Blurryeyed Loc: NC Mountains.

Trump leading Biden in an ABC/Washington Post Poll by 9 points?

Not really an affirmation of Trump but a loud affirmation of just how pissassed poorly Biden has managed his administration. Just one disaster after another.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/troubles-biden-age-reelection-campaign-poll/story?id=103436611&mc_cid=f4d249874b&mc_eid=UNIQID

scooter1 Loc: Yacolt, Wa.

Now watch Biden win with 100 million votes and the liberals will be dancing in the streets without questions on how.

Wyantry Loc: SW Colorado

Talk about Projection!

But it is just a personal WISH of Scooter — NOT a fact.

FrumCA

I read a piece today that opines if RFK, Jr. ran for president as an independent he would take so many votes from biden that he would have zero percent chance of winning. This "opinion" may well turn into fact!!

Wyantry Loc: SW Colorado

Yes. Well, it is not too late. . . . .

Now who could be found to do the same for Trump?

National Park

Polls are meaningless at this point. Another poll shows the two of them dead even.

Wyantry Loc: SW Colorado

There are reasons polls are meaningless — at this or any other point — which are related to two major points:

1). An insufficient sample size or number (n). Most similar political polls sample approximately 1800 to 2200 individual, the predictive statistics are employed to INFER an outcome for the entire electorate population (300 000 +) with a specific degree of accuracy.
With a larger sample size, estimated outcome error decreases. However, sampling costs money; pollsters (and their clients) are not likely to expend monies in order to acquire a better set of data — accepting an error of plus-or-minus ~4 to ~7 percentage points.

And,

2). There is rarely a truly RANDOMIZED sample set. For example: A poll conducted in a predominantly Democrat-liberal run state or locality would draw upon a population that would give quite different data than any identical sampling in a Republican-conservative dominated area.

Conclusion: Polls do not indicate SQUAT if not adequately randomized and of sufficient size.

Blurryeyed Loc: NC Mountains.

This poll clearly is an outlier but what we should all recognize is that Joe is sinking fast and beyond that Kamala is a anchor tied to his leg, the thought of "President Harris" scares the hell out of more than 1/2 the country.

National Park

Again, polls are meaningless at this point. Much can, and will, happen between now and then. Suppose, for instance, that Trump is convicted of something. Or Biden has a stroke. Or Trump has a stroke... Or there is an international crisis that Biden resolves, or doesn't resolve. Or the economy rebounds. Or we enter a recession... If polls this far in advance of Presidential elections were accurate we would have had Presidents Kerry and Romney. How did that work out for them?

rwoodvira

I think some people may be contrary like me and give the opposite answer when polled.