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Experts and Their Models Continue Lowering Predicted Deaths from COVID-19
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Apr 10, 2020 14:03:29   #
Daryls Loc: Waco, TX
 
burkphoto wrote:
Sometimes, a little fear and mass hysteria go a long way to actually bringing about change.

Hindsight is always better than foresight. I love it when the outcome is better than the prediction. In business, I would always like to have an accurate prediction, but would MUCH rather underpromise and overdeliver, or be under budget and over the profit prediction that the other ways around.

If there is any lesson in this, it is to take the early warning signs of an impending pandemic more seriously, and earlier. Reacting politically instead of strategically and medically was a huge mistake in many countries. I think Boris Johnson has learned that lesson. Others still need to learn it.
Sometimes, a little fear and mass hysteria go a lo... (show quote)



I agree with that Burkphoto. "I love it when the outcome is better than the prediction." What I don't like is going overboard on mitigation that makes the cure worse than the disease. Dealing with uncertainty is difficult for most people. Making good decisions under conditions of uncertainty is extremely difficult for everyone.

As for taking actions earlier, how soon is early enough? That is a great question. And whose prediction do we work with? Another great question. For a pandemic, the US military predicted in 2017 the a flu pandemic was the worst threat for military readiness. Should we have acted to the extremes on that prediction back in 2017? What about all the predictions in 1999 for Y2K and all the destruction and chaos that was going to cause. Should we have acted to the extremes for that event?

There are tons of examples throughout history we could examine. The problem remain the same - deciding and then acting under conditions of uncertainty and what price are we willing to pay to mitigate against a threat that might not occur. A cost-benefit analysis.

Daryl

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Apr 10, 2020 14:12:59   #
Ollieboy
 
Haenzel wrote:
You don't have to believe them, we can easily do without them.

There is enough evidence of global warming around you....
You just need to be willing to see it instead of pretending to be blind....


Global "Climate Change" has been around from the beginning of time. Millions of years before people roamed the Earth. Most people don't deny it exists but do deny it's man made. Let the games begin.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:15:14   #
Ollieboy
 
dennis2146 wrote:
It has been a long time since anyone has claimed climate change is a hoax. But there you are as a Liberal still making that claim.

No climate change is not a hoax. The difference of opinion though is the Left continues to claim that climate change is brought on by MAN doing its natural thing living on the planet. Those with common sense claim climate change is simply a naturally occurring event that has taken place continually since the planet was formed Billions of years ago. The earth has continued to heat up and cool. This is easily explained and proven from the Ice Age and the period from when dinosaurs roamed the planet when it was warmer.

So the argument is NOT whether there is climate change but what causes it. You Left Wingers would have America and every other country pay Trillions of dollars into some fund that is supposed to stop climate change. But if the earth is just doing its thing then no amount of money will stop climate change and the money will just be wasted to soothe some Liberal's idea of doing, SOMETHING, to make things right. In any event those of us on the planet right now would never see an appreciable difference and you know it.

Dennis
It has been a long time since anyone has claimed c... (show quote)

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Apr 10, 2020 14:19:06   #
Ollieboy
 
olemikey wrote:
No it won't change if we keep pumping carbon into the atmosphere. No we can't change it in two weeks or two years, maybe not for several decades....but if we do nothing, is that acceptable? Just because one solar flare or supervolcano could wipe us out is not an excuse to ignore what we are doing, we at least can implement change...nature/the planet, etc. is going to do what it always does. Perhaps the best course is to accept the eventual climate (fail for human occupation) fail as the key to planetary population reduction. It works, but the outcome is sad.

We will (if not already) reach a tipping point for population growth anyway, as the planet and ecosystems simply will not be able to support a population growing at <billion a year, even if the fires don't consume the forests and rain forests, the water doesn't flood many lands and islands, the heat doesn't eliminate farm crops, the weather doesn't destroy us, we don't bomb ourselves into oblivion, famine and lack of potable water will ignite further aggression/war/disease that may take care of all of us.

Me, I'm for sustainable, renewable, non-destructive energy...the dirty old coal (which is piling up as we post, cause no one wants it), and oil make great quick energy, and makes a very few a great deal of money, but it's time has come and gone, it is time for cheap, efficient, sustainable, renewable energy for the future, for all of us. Anything that causes poisoning/trashing of our water sources also has to go.
No it won't change if we keep pumping carbon into ... (show quote)


Climate change and pollution are two different discussions. When they are conflated it just proves the point that climate change cannot be controlled.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:21:46   #
Ollieboy
 
TriX wrote:
And when we run out of fossil fuels (which will certainly happen), your solution to our energy needs is?


