy both guns and seeds and fish from your own dock. I don’t know if elective surgeries are banned, but anyone who would go near a hospital at this time unless really sick or it’s a necessity is not thinking clearly. On the other hand, there are some local beach communities that are not allowing visitors and there is a lawsuit underway by non residents concerning their right to visit their vacation home.
Hard to make an accurate blanket statement as the ... (show quote)

You are correct. I was referring to Michigan where the protest was recently on the news. My idaho contractor friends are earning money but in Washington they can’t work. In idaho, where I spend most of my time I can’t get a license to fish in the creek in my back yard or in my boat which I could do solo because I require an out of state permit. I can’t even get one by mail. Snowmobilers are turned back from the mountains. Wacky.

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Apr 19, 2020 15:09:05   #
neillaubenthal
 
You're mixing apples and oranges…quoting death rates by age from Corona and then comparing it to the overall influenza death rate…which is actually 0.1% rather than 0.01% from what I just googled but no matter. The problem is that is the overall rate and is not adjusted for age. Flu death rate for > 85 is up at about 1% which is still less than the 10% or so that Corona kills…but again there is a problem with that 10%. Death rate is deaths divided by the number of cases…and we have no idea what the actual number of corona cases is. Since as many as 50% show no symptoms…that would double the denominator and make the >85 death rate 5%. Still high…but then event 50% no symptoms number isn't necessarily accurate. There is simply insufficient data to determine the actual death rate from corona vis-a-vis the flu at this point.

This doesn't mean that corona isn't a big deal…it is…but it is not necessarily as big a deal as the media is making it out to be…it could be…but then again it is apparently subsiding in NY state with far fewer deaths than the governor was predicting as recently as 2 weeks ago…we will really only have some idea of death rate way, way down the road from now.

People should still isolate and stay home though…but the purpose of that is not to save lives. The purpose is to reduce the strain and overload on the health care system. In the long run…the total number of cases and deaths at the end of the pandemic will likely be in the same ballpark regardless of isolation or not…but by spreading the cases and deaths over a longer period of time it will allow the medical system to manage it without being overwhelmed.

There is also a problem with the "total number of corona deaths" in the way it is being reported. Guidance from CDC is that if a person has a positive corona test and dies…they are reported as a corona death…even if they had a heart attack or a car accident or fell out of a window…nope, they're a corona death. Again…the true mortality rate won't be known until after the fact…and again…that doesn't make the virus not a big deal.

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Apr 19, 2020 15:23:38   #
JohnSwanda Loc: San Francisco
 
neillaubenthal wrote:
You're mixing apples and oranges…quoting death rates by age from Corona and then comparing it to the overall influenza death rate…which is actually 0.1% rather than 0.01% from what I just googled but no matter. The problem is that is the overall rate and is not adjusted for age. Flu death rate for > 85 is up at about 1% which is still less than the 10% or so that Corona kills…but again there is a problem with that 10%. Death rate is deaths divided by the number of cases…and we have no idea what the actual number of corona cases is. Since as many as 50% show no symptoms…that would double the denominator and make the >85 death rate 5%. Still high…but then event 50% no symptoms number isn't necessarily accurate. There is simply insufficient data to determine the actual death rate from corona vis-a-vis the flu at this point.

This doesn't mean that corona isn't a big deal…it is…but it is not necessarily as big a deal as the media is making it out to be…it could be…but then again it is apparently subsiding in NY state with far fewer deaths than the governor was predicting as recently as 2 weeks ago…we will really only have some idea of death rate way, way down the road from now.

People should still isolate and stay home though…but the purpose of that is not to save lives. The purpose is to reduce the strain and overload on the health care system. In the long run…the total number of cases and deaths at the end of the pandemic will likely be in the same ballpark regardless of isolation or not…but by spreading the cases and deaths over a longer period of time it will allow the medical system to manage it without being overwhelmed.

There is also a problem with the "total number of corona deaths" in the way it is being reported. Guidance from CDC is that if a person has a positive corona test and dies…they are reported as a corona death…even if they had a heart attack or a car accident or fell out of a window…nope, they're a corona death. Again…the true mortality rate won't be known until after the fact…and again…that doesn't make the virus not a big deal.
You're mixing apples and oranges…quoting death rat... (show quote)


I could understand a heart attack in a someone infected with corona might be considered a corona death, but not car accidents or falling out of a window. I'd like to see where the CDC says that.

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