Pretty Catastrophic Month for Retailers, and Now a Race to Survive: Retail sales plunged in March, offering a grim snapshot of the coronavirus outbreak’s effect on consumer spending...

RixPix Loc: Miami, Florida

Retail sales plunged in March, offering a grim snapshot of the coronavirus outbreak’s effect on consumer spending, as businesses shuttered from coast to coast and wary shoppers restricted their spending.

Total sales, which include retail purchases in stores and online as well as money spent at bars and restaurants, fell 8.7 percent from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The decline was by far the largest in the nearly three decades the government has tracked the data.

Even that bleak figure doesn’t capture the full impact of the sudden economic freeze on the retail industry. Most states didn’t shut down nonessential businesses until late March or early April, meaning data for the current month could be worse still.

“It was a pretty catastrophic drop-off in that back half of the month,” said Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester Research. She said April “may be one of the worst months ever.”

Previously, the largest one-month drop in retail sales came in the fall of 2008, when the financial crisis led spending to plunge nearly 4 percent for two straight months. Sales ended up falling more than 12 percent before they began to recover. The current crisis is on pace to surpass that collapse in a matter of weeks.

Grocery stores, pharmacies and other sellers of essential items saw a surge of demand as consumers stocked up. But that didn’t come close to offsetting the steep drop in sales in virtually every other category. Spending on cars and car parts fell by more than 25 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Sales at gas stations, pushed down by low oil prices as well as reduced commuting, fell 17 percent. And sales at clothing stores fell by more than half.

Now the question is how quickly spending will bounce back once the economy reopens, and how many businesses will survive until then.

Economists often distinguish demand that is deferred because of a crisis from demand that is destroyed. Retail probably has some of each. Someone who needs a new dishwasher might put off the purchase but will probably buy one eventually. But an office worker who puts off her springtime wardrobe refresh might just skip a year, meaning those sales are simply lost.

“Pent-up demand is what drives recoveries, and the good news there is we will come out of this with some degree of pent-up demand,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley. She added, however, that there are “a lot of caveats.”

People who lose jobs won’t quickly resume spending once businesses reopen. And people willing to spend might be reluctant to congregate in malls, restaurants and other businesses that rely on face-to-face contact.

By Sapna Maheshwari and Ben Casselman

Angmo

I’m doing my best. Renovating the kitchen, granite counter tops, new appliances. The works. Also new flooring for the large living room space - getting rid of the rug and place wood looking tile down.

Mostly to get a decent look for photo studio work. I always need to place plywood on the rug to get a decent floor to cover for photo studio work.

Push the economy along, guys. Do what you can.

Architect1776 Loc: In my mind

RixPix wrote:

Retail sales plunged in March, offering a grim snapshot of the coronavirus outbreak’s effect on consumer spending, as businesses shuttered from coast to coast and wary shoppers restricted their spending.

Total sales, which include retail purchases in stores and online as well as money spent at bars and restaurants, fell 8.7 percent from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The decline was by far the largest in the nearly three decades the government has tracked the data.

Even that bleak figure doesn’t capture the full impact of the sudden economic freeze on the retail industry. Most states didn’t shut down nonessential businesses until late March or early April, meaning data for the current month could be worse still.

“It was a pretty catastrophic drop-off in that back half of the month,” said Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester Research. She said April “may be one of the worst months ever.”

Previously, the largest one-month drop in retail sales came in the fall of 2008, when the financial crisis led spending to plunge nearly 4 percent for two straight months. Sales ended up falling more than 12 percent before they began to recover. The current crisis is on pace to surpass that collapse in a matter of weeks.

Grocery stores, pharmacies and other sellers of essential items saw a surge of demand as consumers stocked up. But that didn’t come close to offsetting the steep drop in sales in virtually every other category. Spending on cars and car parts fell by more than 25 percent in March, seasonally adjusted. Sales at gas stations, pushed down by low oil prices as well as reduced commuting, fell 17 percent. And sales at clothing stores fell by more than half.

Now the question is how quickly spending will bounce back once the economy reopens, and how many businesses will survive until then.