By that time the "Flux Capacitor" will be in every kitchen.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:28:11   #
Architect1776 Loc: In my mind
 
Daryls wrote:
Nine days ago, the experts predicted about 160,000 deaths. Then on Tuesday, the IHME estimated about 82,000 people will die from coronavirus disease by August. On Wednesday, that estimate was lowered again to 60,415. I expect the predictions to be lowered again and again before this is over.

The CDC experts estimate 24,000 – 63,000 flu deaths from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020.

The experts and their models are drastically lowering their predicted death numbers because the assumptions they based the original predictions on were wrong, as were subsequent assumptions, along with limited data sets used for widespread predictions. That is why model predictions are so far off from reality. Just think about all the hurricane models and their inaccuracy. Think also about all the lottery models using advanced scientific methods and still cannot predict the winning numbers after more than 25 years of real detailed data.

Models are good for thinking about what-if contingencies. They are good for planning. Often, they are poor tools for actual response. To use any model's predictions successfully, we need to understand the underlying assumptions and the limitations of the data sets. Then the results need to be tested for sensitivity.

Since the experts do not really know (they are surmising only or guessing) why the numbers are going down, the model's underlying assumptions cannot be accurately adjusted. That is just the way models work.

My advice is to take any model's predictions with a huge grain of salt and a lot of critical thinking before taking any action based on its results. Do not allow fear of the unknown or mass hysteria to drive your into taking extreme actions you may later regret.

Daryl
Nine days ago, the experts predicted about 160,000... (show quote)


It is coming out today in some sources that the Virus deaths should be much lower. Doctors apparently were advised to say the death was caused by the virus when it was actually a heart attack by a person that just tested positive with the virus so the virus was listed as the cause when it had nothing to do with it.
Once we get the true numbers all we see now is just BS. Also comparing the number of cases to Spain is also really stupid seeing as the USA has over 7 times the population as Spain. One needs to multiply the numbers of Spain by over 7 to get a real comparison. Finally some of these field hospitals that were hurriedly set up thus far have remained empty. The Ship to NYC had I believe 20 patients all non-Virus.
Looks like a big scam to me so far.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:30:43   #
Ollieboy
 
DocDav wrote:
Climate change is not man made. it does seem to he accelerated by man made industry


What happened many years after the major oil spill in the Gulf. Nothing. The fishing industry is thriving there after all the alarmists claimed otherwise. Mother Earth does not need our help to repair itself. It's arrogant to think we humans have any effect on Climate Change. It seems to be doing ok after all the natural and made made calamaties over time.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:32:36   #
CWGordon
 
Of course, it takes time to develop things. However, WHO offerred us quite a bit of help. This leader declined to accept it. We had a Pandemic Task Force, in place, established during the last Admin. This leader quickly made moves to get rid of it. This Admin. says the last Admin. is at fault for shortages. We have had more than 3 1/2 years to get caught up. Not one effort was made to “restock the shelves” during those 3 1/2 years. The current President says no one saw it coming, but he was warned several times in January, by his own top-advisors, that it was coming. He was still politicizing it as a Democratic “hoax” to “bring him down” until later in March. He thinks his blockade of Chinese was great. So many loopholes existed it stopped almost no one. In the meantime, the biggest portion of the problem in NY was caused by England and its’ travelers. England was the last Country he wanted to block. His efforts today amount to being a “Cheerleader” (his word, not mine). He wants the credit as if he was a war-time President. As if he has “led” anything. When was the last time he Cheered, rather than jeered anyone on? His daily political rallyes are just that. Pass the blame to anyone he can think of and deny any responsibility for anything. It wouldn’t be quite so bad if he could speak in complete sentences or make understandable comments. However, he is not capable of that. It is the Fed that is supposed to be a “supply clerk” in times like these. If you do it for a hurricane or flood, why would it not be your responsibility to do it (or, at least some REAL effort) during a Pandemic? Really, stop excusing everything this guy does wrong. Be objective. Try thinking things through. Listen to news stations other than those you normally choose to put on your radio or TV. Watch BBC or something with different perspective. Try logic. Stop using nasty language and hatred when labeling things YOU might believe are wrong. Stop insinuating and speculating on what sick people might be thinking. Stop insisting you are the only ones that could possibly be correct and that anyone and everyone with a different outlook or belief is dense or selfish. You might lower your blood pressure that way and maybe live longer so you can annoy people like me a little longer.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:42:17   #
dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho
 