Economists often distinguish demand that is deferred because of a crisis from demand that is destroyed. Retail probably has some of each. Someone who needs a new dishwasher might put off the purchase but will probably buy one eventually. But an office worker who puts off her springtime wardrobe refresh might just skip a year, meaning those sales are simply lost.

“Pent-up demand is what drives recoveries, and the good news there is we will come out of this with some degree of pent-up demand,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley. She added, however, that there are “a lot of caveats.”

People who lose jobs won’t quickly resume spending once businesses reopen. And people willing to spend might be reluctant to congregate in malls, restaurants and other businesses that rely on face-to-face contact.

By Sapna Maheshwari and Ben Casselman

Retail sales plunged in March, offering a grim sna... (show quote)

The recovery is dependent upon citizens like those in MI did today saying enough is enough.

RixPix Loc: Miami, Florida

Angmo wrote:

I’m doing my best. Renovating the kitchen, granite counter tops, new appliances. The works. Also new flooring for the large living room space - getting rid of the rug and place wood looking tile down.

Mostly to get a decent look for photo studio work. I always need to place plywood on the rug to get a decent floor to cover for photo studio work.

Push the economy along, guys. Do what you can.

I heartily suggest you go with quartz instead of granite.

It is more durable, doesn’t stain, and requires zero maintenance other than cleaning with virtually any of the common cleaners including those with bleach.

RixPix Loc: Miami, Florida

Architect1776 wrote:

The recovery is dependent upon citizens like those in MI did today saying enough is enough.

Of course that’s true as long as no one else dies.

DaveO Loc: Northeast CT

RixPix wrote:

I heartily suggest you go with quartz instead of granite.

It is more durable, doesn’t stain, and requires zero maintenance other than cleaning with virtually any of the common cleaners including those with bleach.

Angmo

RixPix wrote:

I heartily suggest you go with quartz instead of granite.

It is more durable, doesn’t stain, and requires zero maintenance other than cleaning with virtually any of the common cleaners including those with bleach.

Ya thanks. Been going round and round on that topic. Haven’t found this look though.

Sealing tech for granite has vastly improved, but you are correct. Quartz is ground up and uses resins to make its look. It’s Less natural with those fillers. I do worry about hot pans working into the quartz resins over time.

Trade offs with whatever materials are used. I prefer a natural looking material with patterns only nature can provide. I plan to maintain the surface every 6 months. They’re going to make a cutting board or two for the project too.

DaveO Loc: Northeast CT

Watch your step with hot pans on the granite as well.

Angmo

DaveO wrote:

Watch your step with hot pans on the granite as well.

Yep. He’s making a few cutting boards and we always use hot pads anyway.

I do worry about liquids as granite is porous versus nice tidy quartz...

DaveO Loc: Northeast CT

We spent a lot of time picking out the granite slab years ago, but we just ordered quartz for another room re-do...nice but no real personality.

Angmo

DaveO wrote:

We spent a lot of time picking out the granite slab years ago, but we just ordered quartz for another room re-do...nice but no real personality.

Thats my main concern. Good word. Personality.

DaveO Loc: Northeast CT

Angmo wrote:

Thats my main concern. Good word. Personality.

Actually it's quite right for us, as I haven't one either.

Angmo

DaveO wrote:

Actually it's quite right for us, as I haven't one either.

Isn’t it funny. On payday, all us guys have plenty of personality. But as the week goes by, we have less. The day before, we've none.

DaveO Loc: Northeast CT

Angmo wrote:

Isn’t it funny. On payday, all us guys have personality. But as the week goes by, we have less. The day before, we've none.

LOL! Remember, "I ruv you GI, specially on payday."

RixPix Loc: Miami, Florida

Angmo wrote:

Ya thanks. Been going round and round on that topi... (show quote)

Quartz is rated for 451 degrees.

One missed lemon seed and you got a pit in the stone for granite.

Check Costco for quartz.

You will regret getting a dark counter. It happens to more than half of the people. I do layouts and consulting for a local cabinet maker.