andesbill wrote:
So you think that the only scientists that are wrong, are the ones that disagree with you. And that’s greater than 99% of all climate scientists.
But don’t worry about spending the trillions of dollars that are necessary if we want to clean up the garbage we are putting into the atmosphere, the land, and our waters. We just spent it on what many of you right wingers called “no worse than the common cold”, “it’s just the flu folks”.
Currently, this ‘common cold’ is killing greater than 2% of all that have tested positive. The flu kills less than .1% of those tested, except when there is a novel flu virus like the Spanish flu, the 1957 strain, and H1N1.
Anyhow, one way or another our children & grandchildren are going to pay both for COVID19 and environmental mess we are leaving them.
The difference is, my grandkids will know I am doing everything I can to leave them a better world, and you are doing whatever you can to make things worse.
So you think that the only scientists that are wro... (show quote)


Why is it you Left Wingers always claim that we on the right are doing all we can to make things worse? That is a common theme especially before elections. No matter that my opinion may differ from yours there is no evidence at all that I or other Conservatives WANT to ruin the world. How easily you on the Left forget we have children and grandchildren just as you do. We want the best for them too. But our ideas do differ from yours.

Your side claims without proof that climate change is man made despite millions of years of evidence that the earth has been changing since its first day as a planet. You claim 99% of scientists are on your side. First of all I disagree with that statement and would add that there are many scientists who have admitted to going along with your 99% only to continue being given some type of government grant money. If they did not go along with your scientists there would be no grant money. Also I claim that 100% of scientists will agree that the earth has been changing all on its own since the dawn of time. Prove me wrong.

Also here you are in the very same paragraph talking about climate change AND the virus that is sweeping the planet. One has nothing to do with the other except for your false claims. Right now the plain ordinary annual flu has killed over twice the amount of people that Covid19 has killed. And yet the news media and you Left Wingers are ONLY interested in the Covid19 virus so as to show negatives about what President Trump is doing to handle the situation. While there is enough blame to go around for at least the past three administrations you concentrate only on this administration.

As Americans we can depend on a couple of things; you on the Left will milk this situation all you can to show President Trump as bad for one of them. For the other we can depend on the American people do continue doing all necessary to get over this situation and then most importantly, get PAST this situation to rebuild the country.

Take just a minute to tell us WTF you on the Left are doing to help out other than constant whining and bitching.

Dennis

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Apr 10, 2020 14:44:55   #
CWGordon
 
Most people do not deny global climate change and most people believe the biggest reason/cause is man-made. To a large degree we can manage this problem. The greatest changes have been relatively late or recent in this milennium. Minor temp changes, on average, make huge differences in the extremes (floods, storms, droughts, etc.) our weather produces. This is almost universally accepted and agreed upon by scientists. Were the scientists saying this, after years of research, closer to 1-10%, instead of 99%, I might not be quite as comfortable with their position. 99% is a number used in legal systems to equate to “proof beyond a REASONABLE doubt.” That happens to be enough for me, as well as a huge majority of Americans who similarly believe.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:48:25   #
Haenzel Loc: South Holland, The Netherlands
 
Architect1776 wrote:
The Ship to NYC had I believe 20 patients all non-Virus.
Looks like a big scam to me so far.


From what I've heard "The Ship to NYC" is not allowed to take Corona-infected people on board.

The figures will never be correct. Not every death person with Corona will have died from it, also not every death person has been tested and has therefore not been registered as Corona victim.

In the Netherlands we have 2000 more deaths since the outbreak compared to recent previous years.
Fair to conclude these are caused by Covid-19. Data analysis will tell the truth.

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Apr 10, 2020 14:50:25   #
DocDav Loc: IN
 
Architect1776 wrote:
It is coming out today in some sources that the Virus deaths should be much lower. Doctors apparently were advised to say the death was caused by the virus when it was actually a heart attack by a person that just tested positive with the virus so the virus was listed as the cause when it had nothing to do with it.
Once we get the true numbers all we see now is just BS. Also comparing the number of cases to Spain is also really stupid seeing as the USA has over 7 times the population as Spain. One needs to multiply the numbers of Spain by over 7 to get a real comparison. Finally some of these field hospitals that were hurriedly set up thus far have remained empty. The Ship to NYC had I believe 20 patients all non-Virus.
Looks like a big scam to me so far.
It is coming out today in some sources that the Vi... (show quote)


I think calling it a scam is probably dis-ingenuous Architect. If a patient has stable angina, just to use an example, and gets ill with Covid-19, and his angina worsens, and the patient decompensates, then the cause of death is Covid-19. Most Covid 19 patients die from a pneumonia like complication. This is a SARS type virus, actually the real name is SARS Corona Virus 19 (19 for the year). Covid is the disease caused by that virus.

So, if the patient got Covid 19 and then died from Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome, do you call the death a death from Respiratory Arrest or from Covid? That's the dilemma. That does not make it a scam. Medical science has to have a coherent method of recording deaths. This is the one they have chosen.

IT would be more clear if the patient had an ongoing toe nail and got Covid 19 and died from SARS. No one would claim said patient died from the ingrown toe nail. Same applies to all other disease.

David

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Apr 10, 2020 14:52:25   #
CWGordon
 
Dennis: Frankly, I don’t care if you agree. I don’t think I will ever change your mind. You disagree with what I believe and that is your right. I just get annoyed with what I see as willful denial of commonly held principles and be liefs.
I do not think you want to make this planet worse for children and grandchildren. You are probably a good and caring person. I only wish you could read and listen more open-mindedly to those whose opinion may be different. We all need to listen better to others. I try. It does not seem to me that you try. That is my opinion and, who knows, maybe I have it all wrong!

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Apr 10, 2020 14:55:34   #
sirlensalot Loc: Arizona
 
By comparison, 157,000 +- people in the U.S. die EACH MONTH from a collection of the more commonly known diseases. Heart related, COPD, pneumonia, diabetes, cancer, and several others that hardly tick the news anymore with the possible exceptions of the obituary page and TV solicitations for "research" donations. I guess my point is that it seems we hear so much about individual diseases, but seldom get an overall view of the statistics of what is adding to our demise. Granted many are caused by individual choices we make that may result in dependencies that eventually lead to death, but is this any worse than a very bad flu season that results in pneumonia and death. Yearly 450 million people around the world contract the flu and about 45 million die from flu complications every year. Without a doubt, we are facing a killer of mass proportions, but is it any worse than what the world faces each year? Are we missing seeing the forest for the trees?

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Apr 10, 2020 15:07:35   #
dennis2146 Loc: Eastern Idaho
 
CWGordon wrote:
Dennis: Frankly, I don’t care if you agree. I don’t think I will ever change your mind. You disagree with what I believe and that is your right. I just get annoyed with what I see as willful denial of commonly held principles and be liefs.
I do not think you want to make this planet worse for children and grandchildren. You are probably a good and caring person. I only wish you could read and listen more open-mindedly to those whose opinion may be different. We all need to listen better to others. I try. It does not seem to me that you try. That is my opinion and, who knows, maybe I have it all wrong!
Dennis: Frankly, I don’t care if you agree. I don... (show quote)


And I am wondering what PROOF you are submitting that I am denying. Commonly held principles and beliefs are often proven wrong. I agree there is climate change. But so far there is no proof that it is caused by man. Give me/us the evidence that it is man made. I am happy to listen. But consider that in the 1930's there was a newspaper comment that the streets of NYC would be flooded. Al Gore has made millions of dollars telling us the very same thing, flooded streets, polar bears dying and so on. But so far not one bit of that is true. Weather forecasters/scientists cannot predict the weather for the oncoming week and yet you want us to believe that your scientists will predict the weather for the next 50 years or so. Sorry but I just don't buy it. Again, prove me wrong. Show me where weather predictors can accurately predict the weather for even the next week or month.

I live in Idaho. When looking at a weather predictor for Idaho Falls last week it showed snow falling for the next few days. A day later the sun was out and no snow with temperatures in the 50's. Now tell me how you are not intelligent enough to look at that and at least wonder where do they get their figures, how can these people predict the weather in years to come when they can't accurately predict for the next week.

I am not trying to give you a hard time but I am damn tired of you Liberals telling me I am stupid all because I don't go along with your claims which you are unable to prove. Your only recourse is to tell me that a whole lot of scientists believe in the very same horse shit theory you believe in. Quantity does not make quality in my experience. You are talking mob rule to go along with Al Gore and he has yet to be proven correct. Yet you on the Left still promote the very same horse shit claims from years ago.

Dennis

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